Curve Ball

by Albert, Jim

• ISBN13: 9780387001937
• ISBN10: 038700193X
• Edition: Revised
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-04-01
• Publisher: Copernicus Books

Summary

Updated with data from the 2002 season, and with new essays on superstar Barry Bonds and the first ever all- Wild-Card World Series, this new paperback edition of the 2001 SABR-Award-winning original hardcover explains why standard statistics are of limited usefulness in evaluating a player, developing an inning-by-inning strategy, or predicting which team will come out on top. The authors' most significant contribution to the seemingly endless arguments about baseball stats is their inclusion of the statistical principles of probability to analyze the game and the players.

Table of Contents

Preface to the Paperback Edition	xiii
Introduction	xv
Simple Models from Tabletop Baseball Games	1	(26)
All-Star Baseball (ASB)	1	(8)
Model Assumptions of All-Star Baseball	8	(1)
The APBA Model: Introducing the Pitcher	9	(6)
Start-O-Matic Baseball: The Independent Model	15	(5)
Sports Illustrated Baseball: The Interactive Model	20	(4)
Which Model Is Best?	24	(3)
Exploring Baseball Data	27	(24)
Exploring Hitting Data	27	(7)
A Batch of On-Base Percentages	28	(1)
Simple Graphs	29	(2)
Typical Values---the Mean and the Median	31	(1)
Measures of Spread---Quartiles and the Standard Deviation	32	(2)
Interesting Values	34	(1)
Comparing Groups	34	(4)
A Five-Number Summary	35	(1)
A Boxplot	35	(1)
Boxplots to Compare Groups	35	(2)
OBPs of Offensive and Defensive Players	37	(1)
Relationships Between Batting Measures	38	(3)
Relating OBP and SLG	39	(1)
Relating OBP and Isolated Power	39	(2)
What about Pitching Data?	41	(10)
Strikeouts and Walks	42	(1)
Looking at Strikeout Totals	43	(1)
Defining a Strikeout Rate	44	(3)
Comparing Strikeout Rates of Starters and Relievers	47	(1)
Association Between Strikeouts and Walks?	48	(1)
Exploring Walk Rates	49	(1)
Comparing Walk Rates of Starters and Relievers	50	(1)
Introducing Probability	51	(20)
Beyond Data Analysis	51	(6)
Looking for Real Effects	53	(2)
Predicting OBPs	55	(2)
Probability Models	57	(14)
A Coin-Toss Model	57	(2)
Observed and True OBPs	59	(3)
Learning about Batting Ability	62	(4)
Estimating Batting Ability Using a Confidence Interval	66	(2)
Comparing Hitters	68	(3)
Situational Effects	71	(40)
Surveying the Situation	72	(7)
Looking for Real Effects	74	(1)
Observed and True Batting Averages	75	(3)
Batting Averages of the 1998 Regulars	78	(1)
Two Models for Batting Averages	79	(7)
A .276 Spinner Model	79	(1)
Do All Players Have the Same Ability?	80	(1)
A Model Using a Set of Random Spinners	81	(5)
Situational Effects	86	(1)
Home vs. Away	86	(1)
Turf vs. Grass	87	(1)
The Count	87	(1)
Opposite Arm vs. Same Arm	87	(1)
Models for Situational Effects	87	(5)
Scenario 1 (No Situational Effect)	89	(1)
Scenario 2 (Situational Bias)	90	(1)
Scenario 3 (Situational Effect Depends on Ability)	91	(1)
Finding Good Models	92	(16)
What Do Observed Situational Effects Look Like When There Is No Effect?	93	(2)
The Last Five Years' Data	95	(1)
The ``No Effect'' Situations	96	(2)
The ``Bias'' Situations	98	(3)
The ``Ability'' Situations	101	(5)
How Large Are the True Ability Effects?	106	(1)
Game Situation Effects	107	(1)
A Lot of Noise	108	(3)
Streakiness (or, the Hot Hand)	111	(34)
Thinking about Streakiness	112	(2)
Interpreting Baseball Data	114	(6)
Moving Averages---Looking at Short Intervals	116	(3)
Runs of Good and Bad Games	119	(1)
Numbers of Good and Poor Hitting Days	120	(1)
What Is Zeile's True Hitting Ability?	120	(14)
Mr. Consistent	121	(1)
How Does Mr. Consistent Perform During a Season?	122	(4)
Mr. Streaky	126	(3)
How Does Mr. Streaky Perform During a Season?	129	(2)
Mr. Consistent or Mr. Streaky?	131	(3)
Team Play	134	(9)
A Consistent Team	138	(2)
A Streaky Team	140	(3)
Thinking about Streakiness---Again	143	(2)
Measuring Offensive Performance	145	(32)
The Great Quest	146	(19)
Runs Scored per Game	148	(5)
Batting Average and Runs Scored per Game	153	(3)
Slugging Percentage and On-Base Percentage	156	(9)
Intuitive Techniques	165	(8)
On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS)	166	(1)
Total Average (TA)	166	(2)
Batter's Run Average (BRA) and Scoring Index (DX)	168	(3)
Runs Created (RC)	171	(2)
More Analytic Models	173	(4)
Average Runs Per Play	177	(30)
Finding Weights for Plays	177	(1)
Least Squares Linear Regression (LSLR)	178	(11)
Adding Caught Stealing to the LSLR Model	184	(3)
Adding Sacrifice Flies to the LSLR Model	187	(2)
The Lindsey--Palmer Models	189	(13)
George Lindsey's Analysis	189	(11)
Palmer Enters the Picture	200	(2)
Comparing the LSLR and Lindsey--Palmer Models	202	(5)
The Curvature of Baseball	207	(36)
The DLSI Simulation Model	208	(18)
The Probability of Scoring Two Runs	209	(2)
The Probability of Scoring No Runs	211	(4)
A DLSI Example	215	(3)
Lessons from the Simulation	218	(6)
DLSI and Runs per Play	224	(2)
Where Do We Stand?	226	(4)
Additive Models	227	(1)
Product Models	228	(2)
Player Evaluations in the Best Models	230	(3)
Player Evaluations on an Average Team	233	(7)
Sorting Out Strengths and Weaknesses	240	(3)
Making Sense of Baseball Strategy	243	(24)
What's Wrong with Baseball?	243	(1)
Lindsey's Run Potential Table	244	(2)
Old vs. New Data	245	(1)
A Second Important Table	246	(1)
Stealing Second Base	247	(6)
To Steal or Not to Steal	249	(2)
A Different Criterion	251	(1)
Stealing in Other Situations	252	(1)
The Sacrifice Bunt	253	(7)
Sacrifice Bunts in the 2001 World Series	255	(1)
Managers Do and Don't Like to Sacrifice	255	(2)
Should Curt Schilling Sacrifice?	257	(1)
How About Craig Counsell?	258	(2)
The Intentional Walk	260	(7)
Compare the Costs	261	(3)
Some Caveats	264	(3)
Measuring Clutch Play	267	(56)
Clutch Hits	269	(8)
Leading Off an Inning vs. Not Leading Off	273	(1)
Runners in Scoring Position vs. Bases Empty	273	(1)
Runner in Scoring Position vs. Runner on First Base Only	273	(2)
Two Outs vs. None/One Out	275	(1)
Late Inning Pressure vs. No Late Inning Pressure	275	(1)
A Player in a Short Series	275	(2)
Situation Evaluation of Run Production	277	(7)
A New Criterion for Performance	284	(7)
The Calculation of Win Probabilities	291	(5)
Player Game Percentage (PGP)	296	(7)
World Series Most Valuable Players	303	(4)
The 2002 World Series	307	(15)
Game 1	311	(2)
Game 2	313	(2)
Game 3	315	(1)
Game 4	316	(2)
Game 5	318	(1)
Game 6	319	(2)
Game 7	321	(1)
Looking to the Future	322	(1)
Prediction	323	(26)
Predicting Game Results	323	(6)
Guessing	324	(1)
Picking the Home Team	324	(1)
A ``Team Strengths'' Prediction Model	324	(1)
Predicting 1999 Game Results	325	(2)
How Good Were Our Predictions?	327	(2)
Predicting the Number of McGwire and Sosa Home Runs	329	(2)
A Simple Prediction Method	330	(1)
What's Wrong with This Prediction?	330	(1)
A Spinner Model for Home-Run Hitting	331	(12)
How Many At-Bats?	332	(1)
What If We Knew Sosa's True Home-Run Rate?	332	(1)
Binomial Probabilities	333	(1)
What If We Don't Know Sosa's True Home-Run Rate?	334	(2)
Revising Our Beliefs about Sosa's Home-Run Probability	336	(1)
One Prediction	337	(3)
Many Predictions	340	(3)
Predicting Career Statistics	343	(6)
Sosa's Home-Run Probabilities	344	(1)
How Long and How Many At-Bats?	345	(2)
Making the Predictions	347	(2)
Did the Best Team Win?	349	(32)
The Big Question	350	(1)
Ability and Performance	350	(3)
Describing a Team's Ability	352	(1)
Describing a Team's Performance	352	(1)
Team Performance: 1871 to the Present	353	(4)
Explanations for the Winning Percentages	355	(2)
A Normal Curve Model	357	(2)
Team Performances over Time (Revisited)	359	(2)
A Mediocrity Model for Abilities	361	(1)
A Normal Model for Abilities	362	(16)
Weak, Average, and Strong Teams	363	(1)
A Model for Playing a Season	364	(1)
Simulating a Season	365	(1)
Simulating an American League Season	366	(4)
Simulating Many American League Seasons	370	(2)
Performances and Abilities of Different Types of Teams	372	(4)
Simulating an Entire Season	376	(2)
Chance	378	(3)
Post-Game Comments (A Brief Afterword)	381	(4)
Appendix Tabletop Baseball Games	385	(8)
All-Star Baseball	386	(1)
APBA Baseball	386	(2)
Strat-O-Matic Baseball	388	(2)
Sports Illustrated Baseball	390	(3)
Glossary	393	(4)
Bibliography	397	(4)
Index	401