Defeating Authoritarian Leaders in Postcommunist Countries

by Bunce, Valerie J.; Wolchik, Sharon L.

• ISBN13: 9781107006850
• ISBN10: 1107006856
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-06-30
• Publisher: Cambridge Univ Pr

Summary

From 1998 to 2005, six elections took place in postcommunist Europe and Eurasia that had the surprising outcome of empowering the opposition and defeating authoritarian incumbents or their designated successors. Valerie J. Bunce and Sharon L. Wolchik compare these unexpected electoral breakthroughs - with one another and with elections that had the more typical result of maintaining authoritarian rule. They draw three conclusions. First, the opposition was victorious because of the hard and creative work of a transnational network composed of local opposition and civil society groups, members of the international democracy assistance community, and graduates of successful electoral challenges to authoritarian rule in other countries. Second, the remarkable run of these upset elections reflected the ability of this network to diffuse an ensemble of innovative electoral strategies across state boundaries. Finally, elections can serve as a powerful mechanism for democratic change. This is especially the case when civil society is strong, the transfer of political power is through constitutional means, and opposition leaders win with small mandates.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables	p. viii
Acknowledgments	p. ix
The Puzzle
Breakthrough Elections: Mixed Regimes, Democracy Assistance, and International Diffusion	p. 3
Electoral Stability and Change in Mixed Regimes	p. 35
Case Studies
The 1998 Elections in Slovakia and the 2000 Elections in Croatia: The Model Solidifies and is Transferred	p. 53
Defeating a Dictator at the Polls and in the Streets: The 2000 Yugoslav Elections	p. 85
Ukraine: The Orange Revolution	p. 114
Georgia: Kyrgyzstan: Fraudulent Parliamentary Elections, Mass Protests, and Presidential Abdications	p. 148
Failed Cases:. Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Belarus	p. 177
Comparative Analyses
Explaining Divergent Electoral Outcomes: Regime Strength, International Democracy Assistance, and Electoral Dynamics	p. 115
The Electoral Model: Evolution and Elements	p. 247
The Cross-National Diffusion of Democratizing Elections	p. 278
After the Elections: Explaining Divergent Regime Trajectories	p. 307
Conclusions: Democratizing Elections, International Diffusion, and U.S. Democracy Assistance	p. 327
Appendix: List of Interviews	p. 353
Index	p. 367
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