Demography Measuring and Modeling Population Processes

by Preston, Samuel; Heuveline, Patrick; Guillot, Michel

• ISBN13: 9781557864512
• ISBN10: 1557864519
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-10-03
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Summary

This book presents and develops the basic methods and models that are used by demographers to study the behaviour of human populations. The procedures are clearly and concisely developed from first principles and extensive applications are presented.

Author Biography

Samuel H. Preston is Frederick J. Warren Professor of Demography and Dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at the University of Pennsylvania. He has written monographs on mortality patterns, world urbanization, the history of child health, and other subjects. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences and the American Philosophical Society.

Patrick Heuveline is Assistant Professor of Sociology and Research Associate of the Population Research Center at the University of Chicago. His recent work applies demographic analysis to such diverse topics as the Cambodian genocide and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.

Michel Guillot is a Post-Doctoral Fellow at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies, where his research focuses on formal demography and mortality in developing countries. He has a Ph.D. in Demography and Sociology from the University of Pennsylvania.

Table of Contents

List of Boxes	viii
List of Tables	x
List of Figures	xii
Preface	xiv
Acknowledgments	xv
Basic Concepts and Measures	1	(20)
Meaning of ``Population''	1	(1)
The Balancing Equation of Population Change	2	(1)
The Structure of Demographic Rates	3	(2)
Period Rates and Person-years	5	(2)
Principal Period Rates in Demography	7	(1)
Growth Rates in Demography	8	(7)
Estimating Period Person-years	15	(1)
The Concept of a Cohort	16	(2)
Probabilities of Occurrence of Events	18	(3)
Age-specific Rates and Probabilities	21	(17)
Period Age-specific Rates	21	(3)
Age-standardization	24	(4)
Decomposition of Differences between Rates or Proportions	28	(3)
The Lexis Diagram	31	(1)
Age-specific Probabilities	32	(3)
Probabilities of Death Based on Mortality Experience of a Single Calendar Year	35	(3)
The Life Table and Single Decrement Processes	38	(33)
Period Life Tables	42	(2)
Strategies for Choosing a Set of nax Values and/or for Making the nmx → nqx Conversion	44	(3)
The Very Young Ages	47	(1)
The Open-ended Age Interval	48	(1)
Review of Steps for Period Life Table Construction	48	(3)
Interpreting the Life Table	51	(2)
The Life Table Conceived as a Stationary Population	53	(6)
Mortality as a Continuous Process	59	(2)
Life Table Construction Revisited	61	(3)
Decomposing a Difference in Life Expectancies	64	(1)
Adaptation of the Life Table for Studying Other Single Decrement Processes	65	(6)
Appendix 3.1 Life Table Relationships in Continuous Notation	69	(2)
Multiple Decrement Processes	71	(21)
Multiple Decrement Tables for a Real Cohort	71	(2)
Multiple Decrement Life Tables for Periods	73	(5)
Some Basic Mathematics of Multiple Decrement Processes	78	(2)
Associated Single Decrement Tables from Period Data	80	(4)
Cause-specific Decomposition of Differences in Life Expectancies	84	(2)
Associated Single Decrement Tables from Current Status Data	86	(3)
Stationary Populations with Multiple Sources of Decrement	89	(3)
Fertility and Reproduction	92	(25)
Period Fertility Rates	93	(6)
Decomposition of Period Fertility	99	(2)
Cohort Fertility	101	(5)
Birth Interval Analysis	106	(7)
Reproduction Measures	113	(4)
Population Projection	117	(21)
Projections and Forecasts	117	(1)
Population Projection Methodology	118	(1)
The Cohort Component Method	119	(10)
Projections in Matrix Notation	129	(2)
Population Forecasts	131	(2)
The USBOC Projection of the US Population	133	(1)
Alternative Forecasting Methods	134	(1)
Accuracy and Uncertainty	135	(1)
Other Uses of Population Projections	136	(2)
The Stable Population Model	138	(33)
A Simplified Example of a Stable Population	138	(3)
Lotka's Demonstration of Conditions Producing a Stable Population	141	(3)
The Equations Characterizing a Stable Population	144	(3)
The ``Stable Equivalent'' Population	147	(3)
The Relation between the Intrinsic Growth Rate and the Net Reproduction Rate	150	(5)
The Effects of Changes in Fertility and Mortality on Age Structure, Growth Rates, Birth Rates, and Death Rates	155	(6)
The Momentum of Population Growth	161	(6)
Uses of the Stable Population Model in Demographic Estimation	167	(4)
Demographic Relations in Nonstable Populations	171	(20)
An Illustration	171	(1)
Relations in Continuous Age and Time	172	(4)
Extensions of the Basic Relations	176	(4)
Deconstructing the Age-specific Growth Rate	180	(2)
Age Structural Dynamics	182	(2)
Uses of Variable-r Methods in Demographic Estimation	184	(7)
Modeling Age Patterns of Vital Events	191	(20)
Model Age Patterns of Mortality	192	(9)
Age Patterns of Nuptiality	201	(3)
Age Patterns of Fertility	204	(4)
Model Age Patterns of Migration	208	(3)
Methods for Evaluating Data Quality	211	(13)
Statistical Methods for Identifying Coverage Errors	212	(2)
Statistical Methods for Evaluating Content Errors	214	(1)
Demographic Methods of Assessing Data Quality	215	(9)
Indirect Estimation Methods	224	(32)
Estimation of Child Mortality from Information on Child Survivorship: The Brass Method	224	(9)
Estimation of Adult Mortality Using Information on Orphanhood	233	(8)
The Sisterhood Method for Estimating Maternal Mortality	241	(2)
Estimating Mortality and Fertility from Maternity Histories	243	(3)
Indirect Estimation Methods Using Age Distribution at Two Censuses	246	(10)
Increment-Decrement Life Tables (Alberto Palloni, University of Wisconsin)	256	(17)
Introduction	256	(1)
Increment-Decrement Life Tables	257	(2)
Estimation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables	259	(7)
Formalization and Generalization of Relations	266	(4)
The Simplest Case: A Two-state System	270	(1)
Alternative Solutions: The Case of Constant Rates	271	(1)
Programs for the Calculation of Increment-Decrement Life Tables	271	(2)
References	273	(12)
Index	285