Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations

by Davis, Paul K.; Johnson, Stuart E.; Long, Duncan; Gompert, kavid C.

• ISBN13: 9780833045027
• ISBN10: 0833045024
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-12-25
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

"A debate will likely occur in 2009 about U.S. global national-security strategy. The authors describe and illustrate a methodology to help frame and evaluate resource-informed strategies. The core is an integrated portfolio-analysis approach that compares options by their anticipated effectiveness, risks, and resource implications - all three of which are multifaceted. The approach deals explicitly with both uncertainty and differences of strategic perspective. Three illustrative grand strategies are compared, which deal in different ways with the problems of our time - including terrorism and more classic long-term strategic considerations such as general deterrence and competition."--BOOK JACKET.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xxxiii
Acronyms and Abbreviations	p. xxxv
Introduction	p. 1
The Challenge: Resource-Informed Assessment and Recommendations	p. 1
Enhancing the National, Joint Perspective	p. 2
Aligning Joint Responsibilities, Authorities, and Resources	p. 2
Partnership with the Military Departments	p. 3
Need for an Integrated Portfolio Framework	p. 4
Outline of the Monograph	p. 6
The Operating-Unit Perspective	p. 9
Motivations	p. 9
The Logic of the Operating-Unit Framework	p. 9
The Framework as a Next Step in Jointness	p. 10
Cautions	p. 11
Current COCOMs and "National Command"	p. 12
Current COCOMs	p. 12
A National Command for Analytic Purposes	p. 14
Characterizing Alternative Strategies in Terms of Implications for Operating Units (COCOMs)	p. 17
Overview	p. 17
Expressing Strategy and Goals	p. 17
Planning for Adaptiveness	p. 18
The Analytic Flow	p. 19
Elements of the Process	p. 20
Operating-Unit Objectives	p. 20
Capabilities Needed to Meet Operating-Unit Objectives	p. 21
Programs and Force Shifts to Develop Needed Capabilities	p. 21
Resource Implications	p. 22
Application to Some Illustrative Strategies	p. 25
Characterizing the Strategies	p. 25
Premises of the Alternative Strategies	p. 25
Contrasting Goals, Approaches, and Preparations for Adaptation	p. 27
The Possibility of Failure and the Need for Strategic Adaptiveness	p. 27
Objectives of COCOMs	p. 27
Capabilities Needed by Operating Units	p. 30
Actions: Programs and Force Shifts to Address Capability Needs	p. 33
An Analytic Baseline	p. 33
Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Direct GWOT/COIN Strategy	p. 42
Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Build Local, Defend Global Strategy	p. 45
Programs and Force Shifts to Support the Respond to Rising China Strategy	p. 54
Alternative Expressions of Costs	p. 59
Principles	p. 59
Total Costs of Strategy	p. 61
Sensitivities to Discount Rate and the Convention for Calculating NPV	p. 67
The Special Costs of War or Other Intensive Operations	p. 68
Costs When Strategies Fail	p. 69
Other Cost Breakdowns, by Service, COCOM, and Combinations	p. 72
Noneconomic Costs	p. 72
Integrated Portfolio Analysis of Illustrative Strategies	p. 73
Basic Concepts	p. 73
Capabilities-Based Planning and Portfolio Management	p. 73
Methods for Portfolio Analysis	p. 75
The Alternative Strategies	p. 78
Effectiveness Comparisons	p. 80
Nominal Comparison of Risks	p. 85
Uncertainty: Consequences of Different Perspectives and Assumption Sets	p. 88
A Modern Approach to Cost-Effectiveness Analysis	p. 89
The Dubious Concept of Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Across Categories of Goodness	p. 89
A Nominal Analysis	p. 91
Reflecting Different Perspectives and Assumptions	p. 92
A First Cut at Exploratory Analysis for Alternative Military Strategies	p. 94
Using Portfolio Analysis to Improve Strategies	p. 101
The Need to Balance the Risks Better	p. 101
Hedges to Improve Strategic and Operational Adaptiveness	p. 103
Summary Objective: Strategy That Is Flexible, Adaptive, and Robust (a "FAR Strategy")	p. 104
Conclusions	p. 107
Methodology, Tools, and Analysis	p. 107
Using the Methods and Tools	p. 108
Attributes of Good Strategic Analysis	p. 108
Challenges	p. 109
Next Steps for Research and Applications	p. 111
Appendix
Responsibilities of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff	p. 113
The Portfolio Analysis Tool	p. 115
A Tool for Customized Reporting	p. 119
Documentation of Cost Estimates	p. 127
Treatment of Risks	p. 145
Bibliography	p. 157
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