Divergent Paths in Post-Communist Transformation Capitalism for All or Capitalism for the Few?

by Havrylyshyn, Oleh

• ISBN13: 9781403996343
• ISBN10: 1403996342
• eBook ISBN(s): 9780230502857
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2006-04-30
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
• More Book Details
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Summary

The most comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of the successes and failures of twenty-seven countries post-communism transformation. Looking at life after the fall of the Berlin wall in 1989, the book examines and contrasts why some countries have virtually completed their transformation to a liberal polity and economy, while others lag behind. Those that followed a strategy of early and steady reforms on economic, political, institutional and social dimensions have exhibited impressive results in economic performance, attracting foreign direct investment, dealing with the social costs of the transformation and establishing a liberal democracy. Unlike those that have moved gradually, with some countries in a frozen transition after being captured by powerful oligarch groups who have drained considerable state assets.

Author Biography

Oleh Havrylyshyn is Deputy Director and Special Advisor, Office of Internal Audit, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA.

Table of Contents

List of Tables and Figures	x
Preface and Acknowledgements	xii
Foreword	xv
Anne O. Krueger
Introduction and Overview	1	(14)
Part I Background: Transition Debates and Statistical Facts
Key Debates on Transition	15	(32)
The search for a transition model	15
Principal debates of the 1990s	12	(26)
Main issues looking forward	38	(4)
The transitology paradigm in political science literature	42	(5)
Measuring Progress in Transition	47	(31)
How to measure progress	47	(1)
The EBRD transition indicator: how good a measure of progress?	48	(10)
Patterns of reform progress over time	58	(4)
Main determinants of growth in transition	62	(8)
Appendix: unrecorded economic activity and measures of GDP	70	(8)
Economic and Social Costs of Transition: A Hard Look at Soft Facts.	78	(45)
Introduction	78	(1)
Were negative effects inevitable?	79	(2)
Aggregate economic costs: lost output and unemployment output losses	81	(10)
Impact on individuals as measured by social indicators	91	(24)
Summing up the evidence on social costs	115	(3)
Appendix: estimates of output loss under different assumptions	118	(5)
Part II An Ex Post Transition Paradigm: Uncharted Waters, Pirate Raids and Safe Havens
The SS Transition Navigation Model	123	(28)
Introduction	123	(2)
The value of comprehensive explanations	125	(8)
A parsimonious approach: the navigation model	133	(10)
Testable hypotheses	143	(3)
What is new in the navigation model	146	(3)
Appendix: an illustrative formalization of the navigation model	149	(2)
The Search for a Navigation Chart: Legitimate Debates, Vested Interests and Reformist Commitments	151	(26)
The release from communist captivity: carpe diem or follow the money?	151	(1)
Availability of navigation charts	152	(6)
A timeline of economic transformation events	158	(9)
Commitment to a liberal market economy	167	(10)
From Rent-Seeking to Oligarchy to State Capture	177	(26)
Overview	177	(1)
Partial reforms and the evolution of rent-seeking	178	(7)
Other forces affecting vulnerability to rent-seeking	185	(6)
From rent-seeking to state capture	191	(8)
Appendix: rent-seeking, vested interests and entrenchment in non-transition economies	199	(4)
Safe Havens for Market Reforms: Membership in the EU and Other International Organizations	203	(30)
Courtship games of the EU and post-communist countries	203	(5)
EU membership incentives: sometimes a carrot, sometimes a stick	208	(4)
Unrequited desires for membership	212	(4)
Other international beacons	216	(4)
EU membership prospects and reform delays	220	(5)
Appendix: EU membership as a factor in political and economic reform in the Baltic republics	225	(8)
Part III A Summing Up
Future Prospects for Captured States	233	(22)
A fork in the transition road	233	(1)
Is further transition inevitable or is it frozen?	234	(8)
Consequences of a frozen transition	242	(6)
Can anything be done to free the captured states?	248	(7)
Diverse Outcomes: Liberal Societies, Captured States and Undetermined Polities	255	(22)
Introduction	255	(1)
Variation in transition progress	255	(9)
Why such divergent outcomes?	264	(8)
Future prospects and policy implications	272	(5)
Notes	277	(18)
Bibliography	295	(14)
Index	309