Domestic Trends in the United States, China, and Iran Implications for U.S. Navy Strategic Planning

by Gordon, John; Button, Robert W.; Cunningham, Karla J.; Reid, Toy I.; Blickstein, Irv

• ISBN13: 9780833045621
• ISBN10: 0833045628
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2009-03-16
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

The U.S. Navy faces uncertainty about the degree to which it will have to prepare for a high-end future conflict versus the so-called Long War. To help the Navy understand how critical near- mid-, and far-term trends in the United States, China, and Iran might influence U.S. security decisions in general and the Navy1s investments in particular, RAND examined emerging domestic and regional nonmilitary trends in each of the three countries.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures	p. ix
Tables	p. xi
Summary	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xxv
Abbreviations	p. xxvii
Introduction and Objectives	p. 1
Introduction	p. 1
Study Approach	p. 1
Organization of This Monograph	p. 4
Strategic Trends in the United States	p. 5
Summary	p. 5
Introduction	p. 6
U.S. Demographic Trends	p. 6
Gross Domestic Product	p. 9
The Federal Budget	p. 10
Federal Revenues	p. 11
Federal Spending	p. 11
Social Security	p. 12
Medicare and Medicaid	p. 13
Interest on the National Debt	p. 15
Federal Spending	p. 15
Discretionary Spending	p. 16
Nondefense Discretionary Spending	p. 17
Natural Disasters	p. 17
Energy	p. 20
Defense Spending	p. 24
Conclusions	p. 26
The United States' Near Abroad	p. 29
The Current Situation	p. 29
Future Trends and Possibilities in Northern South America	p. 31
Future Trends and Possibilities in the Caribbean	p. 32
An Overview of Future Trends in the Region	p. 34
The Special Case of Mexico	p. 35
Strategic Trends in the People's Republic of China	p. 37
The Current Situation	p. 37
China's Energy Future	p. 39
Consumption Pattern and Energy Mix	p. 39
China's Coal Industry	p. 45
Macroeconomic Trends	p. 46
GDP Forecasts	p. 48
Obstacles to Future Growth	p. 50
China: A High-Tech Economy?	p. 56
Demographic Trends and Related Problems	p. 59
Aging and Social Security	p. 59
Gender Imbalance	p. 64
Floating Population and Urbanization	p. 64
Public Health	p. 66
Environmental Degradation	p. 69
Water Scarcity and Pollution	p. 70
Desertification	p. 74
Air Pollution	p. 76
Enforcement	p. 79
Supply Trends	p. 79
Conclusion	p. 80
China's Near Abroad	p. 87
The Current Situation	p. 87
Future Trends and Possibilities in the West	p. 90
Future Trends and Possibilities in the South	p. 91
Future Trends and Possibilities in the East and Northeast	p. 92
Taiwan	p. 92
North Korea	p. 93
Japan	p. 95
Strategic Trends in Iran	p. 97
The Current Situation	p. 97
Economic Trends	p. 98
Rentierism	p. 99
Unemployment and Underemployment	p. 103
Demographic Pressures	p. 105
Energy Production and Consumption Patterns	p. 107
Nuclear Energy	p. 109
Sociopolitical Trends	p. 112
Environmental Trends	p. 118
Conclusion	p. 121
Iran's Near Abroad	p. 125
The Current Situation	p. 125
Future Trends and Possibilities in Russian and Chinese Support for Iran	p. 127
Future Trends and Possibilities in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council States	p. 128
Future Trends and Possibilities in Turkey and the Kurdish Independence Movement	p. 129
Future Trends and Possibilities in Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria	p. 130
Summary	p. 131
Japan's Near Abroad	p. 133
The Current Situation	p. 133
Current State of U.S.-Japanese Relations	p. 134
Japan's Current Relations with Its Asian Neighbors	p. 136
Future Trends and Possibilities	p. 139
Russia's Near Abroad	p. 143
The Current Situation	p. 143
Current Russian-European Relations	p. 149
Current Sino-Russian Relations	p. 151
Current Russian-Iranian Relations	p. 152
Current Russian-Japanese Relations	p. 154
Future Trends and Possibilities	p. 155
Conclusions	p. 159
Major Future Domestic and Near-Abroad Challenges	p. 159
The United States	p. 159
China	p. 160
Iran	p. 162
Common Challenges	p. 163
Aging	p. 163
Pollution	p. 163
Energy	p. 164
Implications	p. 165
For the United States	p. 165
For the U.S. Navy	p. 166
Investment Implications for the U.S. Navy	p. 168
Final Thoughts	p. 170
Appendixes
Comparisons	p. 171
China's Coal Future	p. 177
Bibliography	p. 191
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