Dominance & Decline

by Gidengil, Elisabeth; Nevitte, Neil; Blais, Andre; Everitt, Joanna; Fournier, Patrick

• ISBN13: 9781442603899
• ISBN10: 1442603895
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2012-03-15
• Publisher: Univ of Toronto Pr Higher education

Summary

Emerging from the 2000 federal election, the dominance of the Liberal Party seemed assured. By 2011, however, the situation had completely reversed: the Liberals suffered a crushing defeat, failing even to become the official opposition and recording their lowest ever share of the vote. Dominance and Declineprovides a comprehensive, comparative account of Canadian election outcomes since 2000. The book explores the meaning of election outcomes within the context of the larger changes that have marked Canada's party system since 1988. It also demonstrates how noticeable trends can help to explain the radical results of the 2011 election.

Author Biography

Elisabeth Gidengil is Hiram Mills Professor and Director of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship at McGill University. Neil Nevitte is Professor of Political Science and cross-appointed as Professor at the School of Public Policy and Governance and the School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto. Andr Blais is Professor of Political Science and Canada Research Chair in Electoral Studies at the Universit de Montral. Joanna Everitt is Professor of Political Science at the University of New Brunswick, Saint John. Patrick Fournier is Professor of Political Science at the Universit de Montral.

Table of Contents

List of Figures and Tables	p. ix
Acknowledgements	p. xiii
Introduction	p. xv
Explaining Vote Choice	p. 1
The Sociological Model	p. 2
The Social-Psychological Model	p. 5
Multistage Models	p. 8
Rational Choice Models	p. 10
The Analytic Strategy	p. 13
The Changing Social Bases of Party Support	p. 19
Social Cleavages Old and New	p. 19
The Liberals: A Party in Decline	p. 24
The Conservatives: On the Road to a Majority	p. 29
The NDP: A Party on the Rebound	p. 31
Change and Continuity	p. 32
Values and Beliefs	p. 37
Telling the Left from the Right	p. 38
Beyond Left and Right	p. 40
Value Stability and Change	p. 42
Values, Beliefs, and Social Background Characteristics	p. 44
Values, Beliefs, and Vote Choice	p. 45
Values, Beliefs, and Electoral Dynamics	p. 49
Party Loyalties	p. 53
Party Identification: A Contested Concept in Canada	p. 53
Is Party Identification Meaningful in Canada?	p. 56
The Liberals Lose Their Partisan Advantage	p. 60
Who are the Partisans?	p. 64
Short-Term Shocks and Strained Loyalties	p. 66
Does the Economy Matter?	p. 69
The Not-so-Simple Economic Voting Calculus	p. 70
The Contingencies of Economic Voting	p. 72
Economic Conditions and the Vote	p. 73
Changing Economic Perceptions	p. 75
Economic Perceptions and the Vote	p. 76
The Limited Influence of Economic Perceptions	p. 77
Revisiting Conventional Wisdom	p. 82
The Issues and the Vote	p. 85
Issue Voting	p. 86
Policy Issues and the Vote	p. 88
The Sponsorship Scandal	p. 94
Issue Voting and Party Fortunes	p. 98
Party Leaders-"The Superstars" of Canadian Politics?	p. 101
Leader Evaluations, Vote Choice, and Electoral Dynamics	p. 102
Leader Awareness	p. 104
Feelings about the Party Leaders	p. 106
What Lies behind Leader Evaluations?	p. 108
Leader Evaluations and Vote Choice	p. 112
Leader Evaluations and Party Vote Shares	p. 113
The Leadership Factor	p. 114
Strategic Considerations	p. 117
Strategic Voting	p. 118
Preferences, Perceptions, and Vote Choice	p. 120
Minority Governments	p. 121
Views about Minority Government	p. 123
The Influence of Strategic Motivations, Values, and Economic Considerations	p. 126
Views about Minority Government and Vote Choice	p. 128
Strategic Calculations and Electoral Dynamics	p. 129
The Greens and the Perils of Being A "Single-Issue" Party	p. 133
Alternative Explanations for Green Voting	p. 134
Where Did Green Voters Come From?	p. 137
Who Supported the Green Party?	p. 138
Constraints and Opportunities	p. 142
Electoral Dynamics in Quebec	p. 147
The Linguistic Divide	p. 149
Sovereignists, Federalists, and the "Soft Centre"	p. 151
Partisanship and Vote Choice	p. 155
The Economy	p. 158
The Issues	p. 161
The Leadership Factor	p. 164
Strategic Considerations	p. 166
Distinct Dynamics	p. 169
The Shifting Contours of Canadian Elections	p. 173
Explaining Changing Party Fortunes: Outside Québec	p. 173
Explaining Changing Party Fortunes: Québec	p. 179
Explaining Vote Choice and Electoral Dynamics: What Has Been Learned?	p. 180
The Strategic Challenges Facing Canadian Parties	p. 182
Estimating the Multistage Models	p. 187
Values and Beliefs	p. 189
The Determinants of Vote Choice	p. 193
References	p. 203
Index	p. 221
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