Dynamical Paleoclimatology

by Saltzman

• ISBN13: 9780126173314
• ISBN10: 0126173311
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-10-19
• Publisher: Elsevier Science

Summary

The book discusses the ideas and creates a framework for building toward a theory of paleoclimate. Using the rich and mounting array of observational evidence of climatic changes from geology, geochemistry, and paleontology, Saltzman offers a dynamical approach to the theory of paleoclimate evolution and an expanded theory of climate. Saltzman was a distinquished authority on dynamical meteorology. This book provides a comprehensive framework based on dynamical system ideas for a theory of climate and paleoclimatic evolution which is intended for graduate students and research workers in paleoclimatology, earth system studies, and global change research. The book includes an extensive bibliography of geological and physical/dynamical references.

Table of Contents

Prologue	xv
Acknowledgments	xix
List of Symbols	xxi
PART I Foundations
Introduction: The Basic Challenge	3	(14)
The Climate System	3	(1)
Some Basic Observations	4	(5)
External Forcing	9	(5)
Astronomical Forcing	9	(3)
Tectonic Forcing	12	(2)
The Ice-Age Problem	14	(3)
Techniques for Climate Reconstruction	17	(13)
Historical Methods	17	(1)
Direct Quantitative Measurements	17	(1)
Descriptive Accounts of General Environmental Conditions	18	(1)
Surficial Biogeologic Proxy Evidence	18	(2)
Annually Layered Life Forms	18	(1)
Surface Geomorphic Evidence	19	(1)
Conventional Nonisotopic Stratigraphic Analyses of Sedimentary Rock and Ice	20	(3)
Physical Indicators	21	(1)
Paleobiological Indicators (Fossil Faunal Types and Abundances)	22	(1)
Isotopic Methods	23	(3)
Oxygen Isotopes	23	(1)
Deuterium and Beryllium in Ice Cores	24	(1)
Stable Carbon Isotopes	25	(1)
Strontium and Osmium Isotopes	26	(1)
Nonisotopic Geochemical Methods	26	(1)
Cadmium Analysis	26	(1)
Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Trapped Air in Ice Cores	27	(1)
Chemical and Biological Constituents and Dust Layers in Ice Cores	27	(1)
Dating the Proxy Evidence (Geochronometry)	27	(3)
A Survey of Global Paleoclimatic Variations	30	(17)
The Phanerozoic Eon (Past 600 My)	31	(3)
The Cenozoic Era (Past 65 My)	34	(1)
The Plio-Pleistocene (Past 5 My)	35	(2)
Variations during the Last Ice Age: IRD Events	37	(1)
The Last Glacial Maximum (20 ka)	38	(1)
Postglacial Changes: The Past 20 ky	39	(1)
The Past 100 Years	40	(1)
The Generalized Spectrum of Climatic Variance	41	(3)
A Qualitative Discussion of Causes	44	(3)
General Theoretical Considerations	47	(21)
The Fundamental Equations	47	(4)
Time Averaging and Stochastic Forcing	51	(4)
Response Times and Equilibrium	55	(5)
Spatial Averaging	60	(3)
Climatic-Mean Mass and Energy Balance Equations	63	(5)
The Water Mass Balance	63	(2)
Energy Balance	65	(3)
Special Theoretical Considerations for Paleoclimate: Structuring a Dynamical Approach	68	(16)
A Basic Problem: Noncalculable Levels of Energy and Mass Flow	69	(3)
An Overall Strategy	72	(2)
Natational Simplifications for Resolving Total Climate Variability	74	(2)
A Structured Dynamical Approach	76	(6)
The External Forcing Function, F	82	(2)
Astronomical/Cosmic Forcing	82	(1)
Tectonic Forcing	82	(2)
Basic Concepts of Dynamical Systems Analysis: Prototypical Climatic Applications	84	(29)
Local (or Internal) Stability	84	(2)
The Generic Cubic Nonlinearity	86	(1)
Structural (or External) Stability: Elements of Bifurcation Theory	87	(5)
Multivariable Systems	92	(3)
The Two-Variable Phase Plane	92	(3)
A Prototype Two-Variable Model	95	(8)
Sensitivity of Equilibria to Changes in Parameters: Prediction of the Second Kind	97	(2)
Structural Stability	99	(4)
The Prototype Two-Variable System as a Stochastic-Dynamical System: Effects of Random Forcing	103	(5)
The Stochastic Amplitude	104	(1)
Structural Stochastic Stability	104	(4)
More Than Two-Variable Systems: Deterministic Chaos	108	(5)
PART II Physics of the Separate Domains
Modeling the Atmosphere and Surface State as Fast-Response Components	113	(33)
The General Circulation Model	114	(1)
Lower Resolution Models: Statistical-Dynamical Models and the Energy Balance Model	115	(4)
A Zonal-Average SDM	116	(1)
Axially Asymmetric SDMs	117	(2)
The Complete Time-Average State	119	(1)
Thermodynamic Models	119	(2)
Radiative-Convective Models	119	(1)
Vertically Averaged Models (the EBM)	120	(1)
The Basic Energy Balance Model	121	(2)
Equilibria and Dynamical Properties of the Zero-Dimensional (Global Average) EBM	123	(4)
Stochastic Resonance	127	(2)
The One-Dimensional (Latitude-Dependent) EBM	129	(3)
Transitivity Properties of the Atmospheric and Surface Climatic State: Inferences from a GCM	132	(2)
Closure Relationships Based on GCM Sensitivity Experiments	134	(5)
Surface Temperature Sensitivity	135	(4)
Formal Feedback Analysis of the Fast-Response Equilibrium State	139	(4)
Paleoclimatic Simulations	143	(3)
The Slow-Response ``Control'' Variables: An Overview	146	(12)
The Ice Sheets	147	(2)
Key Variables	147	(1)
Observations	148	(1)
Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide	149	(2)
The Thermohaline Ocean State	151	(3)
A Three-Dimensional Phase-Space Trajectory	154	(4)
Global Dynamics of the Ice Sheets	158	(23)
Basic Equations and Boundary Conditions	158	(5)
A Scale Analysis	163	(3)
The Vertically Integrated Ice-Sheet Model	166	(2)
The Surface Mass Balance	168	(1)
Basal Temperature and Melting	169	(2)
Deformable Basal Regolith	171	(1)
Ice Streams and Ice Shelves	172	(1)
Bedrock Depression	172	(1)
Sea Level Change and the Ice Sheets: The Depression-Calving Hypothesis	173	(3)
Paleoclimatic Applications of the Vertically Integrated Model	176	(1)
A Global Dynamical Equation for Ice Mass	177	(4)
Dynamics of Atmospheric Co2	181	(25)
The Air-Sea Flux, Q↑	183	(9)
Qualitative Analysis of the Factors Affecting Q↑	185	(4)
Mathematical Formulation of the Ocean Carbon Balance	189	(2)
A Parameterization for Q↑	191	(1)
Terrestrial Organic Carbon Exchange, W↑G	192	(4)
Sea Level Change Effects	194	(1)
Thermal Effects	194	(1)
Ice Cover Effects	194	(1)
Long-Term Terrestrial Organic Burial, W↓G	195	(1)
The Global Mass Balance of Organic Carbon	196	(1)
Outgassing Processes, V&uar;	196	(1)
Rock Weathering Downdraw, W↓	197	(3)
A Global Dynamical Equation for Atmospheric CO2	200	(1)
Modeling the Tectonically Forced CO2 Variations, μ: Long-Term Rock Processes	200	(5)
The Long-Term Oceanic Carbon Balance	201	(1)
The GEOCARB Model	201	(4)
Overview of the Full Global Carbon Cycle	205	(1)
Simplified Dynamics of the Thermohaline Ocean State	206	(29)
General Equations	208	(2)
Boundary Conditions	209	(1)
A Prototype Four-Box Ocean Model	210	(1)
The Wind-Driven, Local-Convective, and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations	211	(5)
The Wind-Driven Circulation: Gyres and Upwelling	211	(4)
Local Convective Overturnings and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations	215	(1)
The Two-Box Thermohaline Circulation Model: Possible Bimodality of the Ocean State	216	(10)
The Two-Box System	216	(3)
A Simple Model of the TH Circulation	219	(2)
Meridional Fluxes	221	(1)
Dynamical Analysis of the Two-Box Model	222	(4)
Integral Equations for the Deep Ocean State	226	(3)
The Deep Ocean Temperature	226	(2)
The Deep Ocean Salinity	228	(1)
Global Dynamical Equations for the Thermohaline State: &thetas; and Sϕ	229	(6)
PART III Unified Dynamical Theory
The Coupled Fast- and Slow-Response Variables as a Global Dynamical System: Outline of a Theory of Paleoclimatic Variation	235	(12)
The Unified Model: A Paleoclimate Dynamics Model	236	(2)
Feedback-Loop Representation	238	(3)
Elimination of the Fast-Response Variables: The Center Manifold	241	(1)
Sources of Instability: The Dissipative Rate Constants	242	(2)
Formal Separation into Tectonic Equilibrium and Departure Equations	244	(3)
Forced Evolution of the Tectonic-Mean Climatic State	247	(15)
Effects of Changing Solar Luminosity and Rotation Rate	248	(1)
Solar Luminosity (S)	248	(1)
Rotation Rate (Ω)	249	(1)
General Effects of Changing Land-Ocean Distribution and Topography (h)	249	(4)
Effects of Long-Term Variations of Volcanic and Cosmic Dust and Bolides	253	(2)
Multimillion-Year Evolution of CO2	255	(5)
The GEOCARB Solution	255	(4)
First-Order Response of Global Ice Mass and Deep Ocean Temperature to Tectonic CO2 Variations	259	(1)
Possible Role of Salinity-Driven Instability of the Tectonic-Mean State	260	(1)
Snapshot Atmospheric and Surficial Equilibrium Responses to Prescribed y-Fields Using GCMs	261	(1)
The Late Cenozoic Ice-Age Departures: An Overview of Previous Ideas and Models	262	(16)
General Review: Forced vs. Free Models	262	(4)
Models in Which Earth-Orbital Forcing Is Necessary	263	(2)
Instability-Driven (Auto-oscillatory) Models	265	(1)
Hierarchical Classification in Terms of Increasing Physical Complexity	266	(1)
Forced Ice-Line Models (Box 1, Fig. 14-1)	266	(1)
Ice-Sheet Inertia Models	267	(4)
The Simplest Forms (Box 2)	267	(1)
More Physically Based Ice-Sheet Models: First Applications	268	(1)
Direct Bedrock Effects (Box 3)	269	(1)
Bedrock-Calving Effects (Box 4)	270	(1)
Basal Meltwater and Sliding (Box 5)	270	(1)
Ice Streams and Ice Shelf Effects	270	(1)
Continental Ice-Sheet Movement (Box 6)	270	(1)
Three-Dimensional (λ, ϕ, hI) Ice-Sheet Models	271	(1)
The Need for Enhancement of the Coupled Ice-Sheet/Atmospheric Climate Models	271	(1)
Ice-Sheet Variables Coupled with Additional Slow-Response Variables	272	(2)
Regolith Mass, mr (Box 7)	272	(1)
The Deep Ocean Temperature &thetas; (Box 8)	273	(1)
The Salinity Gradient Sϕ (Box 9)	274	(1)
Carbon Dioxide, μ (Box 10)	274	(2)
Earlier History	274	(1)
Quantitative Revival of the Carbon Dioxide Hypothesis	275	(1)
Summary	276	(2)
A Global Theory of the Late Cenozoic Ice Ages: Glacial Onset and Oscillation	278	(23)
Specialization of the Model	279	(3)
The 100-ky Oscillation as a Free Response: Determination of the Adjustable Parameters	282	(4)
Nondimensional Form	283	(1)
Internal Stability Analysis to Locate a Free 100-ky-Period Oscillation in Parameter Spece	284	(2)
Milankovitch Forcing of the Free Oscillation	286	(2)
Structural Stability as a Function of the Tectonic CO2 Level	288	(2)
A More Complete Solution	290	(5)
Predictions	295	(2)
Robustness and Sensitivity	297	(1)
Summary: A Revival of the CO2 Theory of the Ice Ages	298	(3)
Millennial-Scale Variations	301	(13)
Theory of Heinrich Oscillations	303	(8)
The ``Binge-Purge'' Model	304	(1)
Scale Analysis of the Factors Influencing TB	305	(1)
Diagnostic Analysis	306	(2)
Dynamical Analysis: A Simple Heinrich-Scale Oscillator	308	(3)
Dynamics of the D-O Scale Oscillations	311	(3)
Closing Thoughts: Epilogue	314	(7)
Toward a More Complete Theory	314	(4)
Epilogue: The ``Ice Ages'' and ``Physics''	318	(3)
Bibliography	321	(22)
Index	343	(8)
List of Volumes in the Series	351