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9781402017773

Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction

by ;
  • ISBN13:

    9781402017773

  • ISBN10:

    1402017774

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 2003-12-01
  • Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub
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Supplemental Materials

What is included with this book?

Summary

This book can be used as a reference by both specialists (e.g., seismologists, earthquake engineers, and physicists) and related professionals (e.g., government officials, land use planners). Scientific issues (the physics of earthquake occurrence and implications for predictability), applications (procedures for time-independent hazard estimates, and time-dependent forecasts solidly grounded on recent progress in earthquake physics, as well as unresolved scientific questions pertaining to such estimates), and policy issues (practical measures for seismic risk reduction in Greece and Turkey, and how governments should view earthquake prediction) are comprehensively covered. Each of the eight chapters is followed by a thorough set of references to recent literature. CD-ROM with color figures is included.

Table of Contents

Preface xi
Recommendations adopted by the ARW xvii
Modeling earthquakes
1(19)
Phenomenology
1(3)
The lack of a coherent phenomenology
1(3)
Retrospective selection bias
4(5)
Using statistics to find the `truth'
4(1)
Hypothesis testing
5(1)
Data mining and fishing expeditions
6(1)
Post hoc correction of optimal retrospective selections
7(1)
The safest antidote to false discoveries: forward validation
8(1)
Model building
9(4)
Choosing among models
10(1)
Deterministic, complex and stochastic cases
11(1)
Complex systems
12(1)
Prediction
13(3)
Definitions of prediction
14(2)
References
16(4)
The classical view of earthquakes
20(82)
A geologist's view of earthquakes
21(19)
Geology, geomorphology and earthquakes
22(10)
Paleontology and earthquakes
32(1)
Petrology and earthquakes
33(5)
Applied geology and seismic hazard
38(2)
Seismology and geodesy
40(6)
Introduction
40(2)
Inversion for the Centroid and Moment Tensor (CMT)
42(1)
Geodetic constraints
43(1)
Space-time history of faulting and physical implications
44(2)
Scaling laws for earthquakes
46(6)
The Gutenberg-Richter law
46(1)
Empirical roots of the Gutenberg-Richter law
47(1)
Moment-frequency relation
48(4)
The elastic rebound model and its successors
52(6)
The time- and slip-predictable models
53(2)
The seismic gap hypothesis
55(1)
The characteristic earthquake model
56(2)
Nucleation or not?
58(4)
Is there any evidence for a nucleation phase?
58(1)
Models of a hypothetical preparatory process
59(1)
Theoretical models
60(2)
What is an earthquake? Fracture, slip or both?
62(11)
Laboratory-based hypotheses
62(1)
Stick-slip friction
63(5)
Fracture mechanics
68(1)
Damage mechanics
69(4)
Stress: the basic yet unknown quantity
73(4)
Stress in the Earth's crust
74(3)
Earthquake energy balance
77(9)
Earthquake energy function
77(5)
Earthquakes as a three stage process
82(3)
The size of the earthquake
85(1)
References
86(16)
The Physics of complex systems: applications to earthquake
102(46)
Phase transitions, criticality, and self-similarity
103(6)
Subcriticality and supercriticality
108(1)
Universality
108(1)
Scale invariance: the analytical approach
109(2)
Scale invariance: the geometrical approach
111(6)
Measuring an object's fractal dimension
112(2)
Multifractals
114(1)
The empirical origin of fractality
115(1)
Deterministic low-dimensional chaos: hope for predictability?
115(2)
Characterizing scale-invariant systems
117(2)
Log-log plots
118(1)
Wavelets
118(1)
Modeling scale invariant systems
119(8)
Percolation
120(1)
Cellular automata
121(5)
Earthquakes as SOC
126(1)
The origin of power laws and fractality
127(5)
Scale invariance: artifacts and reality
127(2)
Do power laws always mean geometrical scale invariance?
129(2)
General features of self-organizing cellular automata earth-quake models
131(1)
Problems in applying CA models to earthquakes
132(2)
Dynamical implications
134(3)
Intermittent criticality
134(1)
Power law evolution before failure - Voight's law
135(2)
Statistical implications
137(1)
Implications for predictability
137(3)
References
140(8)
Time-independent hazard
148(33)
Seismic Hazard assessment and site effects evaluation at regional scale
148(11)
Seismic hazard estimates
149(4)
Site effects estimates: how precise should they be?
153(3)
Conclusions
156(3)
USGS and partners: approaches to estimating earthquake probabilities
159(17)
Basic principles
160(1)
Earthquake recurrence rates for national and international seismic hazard maps
161(5)
San Francisco Bay region
166(3)
Earthquake likelihood models in Southern California
169(2)
The New Madrid Seismic Zone
171(2)
Foreshocks and aftershocks
173(1)
Conclusions
174(2)
References
176(5)
Time-dependent hazard estimates and forecasts, and their uncertainties
181(36)
USGS and partners: research on earthquake probabilities
181(4)
Physics, recurrence, and probabilities
182(2)
Earthquake triggering
184(1)
Conclusions
185(1)
Probabilistic forecasting of seismicity
185(16)
Long-term seismic hazard estimates
186(4)
Short-term seismic hazard estimates
190(2)
Experimental short-term forecasts for Western Pacific
192(5)
Experimental forecasts in Southern California
197(2)
Conclusions
199(2)
What is the chance of an earthquake?
201(13)
Interpreting probability
201(4)
The USGS earthquake forecast
205(4)
A view from the past
209(1)
Conclusions
210(4)
References
214(3)
Gathering new data
217(33)
Space geodesy
218(18)
The observables of space geodesy
218(2)
Reference system and deformation concepts
220(3)
The observing networks
223(4)
An introduction to SAR imaging and SAR interferometry
227(1)
SAR and digital elevation models
228(2)
Differential interferometry
230(1)
Permanent scatterers
231(1)
Integration of GPS and SAR data: an example in Southern California
232(4)
Paleoseismic data
236(10)
Coastal indicators of coseismic vertical movements
237(2)
Case studies
239(5)
Conclusions
244(2)
References
246(4)
Seismic risk mitigation
250(34)
Greek case study
250(12)
The seismic risk in Greece
251(3)
Activities for seismic risk mitigation and current Greek experience
254(5)
Risk mitigation policies
259(1)
Contribution of research to seismic risk mitigation
260(1)
Concluding remarks
261(1)
Istanbul case study
262(20)
Background and general considerations
262(2)
Active tectonics and seismicity
264(7)
Earthquake hazard assessments
271(1)
Vulnerability analysis
272(4)
Earthquake risk to building population
276(1)
Risk mitigation
277(5)
References
282(2)
Earthquake prediction and public policy
284(46)
Introduction
284(5)
Why should we care now?
286(1)
Ethical considerations
287(1)
Definitions of earthquake prediction
287(1)
Proposals for earthquake prediction research
288(1)
Views of social scientists
289(6)
Report of NAS Panel in 1975
289(1)
Social science research
290(2)
Costs and benefits of short-term earthquake prediction
292(3)
U.S. earthquake prediction program
295(11)
Current Federal and State laws
298(2)
NEPEC
300(4)
Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment
304(2)
Japan's earthquake prediction program
306(5)
Long-term forecast of the `Tokai earthquake'
307(2)
System for short-term prediction
309(1)
Public perception
310(1)
Public reactions to predictions
311(9)
Codes of practice for earthquake prediction
311(1)
Publicly announced predictions
312(6)
Common features
318(1)
Countermeasures
319(1)
Discussion and conclusion
320(1)
References
321(9)
Acknowledgments 330(1)
Addresses of principal contributors 331(2)
Index 333

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