Earthquake Science and Seismic Risk Reduction

by Mulargia, Francesco; Geller, Robert J., M.D.

• ISBN13: 9781402017773
• ISBN10: 1402017774
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2003-12-01
• Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub

Summary

This book can be used as a reference by both specialists (e.g., seismologists, earthquake engineers, and physicists) and related professionals (e.g., government officials, land use planners). Scientific issues (the physics of earthquake occurrence and implications for predictability), applications (procedures for time-independent hazard estimates, and time-dependent forecasts solidly grounded on recent progress in earthquake physics, as well as unresolved scientific questions pertaining to such estimates), and policy issues (practical measures for seismic risk reduction in Greece and Turkey, and how governments should view earthquake prediction) are comprehensively covered. Each of the eight chapters is followed by a thorough set of references to recent literature. CD-ROM with color figures is included.

Table of Contents

Preface	xi
Recommendations adopted by the ARW	xvii
Modeling earthquakes	1	(19)
Phenomenology	1	(3)
The lack of a coherent phenomenology	1	(3)
Retrospective selection bias	4	(5)
Using statistics to find the `truth'	4	(1)
Hypothesis testing	5	(1)
Data mining and fishing expeditions	6	(1)
Post hoc correction of optimal retrospective selections	7	(1)
The safest antidote to false discoveries: forward validation	8	(1)
Model building	9	(4)
Choosing among models	10	(1)
Deterministic, complex and stochastic cases	11	(1)
Complex systems	12	(1)
Prediction	13	(3)
Definitions of prediction	14	(2)
References	16	(4)
The classical view of earthquakes	20	(82)
A geologist's view of earthquakes	21	(19)
Geology, geomorphology and earthquakes	22	(10)
Paleontology and earthquakes	32	(1)
Petrology and earthquakes	33	(5)
Applied geology and seismic hazard	38	(2)
Seismology and geodesy	40	(6)
Introduction	40	(2)
Inversion for the Centroid and Moment Tensor (CMT)	42	(1)
Geodetic constraints	43	(1)
Space-time history of faulting and physical implications	44	(2)
Scaling laws for earthquakes	46	(6)
The Gutenberg-Richter law	46	(1)
Empirical roots of the Gutenberg-Richter law	47	(1)
Moment-frequency relation	48	(4)
The elastic rebound model and its successors	52	(6)
The time- and slip-predictable models	53	(2)
The seismic gap hypothesis	55	(1)
The characteristic earthquake model	56	(2)
Nucleation or not?	58	(4)
Is there any evidence for a nucleation phase?	58	(1)
Models of a hypothetical preparatory process	59	(1)
Theoretical models	60	(2)
What is an earthquake? Fracture, slip or both?	62	(11)
Laboratory-based hypotheses	62	(1)
Stick-slip friction	63	(5)
Fracture mechanics	68	(1)
Damage mechanics	69	(4)
Stress: the basic yet unknown quantity	73	(4)
Stress in the Earth's crust	74	(3)
Earthquake energy balance	77	(9)
Earthquake energy function	77	(5)
Earthquakes as a three stage process	82	(3)
The size of the earthquake	85	(1)
References	86	(16)
The Physics of complex systems: applications to earthquake	102	(46)
Phase transitions, criticality, and self-similarity	103	(6)
Subcriticality and supercriticality	108	(1)
Universality	108	(1)
Scale invariance: the analytical approach	109	(2)
Scale invariance: the geometrical approach	111	(6)
Measuring an object's fractal dimension	112	(2)
Multifractals	114	(1)
The empirical origin of fractality	115	(1)
Deterministic low-dimensional chaos: hope for predictability?	115	(2)
Characterizing scale-invariant systems	117	(2)
Log-log plots	118	(1)
Wavelets	118	(1)
Modeling scale invariant systems	119	(8)
Percolation	120	(1)
Cellular automata	121	(5)
Earthquakes as SOC	126	(1)
The origin of power laws and fractality	127	(5)
Scale invariance: artifacts and reality	127	(2)
Do power laws always mean geometrical scale invariance?	129	(2)
General features of self-organizing cellular automata earth-quake models	131	(1)
Problems in applying CA models to earthquakes	132	(2)
Dynamical implications	134	(3)
Intermittent criticality	134	(1)
Power law evolution before failure - Voight's law	135	(2)
Statistical implications	137	(1)
Implications for predictability	137	(3)
References	140	(8)
Time-independent hazard	148	(33)
Seismic Hazard assessment and site effects evaluation at regional scale	148	(11)
Seismic hazard estimates	149	(4)
Site effects estimates: how precise should they be?	153	(3)
Conclusions	156	(3)
USGS and partners: approaches to estimating earthquake probabilities	159	(17)
Basic principles	160	(1)
Earthquake recurrence rates for national and international seismic hazard maps	161	(5)
San Francisco Bay region	166	(3)
Earthquake likelihood models in Southern California	169	(2)
The New Madrid Seismic Zone	171	(2)
Foreshocks and aftershocks	173	(1)
Conclusions	174	(2)
References	176	(5)
Time-dependent hazard estimates and forecasts, and their uncertainties	181	(36)
USGS and partners: research on earthquake probabilities	181	(4)
Physics, recurrence, and probabilities	182	(2)
Earthquake triggering	184	(1)
Conclusions	185	(1)
Probabilistic forecasting of seismicity	185	(16)
Long-term seismic hazard estimates	186	(4)
Short-term seismic hazard estimates	190	(2)
Experimental short-term forecasts for Western Pacific	192	(5)
Experimental forecasts in Southern California	197	(2)
Conclusions	199	(2)
What is the chance of an earthquake?	201	(13)
Interpreting probability	201	(4)
The USGS earthquake forecast	205	(4)
A view from the past	209	(1)
Conclusions	210	(4)
References	214	(3)
Gathering new data	217	(33)
Space geodesy	218	(18)
The observables of space geodesy	218	(2)
Reference system and deformation concepts	220	(3)
The observing networks	223	(4)
An introduction to SAR imaging and SAR interferometry	227	(1)
SAR and digital elevation models	228	(2)
Differential interferometry	230	(1)
Permanent scatterers	231	(1)
Integration of GPS and SAR data: an example in Southern California	232	(4)
Paleoseismic data	236	(10)
Coastal indicators of coseismic vertical movements	237	(2)
Case studies	239	(5)
Conclusions	244	(2)
References	246	(4)
Seismic risk mitigation	250	(34)
Greek case study	250	(12)
The seismic risk in Greece	251	(3)
Activities for seismic risk mitigation and current Greek experience	254	(5)
Risk mitigation policies	259	(1)
Contribution of research to seismic risk mitigation	260	(1)
Concluding remarks	261	(1)
Istanbul case study	262	(20)
Background and general considerations	262	(2)
Active tectonics and seismicity	264	(7)
Earthquake hazard assessments	271	(1)
Vulnerability analysis	272	(4)
Earthquake risk to building population	276	(1)
Risk mitigation	277	(5)
References	282	(2)
Earthquake prediction and public policy	284	(46)
Introduction	284	(5)
Why should we care now?	286	(1)
Ethical considerations	287	(1)
Definitions of earthquake prediction	287	(1)
Proposals for earthquake prediction research	288	(1)
Views of social scientists	289	(6)
Report of NAS Panel in 1975	289	(1)
Social science research	290	(2)
Costs and benefits of short-term earthquake prediction	292	(3)
U.S. earthquake prediction program	295	(11)
Current Federal and State laws	298	(2)
NEPEC	300	(4)
Parkfield earthquake prediction experiment	304	(2)
Japan's earthquake prediction program	306	(5)
Long-term forecast of the `Tokai earthquake'	307	(2)
System for short-term prediction	309	(1)
Public perception	310	(1)
Public reactions to predictions	311	(9)
Codes of practice for earthquake prediction	311	(1)
Publicly announced predictions	312	(6)
Common features	318	(1)
Countermeasures	319	(1)
Discussion and conclusion	320	(1)
References	321	(9)
Acknowledgments	330	(1)
Addresses of principal contributors	331	(2)
Index	333