Ecological Modeling: A Common-Sense Approach to Theory and Practice

by William E. Grant (Texas A&M Univ.); Todd M. Swannack (Texas A&M University)

• ISBN13: 9781444308877
• ISBN10: 1444308874
• Format: eBook
• Copyright: 2009-03-01
• Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell

Summary

Ecological Modeling:A Commonsense Approach to Theory and Practice explores how simulation modeling and its new ecological applications can offer solutions to complex natural resource management problems. This is a practical guide for students, teachers, and professional ecologists. Examines four phases of the modeling process: conceptual model formulation, quantitative model specification, model evaluation, and model use Provides useful building blocks for constructing systems simulation models Includes a format for reporting the development and use of simulation models Offers an integrated systems perspective for students, faculty, and professionals Features helpful insights from the author, gained over 30 years of university teaching

Table of Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

Introduction

Common-Sense Solutions: Three Exercises

Modeling Theory

Modeling Practice

Theory, Practice, and Common Sense

Intended Use of this Book

Common-Sense Solutions: Three Exercises.

Common-Sense Solutions

Three Problems

Harvesting Food for the Winter

Estimating the Probability of Population Extinction

Managing the Commons

The Systems Approach to Problem Solving

The Conceptual Model

The Quantitative Model

Model Evaluation

Model Application

The Three Problems Revisited: The Systems Approach in Theory and Practice

Modeling Theory

Theory I: The Conceptual Model

State the Model Objectives (Ia)

Bound the System-of-Interest (Ib)

Categorize the Components within the System-of-Interest (Ic)

State Variables

Material Transfers

Sources and Sinks

Information Transfers

Driving Variables

Constants

Auxiliary Variables

Identify the Relationships among the Components That Are of Interest (Id)

Submodels

Represent the Conceptual Model (Ie)

Conceptual-Model Diagrams

Describe the Expected Patterns of Model Behavior (If)

Theory II: The Quantitative Model

Select the General Quantitative Structure for the Model (IIa)

Choose the Basic Time Unit for the Simulations (IIb)

Identify the Functional Forms of the Model Equations (IIc)

Information on Which to Base the Choice of Functional Forms

Selecting Types of Equations to Represent the Chosen Functional Forms

Estimate the Parameters of the Model Equations (IId)

Statistical Analyses within the Context of Simulation Model Parameterization

Quantifying Qualitative Information

Deterministic- versus Stochastic-Model Parameterization

Execute the Baseline Simulation (IIe)

Baseline Simulations for Stochastic Models

Theory III: Model Evaluation

Assess the Reasonableness of the Model Structure and the Interpretability of Functional Relationships within the Model (IIIa)

Evaluate the Correspondence between Model Behavior and the Expected Patterns of Model Behavior (IIIb)

Examine the Correspondence between Model Projections and the Data from the Real System (IIIc)

Quantitative versus Qualitative Model Evaluation

Determine the Sensitivity of Model Projections to Changes in the Values of Important Parameters (IIId)

Interpreting Sensitivity Analysis within a Model Evaluation Framework

Theory IV: Model Application

Develop and Execute the Experimental Design for the Simulations (IVa)

Analyze and Interpret the Simulation Results (IVb)

Communicate the Simulation Results (IVc)

Modeling Practice.

Some Common Pitfalls

Phase I: Pitfalls: The Conceptual Model

Phase II Pitfalls: The Quantitative Model

Phase III Pitfalls: Model Evaluation

Phase IV Pitfalls: Model Application

The Modeling Process In Practice

Preliminary Conceptual Model (CM)

How to Begin

Adding New Components to the Model

Describing Expected Patterns

Describing the Plan of Attack

Intermediate Developmental Models (IDMi)

Evaluate-Adjust Cycle for each Developmental Model

Sensitivity Analysis of the Last Developmental Model

Final Model (FM)

Theory, Practice, and Common Sense.

The Common-Sense Problems Revisited

Harvesting Food for the Winter

The Preliminary Conceptual Model (CM)

The Last (only) Intermediate Developmental Model (IDMlast)

The Final Model (FM)

Estimating the Probability of Population Extinction

The Preliminary Conceptual Model (CM)

The Intermediate Developmental Models (IDMi)

The Final Model (FM)

Reflections

The Systems Approach as a Complement to Other Methods of Problem Solving

Ecological Modeling as a Problem-Solving Process

Expectations for Ecological Models

A Final Thought

References

Introduction To The Ecological Modeling Literature

Scientific Reports For The Examples in Chapter 2

Effect of Deforestation on Rate of Food Harvest

Effect of Hurricane Frequency on Probability of Population Extinction

Effect of Stocking Rate on Forage and Animal Production

Index

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