Ecosystems and Human Well-Being

by Carpenter, Stephen R.

• ISBN13: 9781559633918
• ISBN10: 1559633913
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2005-12-14
• Publisher: Island Pr

Summary

Scenarios are an invaluable tool for analyzing complex systems and understanding possible outcomes. This second volume of the MA series explores the implications of four different approaches for managing ecosystem services in the face of growing human demand for them: The Global Orchestration approach, in which we emphasize equity, economic growth, and public goods, reacting to ecosystem problems when they reach critical stages. Order from Strength, which emphasizes security and economic growth. Adapting Mosaic, which emphasizes proactive management of ecosystems, local adaptation, and flexible governance. TechnoGarden, a globalized approach with an emphasis on green technology and a proactive approach to managing ecosystems. The Scenarios volume will help decision-makers and managers identify development paths that better maintain the resilience of ecosystems, and can reduce the risk of damage to human well-being and the environment.

Table of Contents

Foreword	xix
Preface	xxi
Acknowledgments	xxiii
Reader's Guide	xxv
Summary: Comparing Alternate Futures of Ecosystem Services and Human Well-being	1	(20)
Part I: State of Knowledge Concerning Ecosystem Forecasts and Scenarios
MA Conceptual Framework	21	(14)
Global Scenarios in Historical Perspective	35	(10)
Ecology in Global Scenarios	45	(26)
State of the Art in Simulating Future Changes in Ecosystem Services	71	(48)
Part II: The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: Rationale and Overview	119	(26)
Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios	145	(28)
Drivers of Change in Ecosystem Condition and Services	173	(50)
Four Scenarios	223	(74)
Part III: Implications of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Scenarios
Changes in Ecosystem Services and Their Drivers across the Scenarios	297	(78)
Biodiversity across Scenarios	375	(34)
Human Well-being across Scenarios	409	(22)
Interactions among Ecosystem Services	431	(18)
Lessons Learned for Scenario Analysis	449	(20)
Policy Synthesis for Key Stakeholders	469	(48)
Appendix A. Color Maps and Figures	517	(20)
Appendix B. Authors	537	(2)
Appendix C. Abbreviations and Acronyms	539	(4)
Appendix D. Glossary	543	(8)
Index	551