Effects-Based Operations (EBO) A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community

by Davis, Paul K.

• ISBN13: 9780833031082
• ISBN10: 0833031082
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2002-01-25
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

This report describes principles and considerations for future analyses of effects-based operations.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	ix
Tables	xi
Summary	xiii
Acknowledgments	xix
Acronyms	xxi
Introduction	1	(6)
Objectives	1	(1)
Background	1	(5)
A New Movement Stressing EBO	1	(1)
A Way of Viewing the EBO Movement	2	(3)
Opportuty and a Grand Challenge	5	(1)
Organization of This Monograph	6	(1)
Definitions, Dimensions, and Distinctions	7	(14)
Definitional Issues	7	(10)
A Suggested Definition	7	(1)
Issues of Scope Implied by the Definition	8	(3)
EBO as Expansion Rather than Substitution	11	(3)
Definitions Need to Work for Both Sides	14	(1)
Allowing Also for Virtual Wars	15	(1)
Synthesis	15	(2)
A Simple Taxonomy and Some Examples of EBO	17	(4)
A Simple Taxonomy	17	(1)
Other Distinctions	18	(1)
Examples	18	(3)
Challenges in Addressing EBO	21	(8)
Lessons in Humility	21	(3)
Strategic Misjudgments Related to Understanding and Influencing Adversaries	21	(3)
Operational-Level Experiences: An EBO Scorecard for the Gulf War	24	(1)
Why EBO Is Difficult: It's the CAS Effect, Stupid!	24	(5)
Unpredictability	26	(1)
Mysteriousness	26	(3)
Suggested Principles for Analysis in the Context of EBO	29	(20)
Suggested Principles	29	(1)
Mission-System Analysis	30	(5)
Characterization	30	(3)
Depicting Results of MSA	33	(1)
But How Much Is Enough?	34	(1)
Highlighting the System Aspects	35	(1)
Exploratory Analysis to Confront Uncertainty	35	(3)
Confronting Uncertainty	35	(1)
Using a Family of Models and Games	35	(2)
The Need to Address probabilities	37	(1)
Discussing Probabilistic Matters Simply	38	(1)
Qualitative Modeling	38	(8)
Initial Observations	38	(4)
Adding Sophistication: Situational Dependence and Time Dependence	42	(1)
Cognitive Models	43	(3)
Pursuit of Empirical Information	46	(1)
Structuring Models Around Command and Control	46	(3)
Examples of How EBO Can be Represented Analytically	49	(30)
A Baseline Problem and Analysis	49	(6)
The Baseline Halt Problem	49	(3)
An Innovative Operational Concept	52	(1)
Enemy Counteractions	53	(2)
Rethinking from an Effects-Based Perspective	55	(12)
Questioning the Assumptions	55	(2)
The Potential for Early Strikes Imposing Delays	57	(3)
Defeating the Enemy Piecemeal	60	(1)
Considering the Upside and the Downside	61	(1)
The Non-Ideal Case: Thinking About Early Use of Ground Forces	62	(5)
Qualitative Modeling	67	(11)
Some Speculations Based on History	67	(1)
What Might a Qualitative Model Look Like?	68	(3)
The Dimensions of a Fuller Theory	71	(2)
Simplifying the Theory, if It Has Been Formulated	73	(2)
A Cognitive Model of a Commander	75	(2)
Going Deeper	77	(1)
Distinctions Between Operations Planning and Defense Planning	78	(1)
Conclusions	79	(6)
A Grand Challenge	79	(1)
Principles for an Approach	79	(2)
Next Steps	81	(4)
Bibliography	85