While poverty has fallen dramatically in China since the start of reforms, there are concerns that the rural elderly may not be benefiting from growth to the same extent as young people and the urban elderly. This book provides empirical analysis of the welfare and living conditions of the rural elderly in China since the early 1990s, and finds a solid case for greater public intervention. It then examines the evolution of the rural pension system over the past two decades, examining the implementation experience and options for strengthening old age protection.

Foreword	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xiii
Contributors	p. xv
Abbreviations	p. xvii
Executive Summary	p. 1
Notes	p. 9
References	p. 9
Trends in the Aging of China's Rural Population: Past, Present, and Future	p. 11
Demographic Transition in China	p. 12
Looking Ahead-Projecting Population Trends	p. 18
Conclusion	p. 26
Note	p. 27
References	p. 27
Poverty and Vulnerability among China's Rural Elderly	p. 29
Poverty among the Rural Elderly	p. 30
Chronic Poverty among the Rural Elderly	p. 30
Vulnerability to Poverty	p. 32
The Geographic Dimension of Poverty	p. 35
Income Determinants of the Elderly	p. 36
Conclusion	p. 40
Notes	p. 41
References	p. 42
Sources of Support among the Rural Elderly	p. 45
Sources of Support among China's Elderly	p. 45
Evidence on Family Support	p. 47
Changes to Living Arrangements and the Well Being of the Elderly	p. 48
Do Private Transfers Respond to Income of the Elderly?	p. 51
The Labor Supply and "Retirement" Decision of China's Rural Elderly	p. 56
Conclusion	p. 63
Notes	p. 64
References	p. 66
Saving Decisions in Rural China	p. 69
Why Is the Household Saving Rate So High in China?	p. 70
Saving Behavior and Migration	p. 73
Conclusion	p. 80
Notes	p. 81
References	p. 82
Evolution of the Rural Pension System in China	p. 85
Initiation and Expansion of Rural Pensions: 1986-98	p. 86
Contraction and Stagnation: 1999-2002	p. 88
Renewal: 2003-09	p. 91
Looking Ahead: The Rural Pilot Program	p. 98
Conclusion	p. 105
Notes	p. 105
References	p. 107
Issues for the Evolution of the Rural Pension System	p. 111
Pension System Design Principles	p. 112
Issues Regarding the Individual Account	p. 112
Could the Basic Rural Pension Benefit Evolve into a Social Pension?	p. 123
The Interaction between Individual Accounts and the Social Pension and the Transitional Generation	p. 132
Moving from Rural Pensions to a Residents' Pension?	p. 133
Conclusion	p. 134
Notes	p. 134
References	p. 135
Appendix: Data Sources for Analysis of Rural Elderly Welfare	p. 139
Index	p. 143
Boxes
International Experiences on Aging and Pension Systems: How Does China Compare?	p. 15
Representative Population Projections in China	p. 20
Rajasthan's Vishwakarma MDC Pension Scheme	p. 122
Figures
Population Growth in China, 1949-2008	p. 13
International Comparison of TFRs, 1950-2010	p. 14
Trend of Population Aging in China, 1953-2005	p. 16
Comparison of Aged Population Proportions in Rural and Urban Areas	p. 16
Changes in Rural Population Pyramids between 1982 and 2005	p. 17
Comparison of Rural and Urban Old-Age Dependency Ratios	p. 18
Changes in Rural Population Pyramids between 2020 and 2030	p. 19
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