Elections and Exit Polling

by Scheuren, Fritz J.; Alvey, Wendy

• ISBN13: 9780470291160
• ISBN10: 0470291168
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-05-27
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

The closeness of recent elections has raised awareness about the accuracy (or inaccuracy) of statistical surveys that attempt to predict voter trends. Drawing on the most current work done in the field by active scholars and practitioners, Elections and Exit Polling covers a broad understanding of the issues, processes, and people involved in modern-day elections and exit polling. Text from personal interviews with Warren Mitofsky, a pioneer in exit polling, is used and contributions from more than two dozen key figures in the field of statistical methodology in elections is included. The text examines recent experiences in specialized surveys designed to track and collect data on elections and voter preferences, making this an essential and timely tool for the survey research community.

Author Biography

Fritz J. Scheuren, PhD, is Vice President for Statistics at the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) at the Uni-versity of Chicago. Dr. Scheuren was the 100th President of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and has a distinguished career in academia and con-sulting that spans over three decades. He has published over 250 journal articles on sampling of operating records, survey design, process quality, auditing, and missing data.

Wendy Alvey has over thirty-five years of experience as a senior statistician and policy analyst for several corp-orate and government entities. Throughout her career, she has conducted extensive re-search on the statistical uses of administrative records in U.S. Census development, and helped pioneer census policies that protect respondent con-fidentiality.

Table of Contents

Preface

Acknowledgments

Contributors

Introduction

Introduction

Definitions

Brief History

A Day in the Life of An Exit Poll

Theory and Methodology

Recent electoral Applications

Some Major Limitations

Recommendations and a Few Predications

References

The Infamous 2000 Election

Introduction

Analysis: Looking Back

Data Quality

Summary Observations

2004: Fraudulent Election

Introduction

The great Election Debate

confidentiality-Another Side of the Controversy

Further Research

Summary Observations

Mid-Term Elections: 2006

Mid-Term Elections: 2006

Pre-Election Polls

Referenda on the ballot

Summary Observations

Globe-Trotting Consultant

Introduction

A Historical Look at Exit Polls From a Mexican Perspective

Muslim Opinions on Political Reform

A Mexican Case Study

Pre-Election Polling in Nagano, Japan

Swedish Public Opinion Polls

Election Polling In Canada

Summary Observations

Looking Ahead: Recommendations for 2008 and Beyond

Introduction

Recommendations for the Future

Some Recent Research

Guidelines for Quality Polling

Next Steps

Summary Observations

Technical Appendix

Introduction

Statistical Methods for Papers in This Volume

Appendix: Survey Questions

Additional Methodological Papers

Summary Observations

Author Index

Index

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