The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday Life

by Gerd Gigerenzer , Zeno Swijtink , Theodore Porter , Lorraine Daston , John Beatty , Lorenz Kruger

• ISBN13: 9780521398381
• ISBN10: 052139838X
• Edition: Reprint
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1990-10-26
• Publisher: Cambridge University Press

Summary

This book tells how quantitative ideas of chance have transformed the natural and social sciences as well as everyday life over the past three centuries. A continuous narrative connects the earliest application of probability and statistics in gambling and insurance to the most recent forays into law, medicine, polling, and baseball. Separate chapters explore the theoretical and methodological impact on biology, physics, and psychology. In contrast to the literature on the mathematical development of probability and statistics, this book centers on how these technical innovations recreated our conceptions of nature, mind, and society.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	xi
Introduction	xiii
Classical probabilities, 1660--1840	1	(36)
Introduction	1	(1)
The beginnings	2	(4)
The classical interpretation	6	(5)
Determinism	11	(3)
Reasonableness	14	(5)
Risk in gambling and insurance	19	(7)
Evidence and causes	26	(6)
The moral sciences	32	(2)
Conclusion	34	(3)
Statistical probabilities, 1820--1900	37	(33)
Introduction	37	(1)
Statistical regularity and I'homme moyen	38	(7)
Opposition to statistics	45	(3)
Statistics and variation	48	(5)
The error law and correlation	53	(6)
The statistical critique of determinism	59	(9)
Conclusion	68	(2)
The inference experts	70	(53)
In want of a ``system of mean results''	70	(3)
Analysis of variance	73	(6)
Fisher's antecedents: early significance tests and comparative experimentation	79	(11)
The controversy: Fisher vs. Neyman and Pearson	90	(16)
Hybridization: the silent solution	106	(3)
The statistical profession: intellectual autonomy	109	(6)
The statistical profession: institutions and influence	115	(5)
Conclusion	120	(3)
Chance and life: controversies in modern biology	123	(40)
Introduction	123	(1)
Spontaneity and Control: chance in physiology	124	(8)
Coincidence and design: chance in natural history	132	(9)
Correlations and causes: chance in genetics	141	(11)
Sampling and selection: chance in evolutionary biology	152	(11)
The probabilistic revolution in physics	163	(40)
The background: classical physics	163	(3)
Probability in classical physics: the epistemic interpretation	166	(4)
Three limitations of classical physics: sources of probabilism	170	(5)
Comments on the three limitations	175	(4)
Mass phenomena and propensities	179	(3)
Explanations from probabilistic assumptions	182	(5)
The puzzle of irreversibility in time	187	(3)
The discontinuity underlying all change	190	(13)
Statistics of the mind	203	(32)
Introduction	203	(1)
The pre-statistical period	204	(1)
The new tools	205	(6)
From tools to theories of mind	211	(3)
A Case study: from thining to judgments under uncertainty	214	(12)
The return of the reasonable man	226	(7)
Conclusion	233	(2)
Numbers rule the world	235	(36)
Introduction	235	(2)
New objects	237	(14)
New values	251	(12)
New rules	263	(7)
Conclusion	270	(1)
The implications of chance	271	(22)
Probabilistic imperialism	271	(3)
What does probability mean?	274	(2)
Determinism	276	(10)
Mechanized inference	286	(3)
Statistical Lebensgefuhl	289	(4)
References	293	(34)
Name index	327	(7)
Subject index	334