Energy at the Crossroads : Global Perspectives and Uncertainties

by Vaclav Smil

• ISBN13: 9780262194921
• ISBN10: 0262194929
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2003-11-01
• Publisher: MIT PRESS

Summary

Winner in the cover category of the AIGA 50 Books/50 Covers of 2003 competition presented by the American Institute of Graphic Arts In Energy at the Crossroads, Vaclav Smil considers the twenty-first century's crucial question: how to reconcile the modern world's unceasing demand for energy with the absolute necessity to preserve the integrity of the biosphere. With this book he offers a comprehensive, accessible guide to today's complex energy issues-how to think clearly and logically about what is possible and what is desirable in our energy future. After a century of unprecedented production growth, technical innovation, and expanded consumption, the world faces a number of critical energy challenges arising from unequal resource distribution, changing demand patterns, and environmental limitations. The fundamental message of Energy at the Crossroadsis that our dependence on fossil fuels must be reduced not because of any imminent resource shortages but because the widespread burning of oil, coal, and natural gas damages the biosphere and presents increasing economic and security problems as the world relies on more expensive supplies and Middle Eastern crude oil. Smil begins with an overview of the twentieth century's long-term trends and achievements in energy production. He then discusses energy prices, the real cost of energy, and "energy linkages"-the effect energy issues have on the economy, on quality of life, on the environment, and in wartime. He discusses the pitfalls of forecasting, giving many examples of failed predictions and showing that unexpected events can disprove complex models. And he examines the pros and cons not only of fossil fuels but also of alternative fuels such as hydroenergy, biomass energy, wind power, and solar power. Finally, he considers the future, focusing on what really matters, what works, what is realistic, and which outcomes are most desirable.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	vii
Reflections on a Life of Energy Studies	ix
1 Long-term Trends and Achievements	1	(62)
A Unique Century	3	(7)
Changing Resource Base	10	(11)
Technical Innovations	21	(10)
The Rising Importance of Electricity	31	(13)
Trading Energy	44	(5)
Consumption Trends	49	(11)
Looking Back and Looking Ahead	60	(3)
2 Energy Linkages	63	(58)
Energy and the Economy	65	(6)
Deconstructing Energy Intensities	71	(10)
Energy Prices	81	(7)
Real Costs of Energy	88	(9)
Energy and the Quality of Life	97	(8)
Energy and the Environment	105	(11)
Energy and War	116	(5)
3 Against Forecasting	121	(60)
Failing Endeavors	122	(2)
Conversion Techniques	124	(13)
Primary Energy Requirements	137	(8)
Demand for Electricity	145	(4)
Energy Prices and Intensities	149	(12)
Substitutions of Energy Resources	161	(6)
Complex Models and Realities	167	(5)
Unexpected Happenings	172	(6)
In Favor of Normative Scenarios	178	(3)
4 Fossil Fuel Futures	181	(58)
Is the Decline of Global Crude Oil Production Imminent?	184	(11)
Different Perspectives on the Oil Era	195	(18)
How Far Can Natural Gas Go?	213	(16)
What Will Be Coal's Role?	229	(10)
5 Nonfossil Energies	239	(78)
Hydroenergy's Potential and Limits	246	(13)
Biomass Energies	259	(13)
Electricity from Wind	272	(12)
Direct Solar Conversions	284	(6)
How Promising Are Other Renewables?	290	(6)
Infrastructural Changes and the Future Hydrogen Economy	296	(13)
Is There a Future for Nuclear Electricity?	309	(8)
6 Possible Futures	317	(58)
Efficient Use of Energy	318	(14)
Beyond Higher Efficiency	332	(7)
Energy and the Future of the Biosphere	339	(10)
What Really Matters	349	(5)
What Does, and Does Not, Help	354	(8)
Realities and a Wish List	362	(13)
Units and Abbreviations	375	(2)
Prefixes	377	(2)
Acronyms	379	(4)
References	383	(36)
Index	419