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Acknowledgments | p. vii |
Foreword | p. viii |
Acronyms and Abbreviations | p. x |
Executive Summary | p. xii |
Evolution of Infra-regional Trade in Southeast Europe: The Role of CEFTA for Enhancing Regional Trade Integration | p. 1 |
Abstract | p. 2 |
Introduction | p. 3 |
Trade Patterns in the SEE Region | p. 5 |
Patterns and Structure of Trade Flows in SEE | p. 7 |
Decomposition of Intra-regional Trade | p. 11 |
Intra- versus Inter-industry Trade | p. 15 |
Quality of Foreign Trade Statistics for the Region | p. 18 |
The Role of Trade Regulations, Trade-related Business Environment, and Rules of Origin in Trade Expansion and Integration | p. 22 |
Technical Regulations and Standards | p. 22 |
Trade-Related Business Environment | p. 29 |
Cost and Quality of Trade Logistics | p. 35 |
Rules of Origin | p. 38 |
How Are Firms Reacting to Regional Trade Integration? | p. 41 |
The Case of Agrokor | p. 41 |
The Case of ArcelorMittal | p. 42 |
Conclusions and Recommendations | p. 44 |
Annexes | p. 46 |
Trade Structure by HS-2 Product Category in 2007 | p. 46 |
Trade Structure by HS-2 Product Category in 2008 | p. 48 |
Net Exports to CEFTA, the Top and Bottom Five HS 2-digit Products in 2008 | p. 50 |
Description of 2-digit HS Categories | p. 51 |
Labor Mobility in Southeast Europe | p. 53 |
Abstract | p. 54 |
Introduction | p. 55 |
CEFTA: The Setting | p. 56 |
Population and Labor Force | p. 56 |
Economic Growth and Employment | p. 58 |
Migration Patterns | p. 61 |
The Diaspora | p. 64 |
Migrants' Education Levels | p. 64 |
Migrant Stocks in the CEFTA Countries | p. 66 |
Irregular Migration | p. 68 |
Remittances | p. 69 |
Labor Mobility Provisions in Free Trade Agreements | p. 71 |
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) | p. 71 |
ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) | p. 72 |
Caribbean Community (CARICOM) | p. 72 |
East Africa Community (EAC) | p. 74 |
Mercado Comun del Sur (Mercosur) | p. 75 |
North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) | p. 76 |
European Union (EU) | p. 76 |
Lessons from Labor Mobility Provisions of FTAs | p. 79 |
The Benefits (and Costs) of Labor Mobility Provisions | p. 83 |
Overall Production and Productivity | p. 83 |
The Distribution of Benefits and Costs | p. 84 |
The Transition to EU Requirements | p. 86 |
Implementing Mobility in CEFTA | p. 87 |
Migration Management: Alignment with the EU | p. 87 |
Informal Economies and Work Permits | p. 89 |
Credential Recognition, Social Security, Other Issues | p. 90 |
Conclusions | p. 92 |
The Impact of Establishing a Virtual Customs Union between Southeast Europe and the European Union | p. 95 |
Abstract | p. 96 |
Introduction | p. 97 |
Customs Union versus a Virtual Customs Union | p. 101 |
Tariff Profile of Southeast Europe | p. 106 |
The Level of Adjustment | p. 107 |
Estimates of Trade Diversion and Trade Creation Due to Adoption of EU's CET | p. 117 |
Breakdown of Trade Diversion and Creation among Trade Partners | p. 121 |
Summary and Policy Recommendations | p. 125 |
Appendix: Consumer Surplus by Product and Country | p. 129 |
References | p. 135 |
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