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Gregory Monahan is a consultant and the former head of risk practice for SAS Australia. His consulting clients include SAS Australia/New Zealand, and the University of New South Wales. While at SAS Australia, he helped define and execute the marketing strategy for risk management products, primarily credit and operational risk. In addition, he helped develop the first version of the SAS Credit Risk Management Solution.
Preface | p. xi |
Acknowledgments | p. xv |
Introduction | p. xvii |
Defining Enterprise Risk Management | p. 1 |
Risks | p. 4 |
Risk Drivers | p. 5 |
Controls | p. 7 |
Inherent and Residual Risk | p. 8 |
Events | p. 9 |
Outcomes | p. 9 |
Management | p. 10 |
Enterprise Risk Management | p. 11 |
Strategic Objectives | p. 13 |
Financial Objectives | p. 14 |
Statement of Financial Position | p. 14 |
Statement of Financial Performance | p. 15 |
Market Objectives | p. 15 |
Customers | p. 16 |
Suppliers | p. 16 |
Competitors | p. 17 |
Partners | p. 17 |
Regulators | p. 17 |
Operational Objectives | p. 18 |
Corporate Governance | p. 18 |
Human Resources | p. 18 |
Management Team | p. 19 |
Processes | p. 19 |
Systems | p. 20 |
Note on the Interdependence of Objectives | p. 20 |
At-Risk Concept | p. 22 |
A Very Simple Distribution | p. 23 |
A Slightly More Interesting Distribution | p. 24 |
Location of the Distribution | p. 30 |
Basic Statistical Measures | p. 32 |
At-Risk Measure | p. 33 |
SOAR (the Methodology): Strategic Objectives at Risk | p. 38 |
SOAR Methodology Components | p. 38 |
Strategic Objectives | p. 39 |
Execution Resources (The Enterprise Risk Management Office) | p. 44 |
SOAR Process | p. 45 |
SOAR (the Process) | p. 46 |
Set Metrics for Defined Strategic Objectives | p. 48 |
Why Measure? | p. 49 |
Classes of Metrics | p. 50 |
Metrics for Strategic Objectives | p. 51 |
Metrics for Risk Drivers | p. 52 |
Metrics for Controls | p. 53 |
Setting Metrics | p. 54 |
Cause and Effect | p. 55 |
Cause-and-Effect Diagrams | p. 59 |
Causal Loop Diagrams | p. 59 |
Process Flow Charts | p. 60 |
Regression Analysis | p. 62 |
Sensitivity Analysis | p. 62 |
Scenario Analysis | p. 63 |
Examples of Metrics | p. 65 |
Setting Target Values for Metrics | p. 66 |
Observe Metric Values | p. 72 |
Observation Methods | p. 72 |
Gathering Available Data | p. 72 |
Calculating Data | p. 75 |
Self-Assessment | p. 75 |
Recording Observations of Metrics | p. 76 |
Frequency of Observation | p. 77 |
Triggers | p. 78 |
Analyze Movements in Metrics | p. 80 |
Conducting the Analysis | p. 80 |
Validating the Data | p. 84 |
Validating Metric Choice | p. 89 |
Reporting Findings | p. 90 |
React to the Metric Analysis | p. 94 |
Record the Rationale for Your Reaction | p. 97 |
Simple Task of Reacting According to the Measures | p. 97 |
Confidence | p. 106 |
Difficult Task of Managing Human Behaviors | p. 107 |
SOAR Dashboard | p. 112 |
Today's Dashboard | p. 112 |
SOAR Black Box Recorder | p. 116 |
Existing Enterprise Risk Management Approaches | p. 117 |
Six Sigma | p. 117 |
Balanced Scorecard | p. 118 |
COSO | p. 118 |
Regulation and Compliance | p. 121 |
Sarbanes-Oxley Act | p. 121 |
Basel II | p. 122 |
AS/NZS 4360:2004:Risk Management | p. 122 |
Organizational Risk Management Policy | p. 122 |
Application of the Concept of "Shifting the Distribution" | p. 124 |
GE | p. 124 |
Bank Treasury Operations | p. 125 |
Humans in Daily Life | p. 125 |
Airlines | p. 126 |
One Other Example | p. 127 |
Implementing the SOAR Methodology | p. 129 |
Resourcing the Enterprise Risk Management Office | p. 129 |
Enterprise Risk Management Officers | p. 130 |
Enabling Technology | p. 130 |
Applying the SOAR Process | p. 132 |
SOAR in Action Example | p. 135 |
Set (Metrics) | p. 135 |
Cause and Effect (and Why, Why, Why?) | p. 142 |
Cause-and-Effect Diagrams | p. 145 |
Causal Loop Diagrams | p. 145 |
Process Flowcharts | p. 145 |
Regression Analysis | p. 146 |
Sensitivity Analysis | p. 146 |
Scenario Analysis | p. 147 |
Observe (End-of-Year Metric Values) | p. 148 |
Analyze (Movements in Metric Values) | p. 149 |
React (to the End-of-Year Analysis) | p. 157 |
Set | p. 158 |
Observe | p. 158 |
Analyze | p. 159 |
React | p. 161 |
Conclusion | p. 163 |
SOAR Methodology FAQ | p. 165 |
Resources | p. 171 |
Index | p. 173 |
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