The Essential Herman Kahn In Defense of Thinking

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  • Format: Paperback
  • Copyright: 2009-06-16
  • Publisher: Lexington Books

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By his untimely death in 1983, Herman Kahn was recognized by both friends and intellectual adversaries as "one of the world's most creative and best minds." The current, growing resurgence of interest in Kahn's ideas and intellectual legacy demonstrates the enduring relevance of his work. Yet, in spite of the constant influence of his arguments, there is a shortage of books summarizing Kahn's essential contributions, and thus his work is not as well known as it should be.

Author Biography

Paul Dragos Aligica is senior fellow at the Mercatus Center, faculty fellow at the James Buchanan Center for Political Economy, George Mason University, and adjunct fellow at the Hudson Institute. Kenneth R. Weinstein is chief executive officer of the Hudson Institute.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgmentsp. vii
Introductionp. 1
Thinking about the Unthinkable: Scenarios, Grand Strategy, and Thermonuclear War
In Defense of Thinkingp. 9
Twelve Nonissues and Twelve Almost Nonissuesp. 27
The Revolution in Warfare: Continuities and Discontinuitiesp. 39
On Escalationp. 53
Seizing the Moral, Political, and Strategic High Groundp. 63
A World Turning Point: Economic Growth, Cultural Change, and the Long View
The Big Picture-and Some Details: Watersheds of Historyp. 79
Viewing Growth in Contextp. 91
Four Characteristic Views of Two Basic Images of the Earth-Centered Perspectivep. 99
Some Current Cultural Contradictions of Economic Growth: The New Emphasesp. 115
Economic Development: Economic and Cultural Parametersp. 129
The Alienated-Affluent Societyp. 141
The Challenge of the Future: Futurology, Methodology, and Policy Research
The Objectives of Future-Oriented Policy Researchp. 155
The Agnostic Use of Information and Conceptsp. 167
Forecasting the Future: History Happens in Straight Lines and Curvesp. 177
A Methodological Framework: The Alternative World Futures Approachp. 181
The Method of Classes of Variablesp. 199
Ways to Go Wrongp. 205
Technological Innovation: Mistakes of Omission and Commissionp. 215
The Task Ahead: Observations, Recommendations, and Parting Polemics
The Normative Perspective and the Ideology of Tomorrowp. 223
Transitional Problemsp. 229
The Expert and Educated Incapacityp. 237
Current Western Cultural Trendsp. 247
Futurology and the Future of Economic Developmentp. 253
The Task Aheadp. 259
Appendix: Herman Kahn: A Bio-Bibliographical Note Paul Dragos Aligica and Kenneth R. Weinsteinp. 267
Selected Bibliographyp. 273
Indexp. 275
About the Editorsp. 277
Table of Contents provided by Ingram. All Rights Reserved.

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