Essential Statistics for Public Managers and Policy Analysts

by Berman, Evan M.

• ISBN13: 9781568026473
• ISBN10: 1568026471
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2001-09-01
• Publisher: Cq Pr

Author Biography

Evan M. Berman is associate professor in the Department of Public Administration at the University of Central Florida in Orlando.

Table of Contents

Preface	xv
Statistics Roadmap	xx
Introduction	xxiii
Why Research? An Introduction	1	(26)
Chapter Objectives	1	(2)
Research Design	3	(8)
Six Steps	3	(2)
Relationships	5	(3)
Rival Hypotheses and Limitations of Experimental Study Designs	8	(3)
Measurement and Sampling	11	(7)
Measuring Concepts	11	(1)
Measuring Variables: Levels and Scales	12	(4)
Measuring Variables: Sampling	16	(2)
Data Collection	18	(5)
Administrative Data	18	(1)
Surveys	19	(1)
Other Data Sources	20	(1)
Putting It Together	21	(2)
Conclusion	23	(1)
Key Terms	24	(1)
Notes	24	(3)
Univariate Analysis: Description	27	(22)
Chapter Objectives	27	(2)
Measures of Central Tendency	29	(6)
The Mean	29	(1)
The Median	30	(2)
The Mode	32	(1)
Using Grouped Data	33	(2)
Measures of Dispersion	35	(10)
Boxplots	35	(3)
Frequency Distributions	38	(2)
Standard Deviation	40	(5)
Conclusion	45	(1)
Key Terms	45	(1)
Notes	46	(3)
Hypothesis Testing with Chi-Square	49	(22)
Chapter Objectives	49	(1)
Contingency Tables	50	(1)
Chi-Square	51	(2)
Hypothesis Testing	53	(11)
The Null Hypothesis	55	(1)
Statistical Significance	56	(1)
The Five Steps of Hypothesis Testing	57	(2)
Chi-Square Test Assumptions	59	(1)
Statistical Significance and Sample Size	60	(2)
A Useful Digression: The Goodness-of Fit Test	62	(2)
The Practical Significance of Relationships	64	(2)
Rival Hypotheses: Adding a Control Variable	66	(1)
Conclusion	67	(2)
Key Terms	69	(1)
Notes	69	(2)
Measures of Association	71	(22)
Chapter Objectives	71	(1)
Proportional Reduction in Error	72	(2)
Calculating PRE	72	(1)
Paired Cases	73	(1)
Statistics for Two Nominal Variables	74	(6)
Two Nominal Variables	75	(2)
The Problem of Dependent Samples	77	(1)
Small Sample Tests for Two-By-Two Tables	78	(2)
Statistics for Mixed Ordinal-Nominal Data	80	(4)
Evaluating Rankings	80	(3)
Equivalency of Two Samples	83	(1)
Statistics for Two Ordinal Variables	84	(3)
Conclusion	87	(1)
Key Terms	88	(1)
Notes	88	(5)
T-Tests and Anova	93	(24)
Chapter Objectives	93	(1)
Creating Index Variables	94	(2)
T-Tests	96	(8)
T-Test Assumptions	98	(3)
A Working Example	101	(3)
Analysis of Variance	104	(7)
ANOVA Assumptions	108	(1)
A Working Example	108	(3)
Conclusion	111	(1)
Key Terms	112	(1)
Notes	113	(4)
Regression I: Estimation	117	(18)
Chapter Objectives	117	(1)
Simple Regression	118	(6)
Scatterplot	119	(1)
Test of Significance	119	(2)
Goodness of Fit	121	(2)
Assumptions and Notation	123	(1)
Multiple Regression	124	(7)
Model Specification	124	(2)
A Working Example	126	(2)
Goodness of Fit for Multiple Regression	128	(1)
Standardized Coefficients	128	(1)
F-Test	129	(1)
Use of Nominal Variables	129	(2)
Conclusion	131	(1)
Key Terms	132	(1)
Notes	132	(3)
Regression II: Assumptions, Time Series	135	(24)
Chapter Objectives	135	(1)
Testing Assumptions	136	(9)
Outliers	136	(1)
Multicollinearity	137	(2)
Linearity	139	(1)
Heteroscedasticity	140	(2)
Measurement and Specification	142	(3)
Time Series Analysis	145	(6)
Detecting Autocorrelation	145	(1)
Correcting Autocorrelation	146	(2)
Policy Evaluation	148	(2)
Lagged Variables	150	(1)
Forecasting	151	(6)
Forecasting with Few Observations	152	(3)
Forecasting with Periodic Effects	155	(2)
Conclusion	157	(1)
Key Terms	157	(1)
Notes	158	(1)
Advanced Statistics	159	(18)
Chapter Objectives	159	(1)
Logistic Regression	160	(3)
Path Analysis	163	(3)
Survival Analysis	166	(1)
Regression-Based Forecasting	167	(4)
Forecasting with Leading Indicators	168	(1)
Curve Estimation	168	(1)
Exponential Smoothing	169	(2)
ARIMA	171	(1)
Precis of Other Techniques	171	(3)
Beyond Logistic Regression	172	(1)
Exploratory Analysis	172	(1)
Beyond Life Tables	173	(1)
Beyond One-Way ANOVA	173	(1)
Beyond Path Analysis	174	(1)
Conclusion	174	(1)
Key Terms	175	(1)
Notes	175	(2)
Appendix: Statistical Tables	177
Normal Distribution	178
Chi-square Distribution	179
T-test Distribution	180
F-test Distribution	181
Durbin-Watson Distribution	185