Estimation and Prediction of Ballistic Missile Trajectories

by Isaacson, Jeffrey A.; Vaughan, David R.

• ISBN13: 9780833023766
• ISBN10: 0833023764
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1996-05-29
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

To examine the capabilities satellites can bring to bear in the theater missile defense (TMD) environment, the authors describe a methodology, based on Kalman filtering, for the estimation and prediction of ballistic missile trajectories and then apply the methodology to a notional theater ballistic missile.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Tables	ix
Summary	xi
Acknowledgments	xxv
Acronyms	xxvii
Introduction	1	(10)
TMD Development Is Under Way	5	(3)
Satellite Sensors Support TMD Battle Management	8	(1)
Organization of the Report	9	(2)
Theoretical Underpinnings	11	(8)
Linear Estimation and Prediction	11	(3)
Linear Approximation to Nonlinear Systems	14	(5)
Estimation and Prediction of Ballistic Missile Trajectories	19	(22)
Geometry of Missile-Sensor Engagement	19	(6)
Filter Methodology	25	(7)
Notional Results	32	(9)
Launch Point Uncertainty (LPU)	32	(5)
Missile Location Uncertainty (MLU)	37	(1)
Revisit Time Sensitivities	38	(3)
The Effect of Bias Errors	41	(18)
Suboptimal Treatment of Bias	42	(8)
Notional Results	45	(5)
Optimal Treatment of Bias	50	(9)
Notional Results	53	(6)
Concluding Remarks	59	(6)
Appendix: Missile Trajectories on the Earth's Surface	65	(4)
Bibliography	69