9780792358404

Europe : One Continent, Different Worlds Population Scenarios for the 21st Century

by ;
  • ISBN13:

    9780792358404

  • ISBN10:

    0792358406

  • Format: Hardcover
  • Copyright: 1999-08-01
  • Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub
  • Purchase Benefits
List Price: $100.00
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Summary

On the basis of two sets of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration, the population scenarios presented project changes in the size and age structure of the population over the next 50 years for 33 European countries. Describes the specific assumptions and presents the main demographic outcomes.

Table of Contents

Preface ix
List of authors
xiii
List of figures
xv
List of tables
xvii
Introduction to the Uniformity and Diversity scenarios
1(4)
Determinants of demographic behaviour
5(28)
Theoretical framework
5(3)
The socioeconomic dimension
8(9)
Economy
9(3)
Education
12(1)
Health
13(2)
The state of technology
15(2)
The cultural dimension
17(9)
Power distance
18(2)
Conservatism
20(2)
Gender equality
22(2)
Individualism
24(1)
Post-materialism
25(1)
Empirical analysis of the determinants
26(7)
Data description
26(1)
Results
27(6)
Uniformity and Diversity defined
33(12)
Introduction
33(1)
Clustering of the European countries
33(4)
Uniformity and Diversity scenarios
37(8)
Uniformity versus Diversity
37(3)
An operational definition of the Uniformity scenario
40(2)
An operational definition of the Diversity scenario
42(3)
Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for fertility
45(26)
Introduction
45(1)
Differences in fertility trends between European countries
46(4)
Northern Europe (Maternalistic cluster)
46(1)
Western Europe (Pragmatic cluster)
47(1)
Southern Europe (Paternalistic cluster)
48(1)
Central and eastern Europe (Intermediate and post-totalitarian clusters)
49(1)
Fertility prospects for Europe
50(2)
Fertility scenarios
52(19)
Method
52(2)
Uniformity scenario
54(2)
Diversity scenario
56(2)
Fertility differences between the Uniformity and Diversity scenarios
58(13)
Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for mortality
71(20)
Introduction
71(1)
Differences in mortality between European countries
72(3)
Northern, western and southern Europe
72(1)
Central and eastern Europe
73(2)
Main differences
75(1)
Mortality prospects for Europe
75(5)
Mortality assumptions
80(11)
Method of projection mortality
80(1)
Uniformity scenario
81(2)
Diversity scenario
83(1)
Differences between the scenarios: the age-specific mortality patterns of Sweden and Bulgaria
84(7)
Uniformity and Diversity scenarios for international migration
91(18)
Introduction
91(2)
Backgrounds to differences in international migration trends in Europe
93(4)
Northern Europe
93(1)
Western Europe
94(1)
Southern Europe
95(1)
Central and Eastern Europe
96(1)
Migration prospects for Europe
97(1)
Migration scenarios
98(11)
Method
98(3)
Uniformity scenario
101(3)
Diversity scenario
104(1)
Main differences between the Uniformity and the Diversity scenario
105(4)
Population development in Europe in the 21st century
109(40)
Introduction
109(1)
Population change
110(5)
Natural growth versus net migration
115(6)
Ageing
121(8)
Dejuvenation
129(5)
The working-age population
134(2)
Age dependency ratios
136(4)
Population developments in the individual clusters
140(6)
Northern Europe or the maternalistic cluster
140(1)
Western Europe or the pragmatic cluster
141(2)
Southern Europe or the paternalistic cluster
143(1)
Central Europe or the intermediate cluster
144(1)
Eastern Europe or the post-totalitarian cluster
145(1)
Variability in population growth in the scenarios
146(3)
One Europe: how many different worlds in the 21st century?
149(14)
Introduction
149(2)
Scenario assumptions
151(2)
Results
153(3)
How realistic are the scenarios?
156(2)
Implications of the scenarios
158(5)
References 163(6)
Appendix 1 169(16)
Appendix 2 185

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