Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles

by Jackson, Brian A.; Frelinger, David R.; Lostumbo, Michael J.; Button, Robert W.

• ISBN13: 9780833041692
• ISBN10: 083304169X
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2007-11-05
• Publisher: RAND CORPORATION

Summary

Develops approaches for assessing asymmetric attacks using cruise missiles or unmanned aerial vehicles, a novel potential threat to homeland targets, in the context of other options available to terrorist actors and for identifying the factors that might make these technologies attractive to adversaries. These approaches provide the basis for exploring defensive options.

Table of Contents

Abbreviations
Introduction	p. 1
Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles: Technological Change Producing a Potential Threat	p. 2
The RAND Approach	p. 7
Task 1: Conduct a Red Analysis of Alternatives	p. 8
Task 2: Assess the Implications for the Defense	p. 8
About This Report	p. 9
UAVs and Cruise Missiles as Asymmetric Threats: How Do These Systems Compare with Alternative Attack Modes?	p. 11
Characteristics of UAVs and Cruise Missiles	p. 14
Comparing the Capabilities of UAVs and Cruise Missiles in Attack Scenarios to Those of Alternative Attack Modes	p. 16
Direct Attack	p. 18
Indirect Attack	p. 23
Aerial Dispersal	p. 25
Conclusions	p. 25
What Adversary Operational Problems Can UAVs and Cruise Missiles Best Solve and How Do UAVs and Cruise Missiles Compare with Alternative Solutions?	p. 27
Enable Attack over Perimeter Defenses	p. 29
Alternative Means for Defeating Perimeter Defenses	p. 31
Assessment of Options for Defeating Perimeter Defenses	p. 35
Enable Attack over National Borders	p. 37
Alternative Means for Attacking Across National Borders	p. 39
Assessment of Options for Attacking Across National Borders	p. 41
Enable Multiple Simultaneous Attacks	p. 42
Alternative Means for Staging Multiple Simultaneous Attacks	p. 43
Assessment of Options for Staging Multiple Simultaneous Attacks	p. 45
Enable an Attack Campaign	p. 47
Alternative Means for Sustaining an Attack Campaign	p. 49
Assessment of Options for Sustaining an Attack Campaign	p. 51
Enable Aerial Attack of Area Targets with Unconventional Weapons	p. 52
Alternative Means for Dispersing Weapons over Area Targets	p. 53
Assessment of Options for Dispersing Weapons over Area Targets	p. 55
Conclusions	p. 57
What Are the Terrorist Group Characteristics and Preferences Relevant to the Acquisition and Use of Technology?	p. 61
Access to and Costs Associated with UAV and Cruise-Missile Technologies	p. 62
Access to and Costs Associated with Alternative Technologies	p. 64
Ability and Willingness to Develop the Expertise Necessary to Operate the Systems	p. 65
Technological Preferences	p. 66
Conclusions: Two Decisionmaking Pathways	p. 66
Path I	p. 68
Path II	p. 69
Considering Defensive Strategies and Options	p. 71
Options Available to the Defender	p. 73
Identifying and Catching the Perpetrators: Intelligence, Law Enforcement, and Forensics	p. 73
Controlling the Spread of UAVs and Cruise Missiles: Counterproliferation	p. 76
Enabling Targeted Sites to React Before Impact: Detection and Warning	p. 77
Acting Against the Incoming Weapon or the Launcher: Active Defenses and Prelaunch Engagement	p. 79
Strengthening Targets to Survive Attack: Passive Defenses	p. 80
Bouncing Back from Attack: Response, Recovery, and Reconstitution	p. 81
Comparing the Options: Bases for a Blue Analysis of Alternatives	p. 82
How Do the Options Differ in Their Effect on the Threat from UAVs and Cruise Missiles?	p. 83
Do the Options Provide Defensive Benefits with Respect to Other Forms of Attack Beyond UAVs and Cruise Missiles?	p. 85
How Do the Costs Compare?	p. 86
Are the Solutions Appropriate for the Homeland?	p. 88
Are There Technical or Organizational Challenges That Might Threaten the Benefits of an Option's Being Realized?	p. 89
Defense Conclusions: Choosing Among Available Options	p. 89
Deterring Asymmetrtic Use of UAVs and Cruise Missiles?	p. 94
Deterrence by Punishment	p. 94
Deterrence by Denial	p. 95
Conclusions	p. 97
Anticipating the Attractiveness of a Novel Threat to Adversaries	p. 98
Implications for the Defense	p. 98
Bibliography	p. 101
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