Evaluation and Decision Models : A Critical Perspective

by Bouyssou, Denis

• ISBN13: 9780792372509
• ISBN10: 0792372506
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2000-12-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

The purpose of Evaluation and Decision Models: A Critical Perspective is to provide a critical thinking framework for all individuals utilizing decision and evaluation models, whether it be for research or applications. It is axiomatic that all evaluation and decision models suffer some limitations. There are situations where a decision model will not perform to expectations. This book argues that there is no best decision or evaluation model, but that decision-makers must understand the principles of formal evaluation and decision models and apply them critically. Hence, the book seeks to deepen our understanding of evaluation and decision models and encourage users of these models to think more analytically about them. The authors work in six different European universities. Their backgrounds are varied: mathematics, economics, engineering, law, and geology, and they teach in engineering, business, mathematics, computer science, and psychology in their universities. As a group, the authors have particular expertise in a variety of decision models that include preference modelling, fuzzy logic, aggregation techniques, social choice theory, artificial intelligence, problem structuring, measurement theory, operations research, and multiple criteria decision support. In addition to their decision analysis research, all the authors have been involved in a variety of high-impact applications which include software evaluation, location of a nuclear repository, the rehabilitation of a sewer network, and the location of high-voltage lines. It is this variety within the authorship that unifies this book into a systematic examination of how best formal decision models can be used. The monograph is an excellent tool for researchers of decision analysis and decision-makers.

Table of Contents

Introduction	1	(6)
Motivations	1	(2)
Audience	3	(1)
Structure	3	(1)
Outline	3	(2)
Who are the authors?	5	(1)
Conventions	6	(1)
Acknowledgements	6	(1)
Choosing on the basis of several opinions	7	(22)
Analysis of some voting systems	9	(9)
Uninominal election	9	(4)
Election by rankings	13	(3)
Some theoretical results	16	(2)
Modelling the preferences of a voter	18	(6)
Rankings	19	(3)
Fuzzy relations	22	(1)
Other models	23	(1)
The voting process	24	(1)
Definition of the set of candidates	24	(1)
Definition of the set of the voters	25	(1)
Choice of the aggregation method	25	(1)
Social choice and multiple criteria decision support	25	(2)
Analogies	25	(2)
Conclusions	27	(2)
Building and aggregating evaluations	29	(24)
Introduction	29	(2)
Motivation	29	(1)
Evaluating students in Universities	30	(1)
Grading students in a given course	31	(10)
What is a grade?	31	(1)
The grading process	32	(5)
Interpreting grades	37	(3)
Why use grades?	40	(1)
Aggregating grades	41	(11)
Rules for aggregating grades	41	(2)
Aggregating grades using a weighted average	43	(9)
Conclusions	52	(1)
Constructing measures	53	(20)
The human development index	54	(7)
Scale Normalisation	56	(1)
Compensation	57	(1)
Dimension independence	58	(1)
Scale construction	59	(1)
Statistical aspects	60	(1)
Air quality index	61	(3)
Monotonicity	62	(1)
Non compensation	62	(1)
Meaningfulness	63	(1)
The decathlon score	64	(3)
Role of the decathlon score	66	(1)
Indicators and multiple criteria decision support	67	(3)
Conclusions	70	(3)
Assessing competing projects	73	(18)
Introduction	73	(2)
The principles of CBA	75	(7)
Choosing between investment projects in private firms	75	(2)
From Corporate Finance to CBA	77	(2)
Theoretical foundations	79	(3)
Some examples in transportation studies	82	(4)
Prevision of traffic	82	(1)
Time gains	83	(1)
Security gains	84	(1)
Other effects and remarks	85	(1)
Conclusions	86	(5)
Comparing on several attributes	91	(62)
Thierry's choice	91	(11)
Description of the case	92	(3)
Reasoning with preferences	95	(7)
The weighted sum	102	(8)
Transforming the evaluations	102	(1)
Using the weighted sum on the case	103	(1)
Is the resulting ranking reliable?	104	(1)
The difficulties of a proper usage of the weighted sum	105	(4)
Conclusion	109	(1)
The additive value model	110	(19)
Direct methods for determining single-attribute value functions	111	(4)
AHP and Saaty's eigenvalue method	115	(7)
An indirect method for assessing single-attribute value functions and trade-offs	122	(6)
Conclusion	128	(1)
Outranking methods	129	(20)
Condorcet-like procedures in decision analysis	129	(5)
A simple outranking method	134	(1)
Using ELECTRE I on the case	135	(9)
Main features and problems of elementary outranking approaches	144	(2)
Advanced outranking methods: from thresholding towards valued relations	146	(3)
General conclusion	149	(4)
Deciding automatically	153	(32)
Introduction	153	(2)
A System with Explicit Decision Rules	155	(21)
Designing a decision system for automatic watering	156	(1)
Linking symbolic and numerical representations	156	(3)
Interpreting input labels as scalars	159	(2)
Interpreting input labels as intervals	161	(6)
Interpreting input labels as fuzzy intervals	167	(4)
Interpreting output labels as (fuzzy) intervals	171	(5)
A System with Implicit Decision Rules	176	(5)
Controlling the quality of biscuits during baking	176	(2)
Automatising human decisions by learning from examples	178	(3)
An hybrid approach for automatic decision-making	181	(2)
Conclusion	183	(2)
Dealing with uncertainty	185	(26)
Introduction	185	(1)
The context	185	(1)
The model	186	(6)
The set of actions	186	(1)
The set of criteria	187	(1)
Uncertainties and scenarios	188	(2)
The temporal dimension	190	(2)
Summary of the model	192	(1)
A didactic example	192	(15)
The expected value approach	193	(1)
Some comments on the previous approach	193	(2)
The expected utility approach	195	(2)
Some comments on the expected utility approach	197	(1)
The approach applied in this case: first step	198	(4)
Comment on the first step	202	(3)
The approach applied in this case: second step	205	(2)
Conclusions	207	(4)
Supporting decisions	211	(32)
Preliminaries	212	(1)
The Decision Process	213	(3)
Decision Support	216	(17)
Problem Formulation	217	(2)
The Evaluation Model	219	(6)
The final recommendation	225	(8)
Conclusions	233	(10)
Appendix A	235	(3)
Appendix B	238	(5)
Conclusion	243	(10)
Formal methods are all around us	243	(3)
What have we learned?	246	(3)
What can be expected?	249	(4)
Bibliography	253	(16)
Index	269