Experts in Uncertainty Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science

by Cooke, Roger M.; Shrader-Frechette, Kristin

• ISBN13: 9780195064650
• ISBN10: 0195064658
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1991-10-24
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

This book is an extensive survey and critical examination of the literature on the use of expert opinion in scientific inquiry and policy making. The elicitation, representation, and use of expert opinion is increasingly important for two reasons: advancing technology leads to more and more complex decision problems, and technologists are turning in greater numbers to "expert systems" and other similar artifacts of artificial intelligence. Cooke here considers how expert opinion is being used today, how an expert's uncertainty is or should be represented, how people do or should reason with uncertainty, how the quality and usefulness of expert opinion can be assessed, and how the views of several experts might be combined. He argues for the importance of developing practical models with a transparent mathematic foundation for the use of expert opinion in science, and presents three tested models, termed "classical," "Bayesian," and "psychological scaling." Detailed case studies illustrate how they can be applied to a diversity of real problems in engineering and planning.

Table of Contents

Introduction	p. xi
Experts and Opinions	p. 1
Think Tanks and Oracles	p. 3
Conclusions: Toward a Methodology for Expert Opinion	p. 17
Expert Opinion in Practice	p. 19
Probabilistic Thinking	p. 47
Heuristics and Biases	p. 63
Building Rational Consensus	p. 80
Subjective Probability	p. 85
Savage's Normative Decision Theory	p. 87
Relative Frequencies and Exchangeability	p. 108
Elicitation and Scoring	p. 121
Scoring Rules for Evaluating and Weighing Assessments	p. 136
Two Experiments with Calibration and Entropy	p. 158
Combining Expert Opinions	p. 169
Combining Expert Opinions; Review of the Literature	p. 171
Conclusion	p. 186
The Classical Model	p. 187
The Bayesian Model	p. 199
Psychological Scaling Models: Paired Comparisons	p. 211
Applications	p. 221
Conclusions	p. 268
Mathematical Framework and Interpretation	p. 273
Tables	p. 285
References	p. 299
Author Index	p. 315
Subject Index	p. 319
Table of Contents provided by Publisher. All Rights Reserved.