Explaining Labour's Landslide

by Worcester, Robert M.; Mortimore, Roger

• ISBN13: 9781902301358
• ISBN10: 1902301358
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-07-01
• Publisher: Politicos Pub

Table of Contents

List of tables	ix
List of figures and graphs	xi
Foreword	xiii
Robert M Worcester
Introduction	1	(6)
Why the Tories lost the 1997 British General Election	4	(3)
Opinion Polls -- Why and How We Do What We Do	7	(34)
Taking the Temperature of the Electorate	7	(3)
Private Polling	10	(6)
What is public opinion and how can we hope to measure it?	16	(4)
Public Opinion in a Democratic Society	20	(5)
Polling in Britain	25	(4)
The Art of Asking Questions	29	(1)
The Science of Sampling	30	(4)
Special problems raised by election polling	34	(3)
How do we do it?	37	(4)
Strategy: The Long Campaign 9 April 1992--16 March 1997	41	(60)
Measuring why do voters vote as they do	41	(1)
The techniques of private polling: looking backward	41	(2)
The Political Triangle	43	(3)
Issues	46	(4)
Leader Image	50	(1)
Party Image	51	(2)
How the election was lost before 1997: Four predictions (or even five)	53	(9)
The loss of the economic talisman	62	(5)
Divisions over Europe	67	(4)
The swamp of sleaze	71	(12)
Leadership	83	(5)
New Labour, No Danger	88	(7)
Other strategic factors	95	(3)
Conclusion: How they stood by the start of 1997	98	(3)
Tactics: the short campaign, 16 March--1 May 1997	101	(22)
Issues and agenda setting	105	(12)
Campaigning effectiveness: getting the message across	117	(2)
Tony's Army	119	(1)
Trying to buy success: the advertising war	120	(3)
What did the voters think affected or would affect their vote?	123	(14)
Campaigning methods	123	(2)
Media coverage	125	(2)
The Political Triangle and Important Issues	127	(7)
Tactical Voting	134	(3)
The `Outside Influences'	137	(92)
The public and the media coverage	137	(1)
Press coverage of the 1997 General Election	138	(1)
Content	138	(2)
Newspaper positioning and bias	140	(2)
Perceived bias in the Broadcast Media	142	(2)
Bias can swing voters	144	(7)
The Polls	151	(1)
The conduct and performance of the Polls in 1997	151	(3)
The historic record of the opinion polls	154	(5)
What went wrong in 1992? The media pundits have their say	159	(3)
What was the solution in 1997?	162	(1)
Achieving representative samples	162	(5)
Data sources for weighting and quotas	167	(1)
Avoiding misleading answers	168	(4)
`Adjusted polls'	172	(2)
What did MORI change and why? The details	174	(5)
Do opinion polls affect voting behaviour?	179	(4)
The Stock Exchange and the polls	183	(2)
Constituency polls	185	(1)
Media (Mis)Reporting of Opinion Polls	185	(6)
Media disbelief of the polls: the Aftermath of 1992	191	(11)
`Voodoo polls'	202	(9)
Misuse of focus groups	211	(1)
`Leaked' private polls	212	(2)
The Pundits	214	(15)
How many and who actually swung during the campaign?	229	(10)
The shift of votes week by week	229	(8)
Who won the campaign: conclusion	237	(2)
The result: who did what?	239	(8)
Who didn't vote?	239	(2)
The `Gender Gap'	241	(6)
Aftermath	247	(8)
The Outcome of the Election	247	(1)
Looking Forward	247	(8)
Index	255