The Fat Tail The Power of Political Knowledge in an Uncertain World (with a New Preface)

by Bremmer, Ian; Keat, Preston

• ISBN13: 9780199737277
• ISBN10: 0199737274
• Edition: Reprint
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2010-05-13
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

Featuring a new preface that addresses the fallout from the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show how to manage them effectively. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Applying the lessons of world history, Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risk scenarios, from stable markets like the United States, where politically driven regulation can dramatically affect business, to more precarious places like Iran, Russia, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book covers a wide array of political risks-great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeovers, internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. Featuring a wealth of unique tools and concepts to help corporations and policy makers understand political risk, The Fat Tail shows when and how political risk analysis works-and when it does not. Book jacket.

Author Biography

Ian Bremmer is the President of Eurasia Group and author of The J Curve: A New Way to Understand Why Nations Rise and Fall. He is a contributing editor for Foreign Policy and The National Interest.

Preston Keat is Director of Research at Eurasia Group. He presently teaches at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.

Table of Contents

Preface to the Paperback Edition	p. vii
Acknowledgments	p. xiii
Introduction	p. 1
Dealing with Uncertainty	p. 15
Geopolitics	p. 37
Political Risk and Capital Markets	p. 61
Domestic Instability-Revolution, Civil War, State Failure	p. 83
Terrorism	p. 105
Expropriation	p. 123
Regulatory Risk	p. 143
Reporting and Warning	p. 163
Conclusion	p. 187
Notes	p. 199
Index	p. 241
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