Faultlines Conflict Central Asia & the South Caucasus

by Unknown

• ISBN13: 9780833032607
• ISBN10: 0833032607
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-03-18
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Table of Contents

Preface	vii
Figures	xv
Tables	xvii
Summary	xix
Acknowledgments	xxvii
Introduction	1	(6)
Thomas S. Szayna
Olga Oliker
The Context	1	(2)
Objectives, Approach, and Organization	3	(4)
The Political Evolution of Central Asia and South Caucasus: Implications for Regional Security	7	(34)
Tanya Charlick-Paley
Phil Williams
Olga Oliker
Introduction	7	(2)
Political Institutionalization, Deprivation, and State and Societal Capacity: A Framework for Risk Analysis	9	(6)
Institutionalization in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Rating the Risk of Internal Conflict	15	(6)
The Role of Islam	21	(7)
Political Landscape: Conclusions	28	(1)
Proximate Causes of Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus	29	(2)
The Ferghana Valley and Cross-Border Incursions	31	(3)
Nagorno-Karabakh	34	(2)
Georgian Separatists and Russia	36	(3)
Conclusions	39	(2)
Some Economic Dimensions of Security in Central Asia and South Caucasus	41	(30)
Abraham S. Becker
Introduction	41	(6)
Regional Overview	47	(16)
Poverty	47	(6)
Dependence	53	(10)
Prospects	63	(8)
Criminalization and Stability in Central Asia and South Caucasus	71	(38)
Phil Williams
Introduction	71	(2)
Characteristics of Central Asia and South Caucasus	73	(4)
The Criminalization Syndrome	77	(17)
Organized Crime	78	(5)
Drug Trafficking	83	(5)
The Shadow Economy	88	(2)
Corruption and Rent Seeking	90	(3)
Costs and Benefits of Criminalization	93	(1)
Governance and Criminalization in Central Asia and South Caucasus	94	(5)
Sultanistic Regimes	95	(2)
Contested States	97	(2)
Governance, Criminalization, and Instability in Central Asia and South Caucasus	99	(8)
The Collapse of Sultanistic Regimes	99	(6)
The Escalation or Resurgence of Violence in Contested States	105	(2)
Conclusions	107	(2)
Natural Resources and Potential Conflict in the Caspian Sea Region	109	(36)
Sergej Mahnovski
Introduction	109	(1)
Fossil Fuel Production in the Caspian Sea Region	110	(2)
Crude Oil	110	(2)
Natural Gas	112	(3)
Fossil Fuel Transport to Markets	115	(1)
Crude Oil	115	(5)
Current Transport Options	115	(1)
Medium Term (until 2005)	116	(3)
Longer Term (2005-2010)	119	(1)
Natural Gas	120	(7)
Western Markets	122	(1)
Eastern Markets	123	(2)
Other Options for Natural Gas?	125	(2)
Energy Relationships in the Caspian Sea Region	127	(4)
Interstate Dynamics	127	(3)
Intrastate Dynamics	130	(1)
The Role of Water and Electricity in Central Asia	131	(3)
Can Natural Resources Contribute to Armed Conflict?	134	(2)
Resources as Target of Conflict: Infrastructure Sabotage	134	(2)
Resources as Cause of Conflict: Competition over Distribution of Wealth	136	(2)
Some Potential Mitigating Factors to Conflict	138	(5)
Caspian Sea Territorial Disputes	138	(2)
Petroleum Funds	140	(1)
Water Management Strategies	141	(2)
Conclusions	143	(2)
Potential for Ethnic Conflict in the Caspian Region	145	(40)
Thomas S. Szayna
Introduction	145	(2)
The Ethnic Factor in the CASC States	147	(14)
Preconditions for Ethnic Conflict	161	(5)
Kazakhstan: An Example of a Nationalizing State	166	(7)
Catalysts to Ethnic Violence	173	(3)
Potential for Ethnic Violence in the CASC Region	176	(5)
Central Asia	176	(3)
South Caucasus	179	(2)
Final Observations	181	(4)
Conflict in Central Asia and South Caucasus: Implications of Foreign Interests and Involvement	185	(56)
Olga Oliker
Introduction	185	(4)
Russia	189	(10)
Turkey	199	(7)
The European Union and Its Member States	206	(2)
Iran	208	(5)
China	213	(4)
Afghanistan	217	(3)
The United States	220	(5)
India and Pakistan	225	(1)
Great Power Competition and Great Power Conflict	226	(2)
The Local Perspective	228	(11)
Conclusions	239	(2)
Central Asia and South Caucasus as an Area of Operations: Challenges and Constraints	241	(66)
William D. O'Malley
Introduction	241	(2)
Deployment	243	(6)
Deployment by Air	249	(9)
By Sea	258	(2)
Infrastructure: Transiting the Central Asia and South Caucasus Region	260	(1)
Rail	261	(1)
Road	262	(1)
Water	262	(1)
Air: Possible Staging Locations for U.S. Forces Operating Within or Outside The Region	263	(6)
Intermediate Support Base Possibilities	269	(3)
Operational Environment	272	(4)
South Caucasus	276	(5)
Armenia	276	(1)
Azerbaijan	277	(2)
Georgia	279	(2)
Central Asia	281	(9)
Kazakhstan	281	(2)
Kyrgyzstan	283	(3)
Tajikistan	286	(1)
Turkmenistan	287	(1)
Uzbekistan	288	(2)
Operational Environment: Implications	290	(2)
Local Military Capabilities: Capacity and Interoperability Directions of Military Reform in Central Asia and South Caucasus	292	(4)
Implications for U.S. Forces: Interoperability and Requirements	296	(3)
Conclusions	299	(8)
Sources of Conflict and Paths to U.S. Involvement	307	(52)
Olga Oliker
Thomas S. Szayna
Central Asia	311	(27)
Kazakhstan	311	(4)
Kyrgyzstan	315	(5)
Tajikistan	320	(5)
Turkmenistan	325	(5)
Uzbekistan	330	(6)
Trans-Central Asian Conflict	336	(2)
South Caucasus	338	(21)
Armenia	338	(2)
Azerbaijan	340	(5)
Georgia	345	(4)
Trans-Caucasus Conflict	349	(1)
Trans-Caspian Conflict	350	(2)
Paths to Conflict and U.S. Involvement	352	(1)
Conflict Likelihood, Conflict Severity, and Potential for Army Deployment	352	(7)
Bibliography	359