Preface | |
Acknowledgments | |
Introduction Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants | |
Foundations | |
The Big Picture | |
The Flaw of Averages | |
The Fall of the Algebraic Curtain and Rise of the Flaw of Averages | |
Mitigating the Flaw of Averages | |
The Wright Brothers Versus the Wrong Brothers | |
The Most Important Instrument in the Cockpit | |
Five Basic MINDles for Uncertainty | |
MINDles Are to MINDs What HANDles Are to HANDs | |
Mindle 1: Uncertainty Versus Risk | |
Mindle 2: An Uncertain Number Is a Shape | |
Mindle 3: Combinations of Uncertain Numbers | |
I Come to Bury SIGMA, Not to Praise it | |
Mindle 4: Terri Dial and the Drunk in the Road | |
Who Was Jensen and Why Wasn't He Equal? | |
Mindle 5: Interrelated Uncertainties | |
Decisions and Information | |
Decision Trees | |
The Value of Information | |
The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging | |
The Seven Deadly Sins of Averaging | |
The Flaw of Extremes | |
Simpson's Paradox | |
The Scholtes Revenue Fallacy | |
Taking Credit for Chance Occurrences | |
Applications | |
The Flaw of Averages in Finance | |
Your Retirement Portfolio | |
The Birth of Portfolio Theory: The Age of Covariance | |
When Harry Met Bill(y) | |
Mindles for the Financial Planning Client | |
Options: Profiting from Uncertainty | |
When Fischer and Myron Met Bob: Option Theory | |
Prices, Probabilities, and Predictions | |
Real Finance | |
Holistic Versus Hole-istic | |
Real Portfolios at Shell | |
Real Options | |
Some Gratuitous Inflammatory Remarks on the Accounting Industry | |
The Flaw of Averages in Supply Chains | |
The DNA of Supply Chains | |
A Supply Chain of DNA | |
Cawlfield's Principle | |
The Flaw of Averages and Some Hot Button Issues | |
The Statistical Research Group of World War II | |
Probability and the War on Terror | |
The Flaw of Averages and Climate Change | |
The Flaw of Averages in Health Care | |
Sex and the Central Limit Theorem | |
Probability Management | |
Toward a Cure for the Flaw of Averages | |
The End of Statistics as You Were Taught It | |
Visualization | |
Interactive Simulation: A New Lightbulb | |
Scenario Libraries: The Power Grid | |
The Fundamental Identity of SLURP Algebra | |
Putting It into Practice | |
The CPO: Managing Probability Management | |
A Posthumous Visit by My Father | |
Red Word Glossary | |
Notes | |
About the Author | |
Index | |
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