Forecasting with Judgment

by Wright, George; Goodwin, Paul

• ISBN13: 9780471970149
• ISBN10: 047197014X
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1998-04-22
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

This book provides research on the human element in forecasting. It focuses on how we can improve our ability to accurately forecast.

Author Biography

George Wright has held Faculty positions at LBS and Leeds Business School and is currently at Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, where he consults to major blue-chip clients such as Philips and IBM. He has conducted extensive research into the role of judgement in forecasting and decision making, with particular emphasis on the simplification strategies of managers which lead to poor decisions. He has published both academic and trade books on forecasting and decision making, and contributed to various journals within the field. He founded the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making with Wiley in 1988 and is Associate Editor of the Wiley Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting.

Paul Goodwin, PhD, is Professor Emeritus at University of Bath, Bath, UK, where he teaches courses on Management Science, business forecasting, and decision analysis. He regularly conducts workshops at forecasting events around the world. A Fellow of the International Institute of Forecasters, he is a well-known keynote speaker at SAS.

Table of Contents

Contributors	vii	(2)
Preface	ix
Chapter 1 Judgment: Its Role and Value for Strategy	1	(38)
Spyros Makridakis
Anil Gaba
Chapter 2 Scenario Planning: Scaffolding Disorganized Ideas about the Future	39	(26)
Kees van der Heijden
Chapter 3 Judgmental Forecasting and the Use of Available Information	65	(26)
Marcus O'Connor
Michael Lawrence
Chapter 4 Enhancing Judgmental Sales Forecasting: The Role of Laboratory Research	91	(22)
Paul Goodwin
Chapter 5 Heuristics and Biases in Judgmental Forecasting	113	(26)
Fergus Bolger
Nigel Harvey
Chapter 6 Financial Forecasting with Judgment	139	(30)
Dilek Onkal-Atay
Chapter 7 Reasoning with Category Knowledge in Probability Forecasting: Typicality and Perceived Variability Effects	169	(32)
Glenn J. Browne
Shawn P. Curley
Chapter 8 The Use of Structured Groups to Improve Judgmental Forecasting	201	(36)
Gene Rowe
Chapter 9 How Bad Is Human Judgment?	237	(32)
Peter Ayton
Chapter 10 Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research	269	(26)
J. Scott Armstrong
Fred Collopy
Index	295