Forecasting and Management of Technology

by Porter, Alan L.; Cunningham, Scott W.; Banks, Jerry; Roper, A. Thomas; Mason, Thomas W.; Rossini, Frederick A.

• ISBN13: 9780470440902
• ISBN10: 0470440902
• Edition: 2nd
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-07-12
• Publisher: Wiley

Summary

Published in 1991, the first edition of Forecasting and Management of Technology was one of the leading handful of books to deal with the topic of forecasting of technology and technology management as this discipline was emerging. The new, revised edition of this book will build on this knowledge in the context of business organizations that now place a greater emphasis on technology to stay on the cutting edge of development. The scope of this edition has broadened to include management of technology content that is relevant to now to executives in organizations while updating and strengthening the technology forecasting and analysis content that the first edition is reputed for.Updated by the original author team, plus new author Scott Cunningham, the book takes into account what the authors see as the innovations to technology management in the last 17 years: the Internet; the greater focus on group decision-making including process management and mechanism design; and desktop software that has transformed the analytical capabilities of technology managers. Included in this book will be 5 case studies from various industries that show how technology management is applied in the real world.

Author Biography

Alan Thomas Roper (retired) was a professor at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology in Terre Haute, Indiana. He is the past editor of the journal Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal and the past director of the Center for Technology and Policy Studies at Rose-Hulman. Scott W. Cunningham obtained a MSc in public policy from the Georgia Institute of Technology and a DPhil in science, technology, and innovation policy from the University of Sussex. He is currently Assistant Professor of Policy Analysis in the Department of Technology, Policy, and Management at Delft University of Technology. Alan L. Porter has led development of technology opportunity analysis and mining electronic, bibliographic data: sources to generate intelligence on emerging technologies. He holds an MA in psychology and a PhD in engineering psychology, both from UCLA. He is currently Director of Research and Development for Search Technology, Inc., in Norcross, Georgia. Thomas W. Mason was the founding head of the Engineering Management Department (www.rose-hulman.edu/.msem). While on a three-year leave from Rose-Hulman, he served as CFO and GEO of a 140-person network management systems business. Frederick A. Rossini (retired) is a former provost at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. Jerry Banks is Professor Emeritus, Department of industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, Georgia.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	p. xv
Introduction	p. 1
About This Book	p. 1
Technology and Society	p. 2
Social Change	p. 3
Technological Change	p. 4
Management and the Future	p. 6
Management and Innovation Processes	p. 7
The Role of Technology Forecasting	p. 9
The Importance of Technology Forecasting	p. 10
The Role of Social Forecasting	p. 12
Conclusions	p. 13
References	p. 13
Technology Forecasting	p. 15
What Is Technology Forecasting?	p. 15
Models of Technology Growth and Diffusion	p. 17
Technology Forecasting in Context	p. 18
What Makes a Forecast Good?	p. 20
Common Errors in Forecasting Technology	p. 21
Methodological Foundations	p. 23
The Technology Delivery System	p. 24
Inquiring Systems	p. 28
Technology Forecasting Methods	p. 31
Overview of the Most Frequently Used Forecasting Methods	p. 33
Method Selection	p. 37
Conclusion	p. 37
References	p. 38
Managing the Forecasting Project	p. 40
Information Needs of the Forecasting Project	p. 40
The Technology Manager's Needs	p. 42
The Forecast Manager's Needs	p. 43
Information about Team Members	p. 44
Planning the Technology Forecast	p. 46
Team Organization, Management, and Communications	p. 47
Organizing and Managing the Technology Forecast	p. 50
Communications	p. 54
Summary Conclusions about Project Management and Organization	p. 55
Success: The Right Information at the Right Time	p. 56
Project Scheduling	p. 57
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)	p. 58
Gantt Chart	p. 60
Project Accountability Chart (PAC)	p. 60
Project Scheduling Software	p. 61
Conclusions	p. 62
References	p. 62
Exploring	p. 65
Establishing the Context-the TDS	p. 65
Societal and Institutional Contexts	p. 66
Technology Context	p. 67
Stakeholders	p. 68
Understanding the TDS	p. 69
An Example TDS Model	p. 70
Monitoring	p. 72
Why Monitor?	p. 74
Who Should Monitor?	p. 75
Monitoring Strategy	p. 76
Monitoring Focused on Management of Technology Issues	p. 79
Monitoring Focused on the Stage of the Technology Development	p. 81
The Stimulation of Creativity	p. 81
Five Elements of Creativity	p. 81
Group Creativity	p. 92
Conclusion	p. 95
References	p. 95
Gathering and Using Information	p. 98
Expert Opinion	p. 99
Selecting Experts	p. 99
Selecting Expert Opinion Techniques	p. 100
Gathering Information on the Internet	p. 105
Science and Technology on the Internet	p. 106
Society and Culture on the Internet	p. 109
Structuring the Search	p. 113
Preparing Search Results	p. 116
Using Search Results	p. 117
Developing Science, Technology, and Social Indicators	p. 119
Science and Technology Indicators	p. 119
Social Indicators	p. 122
Communicating Search Results	p. 122
Conclusions	p. 123
References	p. 124
Analyzing Phase	p. 129
Perspective on Data and Methods	p. 129
Overview and Caveats	p. 130
Internet Time Series Data and Trends	p. 132
Analytical Modeling	p. 133
Linear Regression and Extensions	p. 134
Growth Models	p. 138
The Models	p. 138
Dealing with the Data	p. 143
Regression and Growth Modeling: What Can Go Wrong?	p. 144
Simulation	p. 145
Quantitative Cross-Impact Analysis	p. 146
Qualitative Cross-Impact Analysis	p. 152
Monte Carlo Simulation	p. 153
Generating and Displaying Random Values	p. 153
Sampling Multiple Random Variables	p. 154
RFID Application in a Hospital Decision	p. 156
System Dynamics	p. 158
The System Dynamics Modeling Cycle	p. 159
A Technology Forecasting Example: The Cable-to-the-Curb Model	p. 162
Gaming	p. 164
Decision Trees	p. 165
Bayesian Estimation	p. 166
Value of Information	p. 167
Real Options Analysis	p. 169
Software Suggestions	p. 170
Software for Regression	p. 170
Simulation Analysis Software	p. 170
Software for Analysis of Decisions	p. 170
Real Options Super Lattice Software	p. 170
Software Sites	p. 171
References	p. 171
Focusing Phase: Using Scenario Analysis	p. 174
Uncertainty	p. 175
Uncertainty Frameworks	p. 175
Source and Nature of Uncertainty	p. 176
Uncertainty and the Adaptive Paradigm	p. 177
Techniques for Addressing Uncertainty	p. 177
Scenarios	p. 178
Steps in Creating Scenarios	p. 178
Types of Scenarios	p. 182
Examples and Applications	p. 184
Scenarios for Renewable Energy Planning	p. 184
Pervasive Computing Scenarios	p. 185
Scenarios for Social Change	p. 186
Scenarios: Extensions and Advanced Techniques	p. 187
Scenarios in Multimethodology Forecasts	p. 187
Extensions of Scenario Analysis	p. 189
Conclusions	p. 191
References	p. 192
Economic and Market Analysis	p. 194
The Context	p. 194
Markets and Innovation	p. 197
Technology and Institutions	p. 199
Forecasting the Market	p. 203
The Consumer/Customer Marketplace	p. 204
Qualitative Techniques for Appraising Market Potential	p. 206
A Quantitative Approach-Adoption and Substitution: S-Curve Models	p. 207
Forecasting the Economic Context	p. 208
Macroeconomic Forecasting	p. 209
Input-Output Analysis	p. 210
General Equilibrium Models	p. 214
Hedonic Technometrics	p. 215
Forecasting in an Institutional Context	p. 216
Institutional Arrangements and the Market	p. 216
Game Theory	p. 218
Agent-Based Models	p. 219
Conclusion	p. 219
References	p. 220
Impact Assessment	p. 223
Impact Assessment in Technology Forecasting	p. 223
Impacts on Technology and Impacts of Technology	p. 224
A Comprehensive Approach to Impact Assessment	p. 225
Impact Identification	p. 226
Scanning Techniques	p. 226
Tracing Techniques	p. 227
Narrowing the Impact Set and Estimating Effects	p. 229
A Final Word	p. 229
Impact Analysis	p. 230
Analyzing Impacts on and Impacts of the Technology	p. 230
Analyzing Technological Impacts	p. 232
Analyzing Economic Impacts	p. 234
Analyzing Environmental Impacts	p. 234
Analyzing Social Impacts	p. 238
Analyzing Institutional Impacts	p. 239
Analyzing Political Impacts	p. 240
Analyzing Legal and Regulatory Impacts	p. 241
Analyzing Behavioral, Cultural, and Values Impacts	p. 242
Analyzing Health-Related Impacts	p. 243
Impact Evaluation	p. 244
Conclusion	p. 245
References	p. 245
Cost-Benefit and Risk Analysis	p. 248
Opportunity Costs and Choices	p. 248
Cost-Benefit Analysis	p. 249
Cost-Benefit Analysis within the Organization	p. 249
Societal Stake and the Organizational Response	p. 253
Cost-Benefit Analysis Methods	p. 260
Economic Value Added	p. 263
Earned Value Management	p. 264
The Balanced Scorecard	p. 265
Accounting for Risk and Uncertainty	p. 265
Accounting for Risk within Organizations	p. 265
Accounting for Risk-the Social Dimension	p. 269
Concluding the Focusing Phase	p. 273
References	p. 274
Implementing the Technology	p. 277
Forecasting Continues	p. 277
Implementation Issues	p. 278
Strategic Planning for Technology Implementation	p. 278
Selecting from among Alternative Implementations of the Technology	p. 279
Measurement	p. 282
Interpretive Structural Modeling	p. 284
Analytic Hierarchy Process	p. 285
Wrap-Up	p. 286
Technology Roadmapping	p. 286
Summary and Concluding Observations	p. 287
References	p. 287
Managing the Present from the Future	p. 289
The Overall Approach	p. 289
Selecting Methods and Techniques	p. 290
Using the TDS and the Major Families of Techniques	p. 290
The 80-20 Rule	p. 291
Alternative Perspectives	p. 291
Learning from Past Forecasts and Assessments	p. 293
Visions	p. 295
A Final Word	p. 295
References	p. 296
Case Study on Forecasting Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells	p. 297
Framing the Case Study	p. 297
Characterizing the Technology	p. 298
Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells	p. 299
Methods	p. 299
Engaging Experts and Multipath Mapping	p. 299
Developing the TDS	p. 300
Tech Mining (Chapter 5) and Science Overlay Mapping	p. 304
Trend Analyses	p. 310
Cross-charting and Social Network Analyses	p. 311
The Rest of the Story	p. 313
Market Forecasts	p. 314
Scenarios	p. 315
Technology Assessment	p. 315
Further Analyses and Communicating Results	p. 316
References	p. 316
Index	p. 319
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