Foresight in Action

by Van Asselt, Marjolein B. A.; van't Klooster, Susan A.; van Notten, Philip W. F.; Smits, Livia A.

• ISBN13: 9781844076772
• ISBN10: 1844076776
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2010-11-30
• Publisher: Routledge

Summary

Assessing the future is vital in informing public policy decisions. One of the most widespread approaches is the development of scenarios, which are alternative hypothetical futures. Research has indicated, however, that the reality of how professionals go about employing scenarios is often starkly at odds with the theory - a finding that has important ramifications for how the resulting images of the future should be interpreted. It also shows the need for rewriting and updating theory. This book, based on an intensive five year study of how experts actually go about assessing the future, provides a groundbreaking examination of foresighting in action. Obtained via ethnographic techniques, the results lay bare for the first time the real processes by which scenarios are made. It is also the first book to examine foresighting for public policy, which is so often overlooked in favour of business practice. From handling of discontinuity to historical determinism, the analysis reveals and explains why foresight is difficult and what major pitfalls are. Each chapter ends with a toolkit of recommendations for practice. The book aims to help readers to reflect on their own practices of public-oriented foresight and thus to foster a deeper understanding of the key principles and challenges. Ultimately, this will lead to better informed decision making.

Author Biography

Marjolein B.A. van Asselt is Risk Governance chair, Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences, Maastricht University, and member of the Scientific Council for Government Policy (WRR), The Hague. Susan A. van't Klooster is a researcher at the Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), VU University in Amsterdam. Philip W.F. van Notten currently works as a senior civil servant. Livia A. Smits works at the Foundation for the History of Technology, based at Eindhoven University of Technology.

Table of Contents

List of Figures, Tables and Boxes	p. ix
Acknowledgements	p. xi
List of Acronyms and Abbreviations	p. xiii
Researching Policy-Oriented Foresight in Action	p. 1
Aims	p. 2
Introduction to foresight	p. 3
Dutch foresight	p. 8
Research questions	p. 11
Research approach	p. 12
Audience	p. 17
Structure of the book	p. 19
First Impressions of Foresight Practice	p. 23
Forecasting and foresight	p. 23
Preparing the journey	p. 25
Conclusions	p. 38
Dealing with Policy	p. 41
Introduction	p. 41
Policy-free scenarios	p. 41
Policy-free and policy-oriented foresight	p. 43
The no (significant) policy change principle	p. 47
Struggling with policy	p. 50
Policy at the framing level	p. 57
Conclusions	p. 58
Practising the Scenario Matrix	p. 61
Attending to the scenario matrix	p. 61
Textbook descriptions: The backbone functional meaning	p. 62
Getting started: Backbone and foundation	p. 65
Analysing multiple representations	p. 67
Multiplicity continues to reign: The scaffold functional meaning	p. 70
More functional meanings: The showcase	p. 73
Conclusions	p. 74
Dealing with Prospective Uncertainty	p. 79
Prospective uncertainty	p. 79
Uncertainty awareness	p. 80
Uncertainty manners	p. 82
The danger of 'certainification'	p. 97
Conclusions	p. 100
The Past, the Present and the Future	p. 105
Introduction	p. 105
Meantime	p. 106
Temporal repertoires	p. 106
A case in time	p. 108
Discontinuity in foresight	p. 119
Conclusions	p. 133
Reflection on Action	p. 137
Summary of findings	p. 137
Discussion	p. 140
From reflection on action to reflection in action	p. 142
Lessons for policy audiences	p. 144
References	p. 147
Appendix	p. 163
Index	p. 167
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