The Future of Electricity Demand

by Jamasb, Tooraj; Pollitt, Michael G.

• ISBN13: 9781107008502
• ISBN10: 1107008506
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2011-10-30
• Publisher: Cambridge Univ Pr

Summary

What will electricity and heat demand look like in a low-carbon world? Ambitious environmental targets will modify the shape of the electricity sector in the twenty-first century. 'Smart' technologies and demand-side management will be some of the key features of the future of electricity systems in a low-carbon world. Meanwhile, the social and behavioural dimensions will complement and interact with new technologies and policies. Electricity demand in the future will increasingly be tied up with the demand for heat and for transport. The Future of Electricity Demand looks into the features of the future electricity demand in light of the challenges posed by climate change. Written by a team of leading academics and industry experts, the book investigates the economics, technology, social aspects, and policies and regulations which are likely to characterize energy demand in a low-carbon world. It provides a comprehensive and analytical perspective on the future of electricity demand.

Table of Contents

List of figures	p. xii
List of tables	p. xvii
List of boxes	p. xix
List of contributors	p. xxi
Foreword	p. xxv
Preface	p. xxvii
Acknowledgements	p. xxviii
Introduction and overview of the chapters	p. 1
Opening remarks	p. 1
Structure of the book	p. 2
Overview of the main chapters	p. 4
The economics	p. 4
Technology	p. 6
Social dimensions	p. 8
Policy and regulation	p. 10
Conclusions	p. 13
References	p. 14
The economics
The economics of energy (and electricity) demand	p. 17
Introduction	p. 17
The long-run macroeconomic context of energy demand	p. 19
The long-run microeconomic context of energy demand	p. 29
Conclusions on the economics of electricity demand	p. 43
References	p. 45
Energy scenarios and implications for future electricity demand	p. 48
Introduction	p. 48
Overview	p. 49
Scenarios	p. 52
Big transmission and distribution ('switch me on')	p. 55
Energy services companies ('fix it for me')	p. 61
Distribution system operators (government-led green agenda)	p. 67
Microgrids (dynamic green markets)	p. 74
Discussion with respect to future electricity demand	p. 80
Implications and conclusion	p. 84
References	p. 86
Demand-side participation: price constraints, technical limits and behavioural risks	p. 88
Introduction	p. 88
The constraints to demand-side participation	p. 90
Overview of European experiences on demand-side participation	p. 94
Description of the social aspects of flexibility in demand response, particularly issues of psychological motivation and social acceptance	p. 97
Incentivizing demand-side participation through incentive/payment schemes for the end-user	p. 98
Conclusions	p. 102
References	p. 103
Review of recent developments in economic modelling of energy demand	p. 106
Introduction	p. 106
Input substitution	p. 107
Energy efficiency	p. 116
Change in industrial structure	p. 118
Technological change	p. 119
Conclusions	p. 121
References	p. 122
Technology
Demand-side management and control in buildings	p. 129
Introduction	p. 129
Drivers for DSM and control within buildings	p. 129
DSM	p. 133
Micro-level demand-side management and control (DSM+c)	p. 136
Strategic- and operational-level DSM+c algorithms implementation	p. 148
Future uptake	p. 157
References	p. 158
Smart metering: technology, economics and international experience	p. 161
Introduction	p. 161
Context for smart metering	p. 162
Economic assessment of smart metering	p. 169
Lessons from international experience	p. 175
Conclusions	p. 180
References	p. 181
Smart domestic appliances as enabling technology for demand-side integration: modelling, value and drivers	p. 185
Introduction	p. 185
Role of smart appliances	p. 186
Consumer acceptance	p. 190
Framework to quantify the value of smart appliances as a source of flexibility	p. 193
Quantification of the value of smart appliances	p. 197
Conclusion	p. 210
References	p. 210
The scope for and potential impacts of the adoption of electric vehicles in UK surface transport	p. 212
Transport and energy in the. UK	p. 212
Technological prospects	p. 215
Consumer preferences and adoption rates	p. 218
Impacts on the demand for electricity	p. 221
Other supporting policies	p. 223
Conclusions	p. 224
References	p. 225
Social dimensions
From citizen to consumer: energy policy and public attitudes in the UK	p. 231
Introduction	p. 231
Public attitudes, behaviour and energy policy	p. 232
EPRG survey design and implementation	p. 236
Survey results	p. 239
Conclusions	p. 246
References	p. 247
The local dimension of energy	p. 249
Introduction	p. 249
Denning local energy	p. 251
The context for local energy solutions	p. 254
Reconciling local government strategy with local energy solutions	p. 256
Lessons learned from the localization of energy generation in Europe	p. 260
Local dimensions of energy demand in the UK	p. 264
Conclusion	p. 275
References	p. 275
Centralization, decentralization and the scales in between: what role might they play in the UK energy system?	p. 280
Introduction	p. 280
What is ædecentralized energy'?	p. 281
Scale and the current energy system	p. 283
Drivers for changes in scale	p. 284
Conclusions	p. 293
References	p. 295
Equity, fuel poverty and demand (maintaining affordability with sustainability and security of supply)	p. 298
Introduction	p. 298
The citizen and consumer in energy markets	p. 298
Fuel poverty in the UK	p. 305
Public response and policies for reducing fuel poverty	p. 309
Fuel poverty and policies in other countries	p. 311
Concluding remarks	p. 314
References	p. 315
Energy spending and vulnerable households	p. 318
Introduction	p. 318
Background and past studies	p. 319
Types of vulnerable households	p. 321
Data	p. 323
Vulnerable households and energy spending	p. 324
Drivers of fuel poverty	p. 328
Discussion and conclusions	p. 331
References	p. 332
Policy and regulation
Demand-side management strategies and the residential sector: lessons from the international experience	p. 337
Introduction	p. 337
The residential energy demand: key features	p. 339
Barriers to energy efficiency in the residential sector	p. 344
Demand-side management policies	p. 347
Policy packages and the importance of comprehensiveness	p. 367
Conclusion	p. 372
References	p. 374
Electricity distribution networks: investment and regulation, and uncertain demand	p. 379
Introduction	p. 37?
Distribution networks and their operating environment	p. 380
Regulation of active network and demand	p. 383
Demand for distribution services and drivers of investment	p. 385
Model description	p. 387
Relevance of the model for active network and demand and concluding remarks	p. 398
References	p. 399
The potential impact of policy and legislation on the energy demands of UK buildings and implications for the electrical network	p. 401
Introduction	p. 401
EU policy, legislation and standards relating to energy performance of buildings	p. 401
UK policy, legislation and standards relating to energy performance of buildings	p. 404
The probable buildings of the future?	p. 407
Other factors influencing the probable buildings of the future	p. 413
Impact of probable future buildings on energy demand and supply choices	p. 417
Discussion	p. 419
Conclusions	p. 421
References	p. 421
The ADDRESS European Project: a large-scale R&D initiative for the development of active demand	p. 423
Introduction	p. 423
The ADDRESS architecture	p. 425
Needs and expectations of power system participants with respect to active demand	p. 427
Active demand services and products	p. 428
The need for aggregation	p. 431
The value of active demand and its markets	p. 432
Active demand process architecture	p. 434
A simple example of market clearing process	p. 438
The potential benefits and acceptance of active demand	p. 441
Conclusion	p. 443
Acknowledgement	p. 443
References	p. 443
Daylight saving, electricity demand and emissions: the British case	p. 445
Introduction	p. 445
Background	p. 445
Evidence and policy	p. 446
US and UK clock time policy	p. 450
Activity patterns of the UK population	p. 451
Analyzing the potential for winter daylight saving	p. 453
Peak demand and cost effects	p. 456
The impact of advancing the clock by an hour all year	p. 457
Scottish and European Union issues	p. 457
Implications and conclusions	p. 459
References	p. 460
Concluding reflections on future active networks and the demand-side for electricity	p. 464
Introduction	p. 464
Technology and R&D	p. 465
Utilities, consumers and communities	p. 466
Economics and policy	p. 457
Society and political economy	p. 468
References	p. 468
Index	p. 469
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