The Future of the Telecommunications Industry

by Loomis, David G.; Taylor, Lester D.

• ISBN13: 9780792386674
• ISBN10: 0792386671
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-11-01
• Publisher: Kluwer Academic Pub

Summary

The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks. The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.

Table of Contents

List of Contributors	xi
Acknowledgements	xv
Introduction	1	(4)
David G. Loomis
Part I DEMAND FOR NEW PRODUCTS AND TRENDS IN DEMAND ANALYSIS	5	(120)
Telecommunications Demand Analysis in Transition: An Overview of Part I	7	(14)
Lester D. Taylor
An Econometric Study of the Demand for Access to the Internet	21	(22)
Donald J. Kridel
Paul N. Rappoport
Lester D. Taylor
Demand for and Use of Additional Lines by Residential Customers	43	(18)
Carol A. Cassel
The Changing Market for Inland and International Calls	61	(22)
David Cracknell
Demand Modeling At Bell Canada: A Retrospective	83	(14)
Chris Dineen
Mohammed Abrar
Effects of Large Price Reductions on Toll and Carrier Access Demand in California	97	(18)
Timothy J. Tardiff
Semi-Parametric Estimates of Intra-Lata Demand Elasticities	115	(10)
Armando Levy
Part II FORECASTING NEW PRODUCTS AND THE IMPACT OF COMPETITION	125	(140)
Forecasting New Products and the Impact of Competition: An Overview of Part II	127	(10)
David G. Loomis
Forecasting New Telecommunication Services At A ``Pre-Development'' Product Stage	137	(30)
Andreas Taschner
Analysis of Customer Expectations for the Introduction of New Telecommunications Services	167	(12)
Isabella Maria Palombini
Bartolomeo Sapio
Limits to Growth in Telecom Markets?	179	(24)
Jan-Petter Saether
Forecasting Telephony Demand Against a Background of Major Structural Change	203	(14)
David Cracknell
Clive Mason
161 Days of Full Competition - Some Observations from the German Market	217	(32)
Ernst-Olav Ruhle
Competition in the Chinese Cellular Market: Promise and Problematic	249	(16)
Xu Yan
Douglas C. Pitt
Index	265