The Future of Turkish-Western Relations Toward a Strategic Plan

by Kalilzad, Zalmay; Lesser, Ian O.; Larrabee, Stephen F.

• ISBN13: 9780833028754
• ISBN10: 0833028758
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2000-08-08
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

At the European Union's Helsinki Summit in December 1999, Turkey was declared a candidate for EU membership. But European and U.S. stakes in Turkey continue to evolve in today's post-Cold War era, influenced in no small part by Turkey's geopolitical position as a pivotal state. The United States is concerned with Turkish support for U.S. freedom of action in key regions, and Turkey wants to ensure that it will have EU and U.S. assistance in managing its own regional challenges. Explores the significance of changes on the Turkish domestic scene, as well as the contours of Ankara's increasingly active external policies. The report goes on to discuss Western stakes in the future of a changing Turkey. The authors offer an agenda for closer strategic cooperation in the U.S.-Turkish-European triangle, focusing on key issues such as relations with Russia, energy security, containing weapons proliferation risks in the Middle East, and reinforcing Turkish convergence with the European Union.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	vii
Summary	ix
Acknowledgments	xiii
Introduction	1	(4)
New Stakes, New Opportunities	1	(3)
Structure of the Report	4	(1)
Changes On The Turkish Domestic Scene And Their Foreign Policy Implications	5	(16)
Rising Nationalism and Its Counterweights	5	(9)
Traditional Versus Modern Worldviews	14	(2)
Emergence of a Dynamic Private Sector	16	(3)
A More Stable Internal Environment?	19	(2)
Turkish Foreign And Security Policy: New Dimensions And New Challenges	21	(32)
The Russian Factor	22	(3)
Cyprus	23	(1)
The Kurdish Issue	23	(1)
Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE)	23	(1)
Chechnya	24	(1)
Central Asia and the Caucasus	25	(3)
The Caucasus	28	(3)
The Middle East	31	(5)
The Balkans	36	(3)
Relations with Europe	39	(2)
NATO and ESDI	41	(2)
Greece and Cyprus	43	(2)
The American Connection	45	(3)
Conclusion: Turkey's Strategic Options	48	(5)
Western Interests In A Changing Turkey	53	(26)
Transregional Issues and Opportunities	53	(1)
Changing Definition of European Security	54	(2)
New Security Geometries	56	(1)
A Pivotal State?	57	(4)
Thinking Through U.S. Stakes	61	(14)
Stability and Democracy	61	(4)
A Positive Regional Actor	65	(6)
Enhancing U.S. Freedom of Action	71	(4)
Elements of Continuity and Change	75	(2)
Policy Implications	77	(2)
A Strategic Plan For Western-Turkish Relations	79
The Impact of the End of the Cold War	79
Elements of a New Strategic Partnership Between the United States, Western Europe, and Turkey	82
Energy Security	82
Countering the Threat of Weapons of Mass Destruction and Missiles	86
``Congage'' Russia	89
Deepening Turkish Integration in the West	93
Conclusion	95