Future U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan U.S. Air Force Roles

by Thaler, David E.; Karasik, Theodore W.; Kaye, Dalia Dassa; Moroney, Jennifer D.P.; Wehrey, Frederic

• ISBN13: 9780833041975
• ISBN10: 0833041975
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2008-10-25
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

"The United States is heavily invested - diplomatically, economically, and militarily - in Iraq and Afghanistan, and developments in these two nations will affect not only their own interests but those of their neighbors and the United States as well. This monograph emphasizes that the United States must clarify its long-term intentions to the governments and peoples in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the surrounding regions. The authors describe possible regional security structures and bilateral U.S. relationships with both countries, and they recommend that the United States offer a wide range of security cooperation activities to future governments while hedging against less-favorable contingencies. Finally, they recommend that the United States provide increased, sustained resources for development of Iraqi and Afghan airpower. The greater the emphasis on building these capabilities now, the faster indigenous air forces will be able to operate independently - and the faster the operational demands on the U.S. Air Force will diminish."--BOOK JACKET.

Table of Contents

Preface	p. iii
Figures and Table	p. ix
Summary	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xxiii
Abbreviations	p. xxvii
Introduction	p. 1
U.S., Iraqi, and Afghan Security Objectives	p. 4
U.S. Interests in the Surrounding Regions	p. 4
U.S. Interests in Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 4
Iraqi and Afghan Security Objectives	p. 8
Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 10
Toward Compatibility and Security	p. 13
Toward Incompatibility and Insecurity	p. 14
Toward Incompatibility and Security	p. 15
Concluding Remarks	p. 16
Perspectives on Potential Threats to Stability and Security in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Surrounding Regions	p. 19
Introduction	p. 19
Threats to Iraqi and Afghan Security	p. 20
Threat Perceptions of Iraq's Domestic Groups	p. 20
Threat Perceptions of Afghanistan's Domestic Groups	p. 21
The Evolution of Terrorism and Insurgency in Afghanistan and Iraq	p. 22
The Breakdown of Central Authority in Afghanistan and Iraq	p. 28
Regional Threat Perceptions	p. 31
Saudi Arabia and Other Gulf Cooperation Council States	p. 33
Turkey	p. 36
Iran	p. 37
Pakistan	p. 41
Threat Perceptions and Alternative Outcomes in Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 43
Concluding Remarks	p. 46
Alternative Security Relationships	p. 47
The Context of Future Regional Security Frameworks	p. 48
Continued Competitive Bilateralism	p. 50
Cooperative Bilateralism: Enhancing Cooperative Partnerships	p. 51
Competitive Multilateralism: NATO in the Middle East?	p. 53
Cooperative Multilateralism	p. 55
A Layered Regional Security Framework	p. 61
Bilateral U.S. Security Relationships with Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 62
Formal Defense Pacts	p. 63
Strategic Partnerships	p. 65
Situational Partnerships	p. 67
Minimal or No Security Ties	p. 70
Preferred U.S. Bilateral Security Ties with Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 71
Building Future Security Cooperation with Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 73
Shaping Partners Through Security Cooperation	p. 73
Current Security Cooperation Activities	p. 77
Security Cooperation with Afghanistan Under Alternative Outcomes	p. 79
Security Cooperation with Iraq Under Alternative Outcomes	p. 83
Concluding Remarks	p. 88
Long-Term Roles for the U.S. Air Force in Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 89
Roles of Iraqi and Afghan Security Forces	p. 91
Developing Iraqi and Afghan Forces	p. 93
Building Iraqi Airpower	p. 97
Building Afghan Airpower	p. 102
Building Air Capability in the Iraqi and Afghan Police Forces	p. 105
Encouraging Cooperation Among Regional Air Forces	p. 106
Concluding Remarks	p. 108
USAF Direct Operations in Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Surrounding Regions	p. 108
Operational Tasks USAF Assets Will Be Asked to Accomplish	p. 110
Ensuring "Jointness" in Planning in the Theater	p. 113
USAF Posture in the Theater	p. 115
A Sustained Level of Effort	p. 117
Implications of Alternative Iraqi and Afghan Outcomes	p. 118
Concluding Remarks	p. 123
Conclusions and Recommendations	p. 125
Recommendations for the USG and the DoD	p. 126
Regional Partnerships and Security Structures	p. 127
U.S. Partnerships with Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 128
Recommendations for the U.S. Air Force	p. 129
Building Iraqi and Afghan Capacity for Independent Air Operations	p. 130
Direct Operations in Iraq and Afghanistan	p. 132
Planning for a Long-Term Role	p. 134
Appendix: Force Structure Data, Iraqi and Afghan Air Arms, May 2007	p. 137
Bibliography	p. 139
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