The Geographical Analysis of Population With Applications to Planning and Business

by Plane, David A.; Rogerson, Peter A.

• ISBN13: 9780471510147
• ISBN10: 0471510149
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 1994-02-16
• Publisher: John Wiley & Sons Inc

Summary

Concentrates on both applied demographic and planning techniques which rely upon geographical aspects of population data. Describes methods used to assess the impact of population change on facility demand, school enrollment, changes in product market, transportation and recreation demand forecasting. Applied problems expose students to hands-on planning problems. Questions and solutions use actual data.

Table of Contents

Introduction	1	(22)
Why Study Population?	1	(1)
Local-Scale Applications Require Broad System-Scale Perspectives	2	(1)
The World Scale: Potential Consequences of Population Change	2	(6)
Fibonnacci's Rabbits	2	(2)
Current and Past Rates of World Population Growth	4	(3)
Implications of Falling Birth Rates	7	(1)
The National Scale: Age Composition and Migration Pattern Shifts	8	(5)
Impact of the Baby Boom	8	(2)
Broad-Scale Migration Pattern Changes	10	(2)
The Repercussions of Age Composition Changes on Migration Patterns	12	(1)
The Local Scale: A School Reassignment Case Study	13	(6)
Case Study: Catalina Foothills School District Elementary School Reassignment Problem	14	(4)
Reasons for Our Focus on the Local Scale	18	(1)
The Interdisciplinary Organization of Population Research	19	(2)
Demography and Population Studies	19	(1)
Population Geography	19	(1)
Population Analysis in Planning, Marketing, and Regional Science	20	(1)
Sources of Population Data	21	(2)
U.S. Census	21	(1)
Private-Sector Sources	22	(1)
Population Distribution and Composition	23	(34)
Introduction	23	(1)
Population Distribution	23	(14)
Population Dot Maps	24	(1)
Population Density	25	(3)
The Index of Concentration	28	(1)
The Lorenz Curve	29	(2)
Centers of Population	31	(6)
Measuring Accessibility	37	(4)
The Threshold Accessibility Index	37	(1)
The Aggregate Accessibility Index	38	(3)
Population Composition	41	(9)
Median Age	42	(1)
The Dependency Ratio	42	(1)
Economic Participation Measures	43	(1)
The Sex Ratio	44	(2)
Population Pyramids	46	(2)
Location Quotients	48	(2)
Geographic Association	50	(3)
Summary	53	(4)
Describing Demographic Change	57	(34)
Introduction	57
Population Growth (and Decline)	53	(11)
Percentage Changes	58	(1)
Geometric Rates of Change	58	(1)
Exponential Rates of Change	59	(2)
Determining the Geometric and Exponential Rates of Change	61	(1)
Logistic Growth	62	(2)
Components of Change and Demographic Accounting	64	(6)
Demographic Rates and Probabilities	64	(1)
Components of Change	65	(1)
Demographic Accounting	66	(2)
Illustrative Example: Minor Flows	68	(2)
Measures of Mortality	70	(5)
Standardized Death Rates	71	(3)
Measures of Infant Mortality	74	(1)
Life Tables: Construction and Interpretation	75	(6)
Interpretation of a Life Table as a Cohort of Individuals	75	(2)
Alternative Interpretation as a Stationary Population	77	(1)
Life Table Construction	77	(1)
Survival Ratios	78	(3)
Measures of Fertility	81	(5)
Period versus Cohort Rates	86	(1)
Summary	86	(5)
Migration: Analyzing the Geographic Patterns	91	(36)
Introduction	91	(1)
Migration Definition and Measurement	92	(3)
Importance of Areal Unit Definition	93	(1)
Fixed Period versus Registry-type Data	94	(1)
Measures of Migration	95	(5)
Transition Probabilities	95	(2)
Gross Migration Rates	97	(1)
Net Migration Rates	98	(1)
Demographic Effectiveness	98	(2)
The Relationship Between In- and Out-Migration	100	(6)
The Intuitive Perspective	100	(1)
The Positive Correlation Perspective	100	(2)
Lowry's ``Asymmetrical'' Relationship of In- and Out-Migration	102	(1)
Beale's Findings	102	(1)
Kriesberg and Vining's Measure of In- and Out-Migration Contributions	103	(1)
The Nonlinearity of the Relationship between Out-Migration and Net Migration	104	(1)
The Cross-Regional Variance of In-Migration and Out-Migration	105	(1)
The Entropy of In- and Out-Migration	105	(1)
Disaggregating by Migrant Characteristics	106	(9)
Migration Age Schedules	107	(1)
Migration Expectancies and Migraproduction Rates	108	(3)
Migrant Selectivity	111	(1)
Beaten Paths and the Role of Information	112	(1)
Return Migration	113	(1)
Duration of Residence Effects and Cumulative Inertia	114	(1)
Methods for Analyzing Geographic Patterns of Migration	115	(9)
Principal Component Analysis	115	(3)
The Extremal Tendencies of Sonis	118	(3)
Spatial Shift-Share Analysis	121	(3)
Summary	124	(3)
Population Estimation	127	(28)
Introduction	127	(3)
The Parlance of Estimates	128	(2)
The Principal Types of Estimation Techniques	130	(1)
Simple Interpolation and Extrapolation	130	(4)
Linear Interpolation	130	(2)
Alternative Extrapolation Techniques	132	(2)
The Regression or Ratio-Correlation Method	134	(3)
A Real World Ratio-Correlation Equation	136	(1)
Problems with Ratio-Correlation Estimates	136	(1)
Component Methods	137	(5)
Component Method II	137	(3)
The Administrative Records Method	140	(2)
Housing-Unit Methods	142	(4)
Monitoring Temporal Change in the Number of Housing Units	142	(2)
Measuring Occupancy Rates	144	(1)
The Persons-per-Housing-Unit Factor	145	(1)
Evaluating Estimates	146	(5)
Two Methods for ``Testing'' Estimation Procedures	146	(1)
Some Rules of Thumb to Improve Estimates	147	(3)
A Case Study in the Pitfalls of Unequal Weighting	150	(1)
Summary	151	(4)
Population Projections	155	(34)
Introduction	155	(1)
Elementary Extrapolative Methods	156	(4)
Linear Extrapolation	157	(1)
Geometric and Exponential Extrapolation	158	(2)
The Single-Region Cohort Component Model	160	(9)
Matrix Form of the Cohort Component Model	164	(2)
Example	166	(3)
Cohort Component Models with Migration	169	(8)
Cohort Survival with Constant Net Migration Rates	169	(1)
The Markov Model for Population Redistribution	170	(4)
The Interregional Cohort Component Model	174	(2)
Accounting-Based Population Projections	176	(1)
Other Applications of the Cohort Concept	177	(1)
School Enrollment Projections	177	(6)
The Grade Progression Ratio Method	178	(3)
The Housing Unit Method	181	(2)
Projecting the Demographic Structure of Organizations	183	(1)
Summary	184	(5)
Modeling and Forecasting Migration	189	(42)
Introduction	189	(1)
What Migration Quantity to Model?	190	(6)
The Volatility of Net Migration	191	(1)
The Fallacy of Using Net Migration Rates for Forecasting	192	(4)
The Gravity Model	196	(10)
Distance Deterrence	197	(2)
Constrained and Unconstrained Gravity Models	199	(1)
Fitting an Unconstrained Model	200	(3)
Singly Constrained Gravity Models	203	(1)
Other Forms of the Gravity Model	204	(2)
The Intervening Opportunities Model	206	(5)
An Example: The Opportunity and Constrained Gravity Models Compared	208	(3)
Temporally Varying Transitional Probabilities	211	(8)
The Causative Matrix Model	211	(4)
Feeney's Model	215	(3)
The Destination Population Weighted (DPW) Model	218	(1)
Improving on the Basic DPW Model	218	(1)
Economic Gravity Models	219	(6)
Lowry's Model	220	(2)
The Role of Amenities	222	(1)
The Need for a Micro Perspective in Behavioral Migration Research	223	(1)
An Important Accounting Constraint: Milne's ``Seemingly Unrelated Regression Approach''	224	(1)
Toward Economic-Demographic Models	225	(2)
Comprehensive Economic-Demographic Modeling Frameworks	227	(1)
Summary	227	(4)
The Role of Population in Infrastructure Planning	231	(44)
Introduction	231	(1)
Urban Travel Forecasting	232	(13)
The Role of Free Choice and Constraints in Urban Travel Demand Analysis	232	(1)
Steps in the Urban Travel Forecasting Process	233	(12)
Recreation Facilities Planning	245	(10)
Recreation Supply	248	(1)
Recreation Demand	248	(6)
Matching Forecasts of Demand with Supply	254	(1)
Site Location	255	(4)
Impediments to the Production of Improved Forecasts	259	(1)
Optimal Demand Assignment Methods	260	(9)
The Un-unified-Unified School District Problem	261	(8)
The Use of Forecasts in Decision Making	269	(1)
Summary	270	(5)
Household Demography	275	(24)
Introduction	275	(1)
A Brief Look at Households, Location, and Relocation in the United States	276	(3)
Geographic Concepts Relevant to the Study of Households	279	(5)
Vacancy Chains	280	(4)
Demographic and Geographic Analysis of Households	284	(12)
Householders and Markers	285	(1)
Householder Rate Method	285	(2)
The Household Membership Rate Method	287	(4)
Microsimulation	291	(2)
Matching Housing Demand with Housing Supply	293	(3)
Summary	296	(3)
Demographics	299	(40)
Introduction	299	(2)
The Measurement of Diversity and Segregation	301	(7)
Diversity Measures	301	(2)
Segregation Measures	303	(4)
``Cracking and Packing'': Diversity and Segregation in Political Redistricting	307	(1)
Factorial Ecology	308	(12)
Case Study: Postindustrial Demographic Change in Cleveland	309	(11)
Cluster Analysis for Defining Socially Homogeneous Areas	320	(8)
Similarity Measures	322	(1)
Agglomerative Clustering	323	(4)
Iterative Clustering	327	(1)
Life-Style Clustering for Market Segmentation and Targeting	328	(6)
Case Study: The Geography of Grit Magazine Subscription	329	(5)
Summary	334	(5)
Demographic and Geographic Information Systems for Population Analysis	339	(22)
Introduction	339	(1)
A Brief Historical Account of Early Population Mapping	340	(1)
TIGER: A Digital Cartographic Database	341	(4)
The TIGER System	343	(2)
Geographic Information Systems	345	(1)
Demographic and Geographic Information Systems for Population Analysis	345	(5)
Some Capabilities of Demographic and Geographic Information Systems Relevant to Population Analysis	350	(6)
Areas of Polygons	350	(1)
Areal Interpolation	351	(1)
Dasymetric Mapping	352	(2)
Choropleth Maps and Geographic Scale	354	(2)
Limitations of GIS Used for Population Analysis	356	(1)
Prospects	357	(1)
Summary	358	(3)
Conclusions	361	(12)
Importance of the Geographical Analysis of Population	361	(1)
Scale	361	(5)
Scale Dependence in Choice of Method	361	(1)
Different Questions for Different Scales	362	(1)
The Modifiable Areal Unit Problem	362	(1)
Positive Benefits from Studying Phenomena at Alternative Spatial Scales	363	(1)
Results at a Given Scale May Hide Significant Spatial Variation	364	(2)
Long-Term Perspectives on Population Change	366	(3)
The Interaction Between Rates and Composition	366	(3)
Geographic Perspectives on Future Population Change	369	(4)
Appendix A Addresses for U.S. Organizations of Interest	373	(1)
Appendix B Geographical Subunits and Hierarchical Relationships	374	(5)
Appendix C Logarithms	379	(1)
Appendix D Matrix Algebra	380	(2)
References	382	(15)
Solutions to Selected Exercises	397	(11)
Author Index	408	(2)
Subject Index	410