Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century

by Alcamo; Leemans; Kreileman

• ISBN13: 9780080434476
• ISBN10: 0080434479
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-01-19
• Publisher: Elsevier Science

Summary

Global Change Scenarios of the 21st Century informs readers of conceivable environmental changes in the next hundred years. Integrated scenarios are used to communicate large amounts of information about different aspects of the global environmental system, together with society's role within this system. Uniquely, the scenarios are generated by an integrated computer model, IMAGE 2.1, which enhances consistency and provides a framework for linking environmental and social aspects of global change. The book is divided into four parts, the volume begins by describing the model used to generate these scenarios, explaining its current features. This is followed by scenarios of changing climate, energy and food use, land cover, acidification, sea level and many other indicators of global change up to 2100. The long term consequences of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are then explored in a section which uses the concepts of 'safe landing' and 'safe emission corridors' to address the connection between the long-term climate protection and short-term emission reductions. The final sections examines how the complicated and crucial issue of how complex global scenario information can be communicated to policy makers.

Table of Contents

Foreword	vii	(2)
Preface	ix
PART 1. AN INSTRUMENT FOR BUILDING GLOBAL CHANGE SCENARIOS	3	(94)
Global modelling of environmental change: an overview of IMAGE 2.1	3	(94)
Joseph Alcamo
Eric Kreileman
Maarten Krol
Rik Leemans
Johannes Bollen
Jelle van Minnen
Michiel Schaefer
Sander Toet
Bert de Vries
PART 2. BASELINE GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE 21st CENTURY	97	(66)
Baseline scenarios of global environmental change (Previously published in Volume 6, Number 4 of Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)	97	(44)
Joseph Alcamo
Eric Kreileman
Johannes Bollen
Gert Jan van den Born
Reyer Gerlagh
Maarten Krol
Sander Toet
Bert de Vries
Integrated scenarios of acidification and climate change in Asia and Europe (Previously published in Volume 6, Number 4 of Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)	141	(22)
Maximilian Posch
Jean-Paul Hettelingh
Joseph Alcamo
Maarten Krol
PART 3. EVALUATION OF GLOBAL POLICY SCENARIOS	163	(98)
Emission scenarios and global climate protection (Previously published in Volume 6, Number 4 of Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)	163	(30)
Joseph Alcamo
Eric Kreileman
The safe landing approach: risks and trade-offs in climate change	193	(42)
Robert Swart
Marcel Berk
Marco Janssen
Eric Kreileman
Rik Leemans
Evaluating cost-effective strategies for meeting regional CO(2) targets (Previously published in Volume 6, Number 4 of Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)	235
Johannes Bollen
Sander Toet
Bert de Vries
The land cover and carbon cycle consequences of large-scale utilization of biomass as an energy source (Previously published in Volume 6, Number 4 of Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)	235	(26)
Rik Leemans
Andre van Amstel
Coos Battjes
Eric Kreileman
Sander Toet
PART 4. EPILOGUE: GLOBAL MODELS AND GLOBAL POLICYMAKING	261	(26)
Global models meet global policy: How can global and regional modellers connect with environmental policy makers? (Previously published in Volume 6, Number 4 of Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions)	261	(6)
Joseph Alcamo
Eric Kreileman
Rik Leemans
The Delft process: experiences with a dialogue between policy makers and global modellers	267	(20)
Els van Daalen
Wil Thissen
Marcel Berk
Author Index	287	(2)
Subject Index	289