The Global Course of the Information Revolution Recurring Themes and Regional Variations

by Hundley, Richard O.; Anderson, Robert H.; Bikson, Tora K.; Neu, Richard C.

• ISBN13: 9780833034243
• ISBN10: 0833034243
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-11-04
• Publisher: RAND Corporation

Summary

Projects the impact of information technology and the information revoultion on areas across the globe for the next 10 to 15 years.

Table of Contents

Preface	iii
Figures	xix
Tables	xxi
Summary	xxiii
Acknowledgments	xli
Abbreviations	xliii
Chapter One INTRODUCTION	1	(10)
We Addressed a Wide Range of Questions	2	(2)
In the Technology Arena	2	(1)
In the Business and Financial Arena	2	(1)
In the Governmental and Political Arena	3	(1)
In the Social and Cultural Arena	3	(1)
With Regard to Regional Variations	4	(1)
Globalization and the Information Revolution Are Closely Linked	4	(1)
Some Topics We Did Not Address-Deliberately	5	(1)
The Course of This Effort	5	(1)
This Report	6	(1)
Much Has Happened Since We Began This Effort	7	(1)
Notes	8	(3)
PART I. RECURRING THEMES
Chapter Two NEW TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENTS WILL CONTINUALLY DRIVE THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION	11	(14)
It Is Useful to Distinguish Among Developments in
Technology, Products, and Services	11	(1)
Some Technology Developments Can Be Foreseen	12	(1)
Product Developments Will Allow Information Devices to Be Ubiquitous, Wearable, and in Continuous Contact	13	(1)
Services Developments Will Greatly Extend Access to, and the Usefulness of, Information Systems	14	(4)
Kiosks Can Provide Easy Access to Some Information Services	14	(1)
Entertainment Will Be at the Leading Edge of Novel Information Services	15	(1)
Information Services Will Play an Increasing Role in Health Care and Telemedicine	16	(1)
Online Education Will Have Increasing, but Specialized, Effects	17	(1)
Micropayment Schemes Will Emerge to Handle Small Online Payments	17	(1)
Markets Will Decide What Possible Products and Services Become Actual and Widespread	18	(2)
The Emergence of "Killer Apps" Can Greatly Affect Markets and Create Markets	19	(1)
Some Tensions Arising from These Developments Will Affect the Growth and Spread of IT-Related Products and Services	20	(1)
Optical Communication Technologies Are Highly Disruptive to Existing Telecommunication Industries Worldwide, and Other New Communications Developments Could Be as Well	20	(1)
Open Source Versus Closed Source: Proprietary Standards Battles Will Continue	20	(1)
Intellectual Property and Digital Rights Issues Are Creating Major Tensions	21	(1)
A Period of Information Technology Consolidation Is Both Likely and Healthy	21	(1)
Notes	22	(3)
Chapter Three THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION IS ENABLING NEW BUSINESS MODELS THAT ARE TRANSFORMING THE BUSINESS AND FINANCIAL WORLDS	25	(10)
Many New Business Models Are Arising	25	(5)
Electronic Commerce Is Becoming Increasingly Important	26	(1)
IT-Driven Changes Are Furthest Along in the Financial World	27	(1)
Much of This Leading-Edge, IT-Enabled Business Activity Is Concentrated in Geographic "Clusters"	28	(1)
"Creative Destruction" Is a Common Feature of These Business and Financial Transformations	28	(1)
Information Work and Information Workers Are Becoming Increasingly Important	28	(1)
This IT-Enabled Business and Financial Revolution Will Be Ongoing for Some Time	29	(1)
Recent Developments May Temporarily Slow the Pace of These Transformations in the Business and Financial World and Affect Their Near-Term Character, but Not Their Ultimate Magnitude and Importance	29	(1)
These Transformations in the Business and Financial World Are Changing the Playing Field for Governments and Societies	30	(1)
Notes	30	(5)
Chapter Four THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION IS AFFECTING MECHANISMS OF GOVERNANCE AND EMPOWERING NEW POLITICAL ACTORS	35	(10)
Some Traditional Mechanisms of Governance Are Becoming Problematic	35	(1)
New Governmental Mechanisms Are Being Enabled	36	(1)
New Political Actors Are Being Empowered	36	(1)
The Information Revolution Could Over Time Change the Role of the Nation-State: The Jury Is Still Out	37	(2)
Different Nations Will Take Different Approaches to Dealing with These Changes	39	(1)
The Events of 9/11 May Lead to Increased Governmental Intervention into IT Developments	39	(1)
Notes	40	(5)
Chapter Five THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION BOTH SHAPES AND IS SHAPED BY SOCIAL AND CULTURAL VALUES IN SIGNIFICANT WAYS	45	(10)
The Information Revolution Is Being Enabled by Technology but Driven Primarily by Nontechnical Factors, Including Social and Cultural Factors	45	(1)
Digital Divides Within and Between Nations Will Persist, but Their Future Scope, Duration, and Significance Are Subject to Debate	46	(1)
Ability to Acquire and Use Knowledge Will Be Critical for Success in the Information Society: Developing Human Capital Appropriately Is Key	47	(2)
Globalization, Boosted by the Information Revolution, Will Continue to Have Multivalenced Social and Cultural Effects	49	(1)
Will IT-Enabled Globalization Lead to Greater Homogeneity or Greater Heterogeneity in Sociocultural Terms? The Answer is "Yes" to Both	50	(1)
The Information Revolution Raises Significant Social Cultural Questions for Which Well-Grounded Research Answers Are Unavailable	50	(2)
What Is Effective Proximity?	50	(1)
What Are Viable Models for Leadership and Management in a Networked Global Society?	51	(1)
Can the Information Revolution Contribute Meaningfully and Measurably to Environmental Sustainability?	51	(1)
How Should Risk-Tolerance and Long-Term Planning Be Balanced over the Course of the Information Revolution to Yield Positive Social and Cultural Outcomes?	52	(1)
Notes	52	(3)
Chapter Six MANY FACTORS SHAPE AND CHARACTERIZE A NATION'S APPROACH TO THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION	55	(16)
Some Factors Are Causative	55	(5)
Rich Nations Are Better Positioned Than Poor Nations to Exploit the Information Revolution	55	(1)
How a Society Deals with Change Is a Major Factor Shaping a Nation's IR Posture	56	(2)
Governments and Laws Can Be Helpful or Unhelpful	58	(1)
The Structure of Capital Markets Is Also Important	59	(1)
These Causative Factors Can Play Out in Various Ways	59	(1)
Other Factors Are Effects, Not Causes	60	(3)
The Degree and Nature of IT Penetration into a Society and the Distribution of Its IT Activity Across the Technology, Product, and Service Spectrum Are Useful Descriptors of a Nation's IR Posture	60	(1)
Measures of Information Work and Workers and of E-Commerce Are Also Important Descriptors	61	(1)
The Presence and Number of IT Business Clusters Are Important Descriptors of the Vigor of a Nation's IR Posture	61	(1)
The Amount of "Creative Destruction" Going On in a Nation Can Be an Important Descriptor of Its IR Posture	61	(1)
The Presence of New Political Actors and Changes in Governance Are Measures of IR-Induced Change in the Political Arena	62	(1)
The Movement of Talented, IT-Trained People Can Be a Useful Indicator of a Nation's IR Posture	63	(1)
Notes	63	(8)
PART II. REGIONAL VARIATIONS
Chapter Seven NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE IN THE VANGUARD OF THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION	71	(6)
The North American Economy and Society Are Well Positioned to Meet the Challenges of the Information Revolution	71	(1)
North America Will Exploit These Advantages to Continue in the Vanguard of the Information Revolution	72	(1)
The Dot-Com Crash and Telecom Implosion May Slow the Pace of IT-Related Developments in North America, but Only Temporarily	73	(1)
The Events of 9/11 May Lead to Increased Governmental Intervention in IT Developments in North America	73	(1)
North America Will, in General, Deal Well with the Stresses Generated by the Information Revolution	74	(1)
Notes	75	(2)
Chapter Eight THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION IS FOLLOWING A SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT AND MORE DELIBERATE COURSE IN EUROPE	77	(8)
Europeans Place More Emphasis on Wireless	77	(1)
The Information Revolution in Europe Is Developing in a Different Climate	78	(2)
Differing European and American Approaches to Economic and Social Change	78	(1)
The Greater Importance Europeans Attach to Economic and Social Equity	78	(1)
The European Desire for "Convergence"	78	(1)
Differing Trade-Offs Between Market Forces and Government Policies	79	(1)
A Greater European Emphasis on Top-Down Planning	79	(1)
The European Emphasis on Sustainability	79	(1)
The Course of the Information Revolution in Europe Is Somewhat Different	80	(1)
Will, or Must, Europe Become More Like America? Maybe Yes, Maybe No	81	(1)
Some Europeans View American Dominance as Part of the "Dark Side" of the Information Revolution	82	(1)
Notes	82	(3)
Chapter Nine MANY ASIA-PACIFIC NATIONS ARE POISED TO DO WELL IN THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION, SOME ARE NOT	85	(18)
Asia-Pacific Nations Vary Greatly in Their Information Revolution Postures	85	(6)
Several Asia-Pacific Nations Are Doing Well Today in the Information Revolution	85	(1)
Today the Asia-Pacific Region Is a Much More Significant Global IT Producer Than a Consumer	86	(1)
Asian Nations Generally Follow the "Japan Model" in the Evolution of Their IT Production Activities	87	(2)
Japan Has Something of a "Split Personality" Today Regarding the Information Revolution	89	(1)
China and India Are of Special Note as Rapidly Emerging IT Users and Producers	90	(1)
Other Asian Nations Are Lagging Well Behind	91	(1)
The Impact of the Information Revolution on Politics and Governance in the Asia-Pacific Region Varies Widely from Nation to Nation	91	(2)
Information Technology Has Had an Impact on Politics in Some Asian Nations Thus Far, but Not in Others	91	(1)
IT Is Reshaping the Way Asia-Pacific Governments Conduct the Business of Governance: More in Some Nations Than in Others	92	(1)
What Does the Future Hold for the Asia-Pacific Region?	93	(3)
Over Time, China Should Emerge as a Major IT Player in Asia and the World	93	(1)
Other Asian Nations Currently Leading in IT Will Define Their Futures by Their Responses to China's Growing IT Role	94	(1)
Japan's Future Course Is Unclear: It Could Continue as a Leader in IT or Gradually Fall Behind	95	(1)
India's Software and Back-Office Service Industries Should Prosper; However, a Broader Role in the Information Revolution May Be Beyond India's Reach	95	(1)
Most of Today's Laggards Will Continue to Lag	96	(1)
Notes	96	(7)
Chapter Ten LATIN AMERICA FACES MANY OBSTACLES IN RESPONDING TO THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION: SOME NATIONS WILL RISE TO THE CHALLENGE, OTHERS WILL NOT	103	(10)
Today Most Latin American Nations Are "Also-Rans" in the Information Revolution, as They Are in the Global Economy	103	(1)
Latin American Nations Can Be Divided into "Leaders," "Successful Outliers," and the Rest	104	(3)
Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay Have Been Latin America's Leaders in the Information Revolution in Recent Years	105	(1)
A Few Latin American Nations Are "Successful Outliers" Regarding the Information Revolution	106	(1)
The Rest of the Latin American Nations Are Following Along Behind-Sometimes Way Behind	107	(1)
Latin America Faces Many Obstacles in Exploiting Opportunities Offered by the Information Revolution	107	(1)
What Does the Future Hold for Latin America? Probably More of the Same	108	(1)
Notes	109	(4)
Chapter Eleven FEW MIDDLE EASTERN AND NORTH AFRICAN NATIONS WILL FULLY EXPERIENCE THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION, SOME MAY MISS IT ALTOGETHER	113	(12)
IT Penetration Is Generally Low in Most MENA Nations	113	(1)
MENA Nations Can Be Grouped into Three Categories Regarding the Information Revolution	114	(2)
The "Fearful" Nations	115	(1)
The "Best of Both" Nations	115	(1)
The "Driven" Nations	115	(1)
The Social Implications of the Information Revolution for the MENA Nations Could Be Wide-Ranging	116	(1)
Few MENA Nations Will Fully Exploit the Information Revolution, Causing This Region to Fall Even Further Behind OECD Nations	116	(4)
The "Driven" Nations	117	(1)
The "Best of Both" Nations	118	(1)
The "Fearful" Nations	119	(1)
Israel	120	(1)
Notes	120	(5)
Chapter Twelve MOST COUNTRIES OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA WILL FALL FURTHER BEHIND IN THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION	125	(10)
There Are Extreme Disparities Among African Nations; As a Result, Few Statements Apply Universally	125	(1)
In Africa, Mass Media Predominate over Point-to-Point Communication	125	(1)
Compared with the Rest of the World, Africa Is Falling Behind	126	(1)
Africa's IT Problems Are Not Primarily Technical: They Involve Factors of Culture, Competence, Capital, and Control	126	(3)
Cultural Factors Complicate and Impede the Spread and Use of Information Technology in Africa	127	(1)
It Takes an Educated Populace to Know How to Bring IT to Those Who Most Need It	128	(1)
Many sub-Saharan Countries Lack Financial and Physical Capital	128	(1)
The Agencies of Control in sub-Saharan African Countries Often Impede IT Development	129	(1)
There Are, However, Positive Indications That the Information Revolution Is Moving Forward in Africa	129	(1)
External Factors May Indirectly Impede IT Growth in Africa	130	(1)
The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa Affects the Region's Development Prospects	130	(1)
In the Post-9/11 Era, Much of the World's Attention and Resources Will Be Focused Elsewhere	130	(1)
Notes	131	(4)
PART III. SOME ADDITIONAL TOPICS (A BRIEF LOOK)
Chapter Thirteen GEOPOLITICAL TRENDS FURTHERED BY THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION COULD POSE CONTINUING CHALLENGES TO THE UNITED STATES	135	(4)
The U.S. Economy and Society Are Well Poised to Meet the Challenges of the Information Revolution	135	(1)
There Are Likely to Be Many Losers or Laggards Elsewhere in the World, Some of Whom Could Become Seriously Disaffected	135	(1)
The Information Revolution Better Enables Disaffected Peoples to Combine and Organize, Thereby Rendering Them Powers That Must Be Dealt With	136	(1)
The Existence of These Disaffected (and Organized) Losers or Laggards Could Lead to Trends in the World That May Challenge Vital U.S. Interests	136	(1)
Extreme Losers in the Information Revolution Could Become "Failed States"	136	(1)
Responding to the Information Revolution Will Stress European Economies, Societies, and Polities, Leading to Laggards and Losers Within Europe	136	(1)
The Inability of Japan to Change Sufficiently to Cope with the Information Revolution-If This Turns Out to Be the Case-Could Lead to the Failure of the Japanese Economy	137	(1)
These Trends Would Pose Continuing Challenges to U.S. Interests	137	(1)
Notes	137	(2)
Chapter Fourteen WHAT FUTURE EVENTS COULD CHANGE THESE PROJECTIONS?	139	(4)
Future "Killer Apps," Unclear at Present, Will Determine the Precise Nature of IT-Driven Transformations	139	(1)
Many Things Can Slow Down or Speed Up the Pace of IT-Driven Transformations	140	(1)
Future Geopolitical Events Could Adversely Affect How Different Nations and Regions of the World Fare	140	(1)
No Matter What Happens, the Degree to Which IT Ultimately Changes the World Is Unlikely to Change	140	(1)
Notes	141	(2)
Chapter Fifteen THE INFORMATION REVOLUTION IS PART OF A BROADER TECHNOLOGY REVOLUTION WITH EVEN PROFOUNDER CONSEQUENCES	143	(4)
Advances in Biotechnology and Nanotechnology Will Also Greatly Change the World	143	(1)
There Are Many Synergies Between IT and These Other Revolutionary Technologies	144	(1)
The Consequences of the Biorevolution Will Be Especially Profound and Quite Controversial	145	(1)
As with the Information Revolution, the Bio- and Nanorevolutions Will Play Out Unevenly Throughout the World	145	(1)
Notes	145
Appendix
PARTICIPANTS IN THE RAND/NIC INFORMATION REVOLUTION CONFERENCES	147	(16)
References	163