Global Environmental Change

by Kondratev, K. Ia; Krapivin, Vladimir F.; Phillips, Gary W.

• ISBN13: 9783540433736
• ISBN10: 3540433732
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-11-01
• Publisher: Springer Verlag

Summary

This is a timely book in light of increasing concern over global warming and environmental pollution. It describes a simulation system based on sets of computer algorithms for comprehensive analysis of data from global and regional monitoring systems. Chapters in the theoretical part of the book contain descriptions of rigorous algorithms and global environmental models. The applied part considers specific problems of environmental dynamics in areas such as the Arctic and the Caspian-Aral Seas. The purpose of this book is to develop a universal information technology to estimate the state of environmental subsystems functioning under various climatic and anthropogenic conditions. Applied mathematicians, hydrologists, geophysicists, socio-economists and other researchers of global change will find a wealth of information in this book.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Abbreviations	xiii
Introduction	1	(26)
Contemporary Stage of the Civilization Development	1	(5)
Contemporary Global Ecodynamics	6	(12)
Sustainable Development	18	(5)
Conclusion. Unsolved Problems	23	(4)
The Basic Principles of Global Ecoinformatics	27	(36)
The Main Idea of Global Ecoinformatics	27	(5)
The Technology of Geoinformation Monitoring	32	(4)
Elements of the Evolutionary Computer Technology	36	(3)
A New Type of Global Model	39	(4)
Global Modeling and Theory of Complex Systems Survivability	43	(20)
Basic Definitions	45	(3)
Study of the Simple Survivability Model	48	(10)
Methods for Determining Stable Strategies	58	(5)
Mathematical Model for Global Ecological Investigations	63	(68)
Conceptual Aspects of Global Ecological Investigations	63	(12)
General Description of the Global Model	75	(5)
Biogeochemical Cycles	80	(20)
Carbon Unit	80	(13)
Nitrogen Unit	93	(4)
Sulfur Unit	97	(3)
Units of Biogeocenotic, Hydrologic and Climatic Processes	100	(2)
Other Units of the Nature/Society System Model	102	(2)
World Ocean Bioproductivity Unit	102	(1)
Demographic Unit	103	(1)
Biocomplexity Index	104	(4)
Biocomplexity Indicator	104	(2)
The BSS Biocomplexity Model	106	(2)
Algorithms for the Data Processing	108	(14)
Data Reconstruction Using the Harmonic Functions	108	(2)
Method for Parametrical Identification of the Environmental Objects	110	(1)
Method of Differential Approximation	111	(1)
Quasi-Linearization Method	112	(10)
Experiments Using the Global Simulation Model	122	(9)
Plant Cover Restoration	123	(2)
Diversion of Siberian Rivers to Central Asia	125	(1)
Forecast for a Regional-Level Ecosystem Dynamics	125	(2)
Other Global Simulation Model Applications	127	(4)
Modeling of Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics	131	(32)
The World Ocean as a Complex Hierarchical System	131	(1)
Common Principles for the Synthesis of Ocean Ecosystem Models	132	(4)
Equations Describing the Ocean Ecosystem Dynamics	136	(4)
Analysis of the Vertical Structure of the Ocean Ecosystem	140	(3)
Mathematical Model of the Upwelling Ecosystem	143	(14)
Probabilistic Model of the Interaction Between Ocean Ecosystem Components	157	(6)
Application of a Global Model to the Study of Arctic Basin Pollution	163	(26)
Introduction	163	(1)
The Spatial Simulation Model of the Arctic Ecosystem Structure	164	(3)
The Marine Biota Unit	167	(4)
The Hydrological Unit	171	(2)
The Pollution Unit	173	(2)
Simulation Results	175	(10)
The Assumptions	175	(1)
The Dynamics of Arctic Basin Radionuclear Pollution	175	(6)
The Dynamics of Arctic Basin Pollution by Heavy metals	181	(1)
The Dynamics of Arctic Basin Pollution by Oil Hydrocarbons	182	(2)
The Dynamics of the Pollutants in the Arctic Basin	184	(1)
Summary and Conclusion	185	(4)
Estimation of the Peruvian Current Ecosystem	189	(18)
Introduction	189	(1)
Block Diagram and Principal Equations of the Peruvian Current Ecosystem (PCE) Model	190	(5)
Experiments That Use the Model of the PCE	195	(12)
Temperature Variations	197	(2)
Variations of Illumination	199	(1)
The Effect of Water Saturation with Oxygen	200	(2)
The Effect of Varying the Concentration of Nutrients	202	(1)
The Effect of Variations in the Velocity of Vertical Advection	202	(1)
The PCE Sensitivity with Respect to Variation in the Model Parameters	203	(2)
Investigation of PCE Survivability Under Variations in the Trophic Graph	205	(2)
A New Technology for Monitoring Environment in the Okhotsk Sea	207	(22)
Introduction	207	(2)
Block Diagram and Principal Structure of the Simulation Model of the Okhotsk Sea Ecosystem	209	(2)
The Marine Biota Unit	211	(4)
The Hydrological Unit	215	(2)
The Simulation Procedure and Experiments That Use the Simulation Model of the Okhotsk Sea Ecosystem	217	(7)
Biocomplexity Criteria and the Evaluation of the Okhotsk Sea Ecosystem	224	(4)
Concluding Remarks	228	(1)
Pollutants Dynamics in the Angara-Yenisey River System (AYRS)	229	(14)
Introduction	229	(2)
An AYRS Simulation Model (AYRSSM)	231	(5)
On-Site Measurements	236	(3)
Radionuclides in River Sediments	236	(3)
Heavy Metals in River Sediments	239	(1)
Experiments Using the AYRSSM	239	(2)
Concluding Remarks	241	(2)
Realization of the GIMS-Technology for the Study of the Aral-Caspian Aquageosystem	243	(16)
The Nature of the Problem	243	(2)
Remote Monitoring Database	245	(2)
Theory-Information Model of the Aral-Caspian Aquageosystem	247	(3)
Simulation System for the Study of the Hydrological Fields of the Aral Sea	250	(2)
Simulation Model of the Kara-Bogaz-Gol Gulf Water Regime	252	(2)
Simulation Experiments	254	(3)
Summary and Recommendations	257	(2)
Monitoring of the Seas in the Oil and Gas Extraction Zones	259	(20)
The Problem of Collection and Processing of Data in Monitoring Systems Operating in Zones of Oil and Gas Extraction	259	(4)
Concept of a System of Ecological Monitoring of the Sea Surface and the Atmosphere in Zones of Oil and Gas Extraction	263	(6)
Estimation of Oil Hydrocarbon Pollution Parameters in Seawater	269	(4)
Expert System for the Identification of Pollutant Spills on the Water Surface	273	(2)
Monitoring of the Gas Extraction Zone in the South China Sea	275	(4)
Decision-Making Procedures in Environmental Monitoring Systems	279	(20)
The Problem of Statistical Decision-Making and Basic Definitions	279	(7)
Correlation Between Classic and Sequential Decision-Making Procedures	279	(2)
Distribution of the Sequential Analysis and Its Universality	281	(1)
Scheme of the Decision-Making Procedure Using Sequential Analysis	281	(5)
Parametrical Estimations for Sequential Analysis	286	(3)
An Algorithm for Multichannel Data Processing in the Decision-Making Task	289	(5)
Organizational Scheme of the Statistical Analyzer Operation	290	(1)
Error Probability Assessment of the System and the Requisite Delay Memory Capacity with Constant Expectation Time	291	(1)
Evaluation of the System Error Probability and the Requisite Memory Capacity Delay with a Constant Number of Computer Storage Registers	292	(2)
Applications of the Sequential Decision-Making Procedure	294	(5)
References	299	(14)
Index	313