Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences

by Lee, Ronald D.

• ISBN13: 9780844771977
• ISBN10: 084477197X
• Edition: 1st
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2007-05-30
• Publisher: Aei Press

Summary

Global population aging is an inevitable feature of the final stages of the demographic transition, a worldwide combination of low fertility and low mortality that result in older, more slowly growing--even shrinking--populations. This trend raises the concurrent risks of rising dependency ratios of the elderly on the working-age population, and falling global saving rates as the growing retired population begins not to save after a lifetime of working. This lecture explains how the purported risks of global aging can be contained through foresight and prudent public policy, and also how these trends will affect the Third World countries.

Author Biography

Ronald D. Lee is the Edward G. and Nancy S. Jordan Family Professor of Economics and professor of demography at the University of California, Berkeley

Table of Contents

Illustrations	p. vii
Acknowledgments	p. ix
Global Population Aging and Its Economic Consequences	p. 1
The Demography of Population Aging	p. 2
First Principles of Population Aging	p. 2
The Demographic Transition in Slow Motion	p. 5
The Demographic Transition in Real Time	p. 7
Population Aging and Dependency	p. 10
International Variation in Old-Age Dependency Ratios	p. 12
Consumption and Production over the Lifecycle	p. 12
More Refined Measures of Production and Consumption	p. 13
Estimated Consumption and Earning for Third-World Populations	p. 13
The United States: Consumption Skewed to the Elderly	p. 15
The Changing Balance of Earners and Consumers	p. 16
The Indian Support Ratio from 1950 to 2100	p. 17
The U.S. Support Ratio over the Twenty-First Century	p. 19
Population Aging and the Accumulation of Wealth	p. 23
The Real World: Institutions and Intergenerational Transfers	p. 28
Capital Saturation, Transfer Policy, National Debt, and Trade	p. 32
Capital Intensification in Industrial Nations	p. 32
How Much Capital Do We Want?	p. 33
Conclusions	p. 35
Notes	p. 39
References	p. 41
About the Author	p. 45
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