Global Recession Risk Dollar Devaluation and the World Economy

by Peláez, Carlos M.; Peláez, Carlos A.

• ISBN13: 9780230521506
• ISBN10: 0230521509
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2007-05-15
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Summary

This book consists of a systematic analysis of the G7 doctrine of shared responsibility for reducing external imbalances to avoid a global recession originating in the devaluation of the dollar.

Author Biography

CARLOS M. PELÁEZ received a PhD and BS, Phi Beta Kappa, from Columbia University, City of New York, USA. He has published books, essays and articles worldwide. He was Director of Banco Chase and of the Rio de Janeiro Association of Banks and Vice President of Chase Manhattan Bank, USA. He is Managing Director of CMP Associates, USA.

CARLOS A. PELÁEZ received the AB in Statistics from the University of Chicago, USA. He published International Financial Architecture with Palgrave, as well as a book on globalization, and an essay on the global electric industry. He is an Associate Editor of the Journal of International Economic Law at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, USA.

Table of Contents

List of Tables	p. ix
List of Abbreviations	p. xi
Acknowledgments	p. xiv
Preface	p. xvi
Leading Essay: Lessons from Adjustment of the Current Account	p. 1
Introduction, Scope and Content	p. 8
Policy Contributions	p. 20
The United States current account	p. 20
Risks	p. 21
Savings and investment	p. 27
Financial flows	p. 38
China in Need of a New Paradigm	p. 56
Introduction	p. 56
The two Chinese economies	p. 59
The Chinese exchange rate	p. 66
The need of a new paradigm	p. 78
Japan after Deflation	p. 81
Summary	p. 81
The lost decade	p. 82
Fear of deflation in Japan, China, Europe and the Federal Reserve Board	p. 83
Monetary policy	p. 95
Exchange rate intervention	p. 107
Structural reform	p. 109
Conclusion	p. 111
The Euro Area	p. 116
Summary	p. 116
The decline of Germany	p. 117
Monetary policy	p. 119
Fiscal imbalance	p. 127
Productivity and structural reform	p. 135
External balance	p. 144
Currency Crashes	p. 147
Sudden stops	p. 147
The vulnerabilities of Mexico	p. 154
Original sin and debt intolerance	p. 162
The balance sheet approach	p. 174
Appendix: Balance sheet effects in practice	p. 178
The Restrictions of Policy of the United States	p. 188
The budget and current account deficits	p. 188
The economic and financial fundamentals of the United States	p. 202
The limitations of policy	p. 212
Policy guidelines	p. 215
Conclusion	p. 218
Appendix	p. 230
Notes	p. 232
Bibliography	p. 234
Index	p. 255
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