Global Trends 2005 : An Owner's Manual for the Next Decade

by Michael J. Mazarr

• ISBN13: 9780312235000
• ISBN10: 0312235003
• Edition: Reprint
• Format: Trade Paper
• Copyright: 2001-03-07
• Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan

Summary

Every few centuries, the world changes in a profound way. Not just gradually, but dramatically and forever. Such periods of rapid change become the markers of new historical eras, as singular and profound as the shift from hunter-gatherer bands to agricultural society and the transition from the agricultural to the industrial era. In the West, we are now living through such a period as our economy moves from one of industry to that of knowledge. Global Trends 2005 looks at the changes this shift produces and lays out a roadmap for the next decade.

Author Biography

Michael J. Mazarr is Director of the New Millennium Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C. He is the author of North Korea and the Bomb.

Table of Contents

Acknowledgments	v
Introduction: A Transformation of Human Society	1	(24)
TREND ONE: THE FOUNDATIONS	25	(46)
A Story of Two Worlds	29	(20)
A Price Spike Economy	49	(16)
A Foundation of Human Perception: Culture	65	(6)
TREND TWO: THE ENGINES OF HISTORY	71	(44)
The Engines: Science and Technology	73	(12)
The Engines: Social and Psychological	85	(8)
Chaos and Complexity Theory	93	(6)
Where Are They Taking Us?	99	(16)
TREND THREE: A HUMAN RESOURCES ECONOMY	115	(42)
A New Kind of Economy	117	(6)
The Reorganization of Work	123	(10)
Other Aspects of the New Economy	133	(18)
Conflict in the Knowledge Era	151	(6)
TREND FOUR: AN ERA OF GLOBAL TRIBES	157	(38)
The Process of Globalization	159	(16)
Tribalism, Fragmentation, and Pluralism	175	(12)
Tribalism within Globalism	187	(8)
TREND FIVE: A TRANSFORMATION OF AUTHORITY	195	(42)
Phase One: The Decline of Hierachical Authorities	197	(16)
Implications: Social Instability and a Political Crisis	213	(4)
Phase Two: The Rise of New Authorities	217	(20)
TREND SIX: A TEST OF HUMAN PSYCHOLOGY	237	(42)
``In Over Our Heads'': Postmodern Life and Human Psychology	239	(10)
A Habit of Alienation	249	(12)
The ``Pessimism Syndrome''	261	(18)
CONCLUSION TOWARD A NEW SOCIETY	279	(18)
A New Kind of Society	283	(12)
The Authors of Our Own Destiny	295	(2)
Notes	297	(26)
Index	323