Good Judgment in Foreign Policy Theory and Application

by Renshon, Stanley A.; Larson, Deborah Welch; Bennett, Andrew; Farnham, Barbara; George, Alexander L.; Haas, Richard N.; Jentleson, Bruce W.; Wayne, Stephen J.; Welch, David A.

• ISBN13: 9780742510067
• ISBN10: 0742510069
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2002-09-04
• Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers

Summary

At the heart of political leadership lies choice. And at the heart of choice lies judgment. A leader's psychology and experience intersect with political realities to produce consequences that can make or break a leader--or a country. Nowhere is judgment more important than in the making of foreign policy. Good judgments can avoid wars, or win them. Poor judgments can start wars or lose them. This book draws together a distinguished group of contributors--psychologists, political scientists, and policymakers--to focus on and understand both good and poor judgment in foreign policy making. Case studies of key leadership decisions combine with theoretical overviews and analyses to offer a highly textured portrait of judgment in action in the all-important foreign policy arena. An up-to-the-minute case on George W. Bush and the war on terrorism applies good judgment theory to contemporary events.

Table of Contents

Preface	vii
Part I: The Nature of Good Judgment
Good Judgment in Foreign Policy: Social Psychological Perspectives	3	(22)
Deborah Welch Larson
Psychological Sources of Good Judgment in Political Leaders: A Framework for Analysis	25	(36)
Stanley A. Renshon
Part II: The Dynamics of Good Judgment: Appraisals and Images
Appraising Good Judgment Before It Matters: Al Gore, George W. Bush, and the 2000 Presidential Campaign	61	(42)
Stanley A. Renshon
Bad Guys and Bad Judgments	103	(24)
Stephen J. Wayne
Part III: Judgments and Misjudgments in Foreign Policy Decisions
Truman and the Berlin Blockade: The Role of Intuition and Experience in Good Foreign Policy Judgment	127	(26)
Deborah Welch Larson
Perceiving the End of Threat: Ronald Reagan and the Gorbachev Revolution	153	(38)
Barbara Farnham
Culture and Emotion as Obstacles to Good Judgment: The Case of Argentina's Invasion of the Falklands/Malvinas	191	(28)
David A. Welch
Part IV: Improving the Quality of Judgment in Foreign Policy Decision Making
Policy Planning: Oxymoron or Sine Qua Non for U.S. Foreign Policy?	219	(28)
Bruce W. Jentleson
Andrew Bennett
Why Foreign Policy (When It Comes to Judgment, at Least) Is Not Pornography	247	(12)
Richard N. Haass
Analysis and Judgment in Policymaking	259	(12)
Alexander L. George
Part V: Reflections on Good Judgment in a Dangerous World
The World According to George W. Bush: Good Judgment or Cowboy Politics?	271	(38)
Stanley A. Renshon
Politics, Uncertainty, and Values: Good Judgment in Context	309	(12)
Deborah Welch Larson
Index	321	(12)
About the Contributors	333