The Gravest Danger Nuclear Weapons

by Drell, Sidney D.; Goodby, James E.; Shultz, George P.

• ISBN13: 9780817944728
• ISBN10: 0817944729
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2003-10-01
• Publisher: Hoover Institution Press

Summary

The mortal danger of nuclear weapons is unique in its terrifying potential for devastation on an unprecedented and unimaginable scale. In this book, Sidney D. Drell and James E. Goodby—each with more than twenty years' experience in national security issues both in public and private capacities—review the main policy issues surrounding nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. They address the specific actions that the community of nations—with American leadership—should take to confront and turn back the nuclear danger that imperils humanity. The nuclear genie, say the authors, cannot be put back in the bottle. Our most urgent task as a nation today is to successfully manage, contain, and reduce the grave danger of nuclear weapons—whether in the hands of adversaries or friendly states. This book hopes to stimulate active public dialogue on this important subject.

Author Biography

Sidney D. Drell is a professor of theoretical physics emeritus at Stanford University's Linear Accelerator Center and a senior fellow at its Hoover Institution.

Table of Contents

Foreword by George P. Shultz	vii
Preface	xi
Acknowledgments	xiii
INTRODUCTION: THE NUCLEAR DANGER	1	(10)
I. FROM THE PAST TO THE PRESENT	11	(18)
Was the Past a Precedent or an Exception?	11	(4)
U.S. Policies	15	(3)
Emerging U.S.-Russian Relations	18	(4)
A Nuclear Nightmare	22	(3)
Containment and Deterrence	25	(4)
II. LOOKING FORWARD	29	(21)
The Security Environment of the Future	29	(3)
Motivations for Acquiring Nuclear Weapons	32	(2)
The Practice of Preventive or Preemptive Military Action	34	(4)
Assessing the Utility of Preventive or Preemptive Military Action	38	(6)
The Terrorist Threat	44	(6)
III. DENIAL POLICES	50	(12)
Denial Policies at the Level of States	50	(3)
The Problem of Monitoring
Nuclear Proliferation Activities	53	(5)
The Role of Ballistic Missile Defense	58	(4)
IV. DEFINING DIPLOMACY'S TASK	62	(11)
The Power of U.S. Example	65	(3)
Mixed Signals Regarding Nuclear Weapons	68	(4)
The Corrosive Effect of a Strategy of Unilateral Action	72	(1)
V. ACHIEVING ROLLBACK: THE INSTRUMENTS OF DIPLOMACY	73	(30)
Targeted Diplomacy	74	(3)
U.S.-Russia Responsibilities	77	(6)
Cooperative Threat Reduction	83	(4)
Global Norms: The Non-Proliferation Treaty	87	(1)
Global Norms: The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty	88	(7)
Building New Regimes: Avoiding Miscalculation and Strengthening Defense Cooperation	95	(2)
International Organizations: The International Atomic Energy Agency	97	(6)
VI. APPLYING RECOMMENDED POLICIES TO SPECIFIC CASES	103	(19)
China	104	(2)
North Korea	106	(4)
Iran	110	(5)
Israel	115	(2)
India and Pakistan	117	(5)
VII. CONCLUSION	122	(3)
A Call to Action	122	(3)
About the Authors	125	(2)
Index	127