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Chip Dickson is a cofounder, Director of Research, and Strategist of DISCERN, an equity research firm. This follows a Wall Street career of twenty years as an Equity Analyst, Strategist, and Associate Director of Research. The firms he worked at included Lehman Brothers and Salomon Smith Barney. His work received high rankings from Institutional Investor and Greenwich Associates. He earned his MBA and BSBA from Babson College and holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation.
Oded Shenkar holds degrees in East-Asian (Chinese) Studies and Sociology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and a PhD from Columbia University. He is currently the Ford Motor Company Chair in Global Business Management and Professor of Management and Human Resources at the Fisher College of Business, The Ohio State University, where he heads the international business area and is also a member of the Centers for Chinese Studies and for Near East Studies. Professor Shenkar has been a Senior Fellow at the University of Cambridge and has taught at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology, Peking University, University of International Business and Economics (Beijing), and the International University of Japan, among many others.
Professor Shenkar has published close to a hundred articles in leading journals. His books include The Chinese Century (Wharton School Publishing), which has been translated into twelve languages, and Copycats: how smart companies use imitation to gain a strategic edge (Harvard Business Press). His work has been cited by The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, The Los Angeles Times, USA Today, The Chicago Tribune, The Boston Globe, Business Week, The Economist, and many others.
Introduction | p. 1 |
Five Major Events Driving Globalization | p. 3 |
The Great Leveraging | p. 15 |
Sources and Forces of the Debt Expansion | p. 23 |
Sources and Endnotes | p. 41 |
Growth Realities | p. 43 |
Cycles | p. 44 |
A Strong Private Sector Is a Must | p. 51 |
Concentration, Dispersion, and Diversification | p. 57 |
Nine Decades of Real Asset Class Returns | p. 63 |
Nine Decades of Real Returns for Eight Asset Classes | p. 64 |
1920s and Before | p. 67 |
1930s | p. 71 |
1940s | p. 77 |
1950s | p. 79 |
1960s | p. 83 |
1970s | p. 87 |
1980s | p. 90 |
1990s | p. 94 |
The 2000s | p. 96 |
Endnotes | p. 100 |
Global Economic Growth | p. 101 |
The United States Emerges as the Leading Global Economy | p. 103 |
Demographic and Other Shifts | p. 105 |
Per Capita Growth | p. 107 |
Endnotes | p. 123 |
Bull and Bear Markets | p. 125 |
Characteristics of an Equity Bull Market | p. 126 |
Characteristics of an Equity Bear Market | p. 127 |
The Great Bull Markets | p. 129 |
A New Beginning and the End of the Malaise: 1982-1987 | p. 134 |
The Information Age, a Peace Dividend, and Y2K: 1990-2000 | p. 136 |
The Big Bear Markets | p. 138 |
Global Growth Drivers | p. 151 |
Leveraging Comparative Advantage | p. 157 |
Analyzing National Environments | p. 157 |
International Market Features | p. 159 |
Three Emerging Countries | p. 167 |
China | p. 167 |
India | p. 173 |
Israel | p. 179 |
Private Sector Composition | p. 183 |
Company Characteristics | p. 184 |
The Sectors and the Industry Groups | p. 185 |
Endnotes | p. 203 |
Industry Evolution | p. 205 |
The Growth of the Financial Services Sector | p. 212 |
Industry Trends and Challenges | p. 218 |
Endnotes | p. 231 |
The Great Deleveraging | p. 233 |
The Last Deleveraging: 1930-1953 | p. 236 |
The Next Deleveraging | p. 239 |
Nonfinancial Corporations | p. 243 |
Market Signals | p. 253 |
Valuation | p. 253 |
Prior Returns | p. 257 |
Interest Rates and Valuation | p. 262 |
Interest Rate Spreads | p. 266 |
Liquidity Metrics | p. 268 |
Gold and the Dollar | p. 271 |
Conclusion | p. 273 |
Rules of the Road | p. 275 |
Know Your Financial Self | p. 278 |
Build a Personal Balance Sheet | p. 280 |
Understand Your Appetite for Risk | p. 282 |
Develop a Saving Discipline | p. 283 |
Preserve Principal | p. 284 |
Develop a Spending Discipline | p. 285 |
Diversify the Portfolio | p. 289 |
Identify the Market Phase-Structural Bull Market or Structural Bear Market | p. 292 |
Apply Basic Investment Disciplines | p. 294 |
Have a Sell Discipline | p. 296 |
Education, Get More | p. 297 |
The Goal Is to Beat Your Financial Benchmark | p. 300 |
Endnotes | p. 304 |
Index | p. 305 |
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