The Great Transformation

Summary

A wide-ranging discussion of the future of the global system as we move away from U.S. dominance toward a multipolar world In The Great Transformation, Dan Steinbock explores two key effects of the current global financial crisis. On the one hand, the international Great Recession is driven by a severe cyclical downturn, which will take the fully developed economies of the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan 5-10 years to overcome. On the other hand, it is characterized by a massive secular transformation, in which the old engines of growth in the world economy are being augmented by the large, emerging economies of China, India, Brazil, and Russia, as well as Indonesia and Vietnam, the oil producing Persian Gulf, and Africas growth centers. In this highly topical account of the ongoing global transformation, Steinbock examines the global impact of this colossal shift of economic and political power from the advanced West to the emerging East. Presents a high-level economic discussion of the forces of global change Explores the transition of economic dominance from West to East and the potential for disruptive instability, increased risk, and rising volatility Explains and examines the stages of growth and the huge pressures they place on the global economy, political leadership, and social cohesion A fascinating study of the changing international financial hierarchy, The Great Transformation offers an insightful, and sometimes alarming, look at what lies ahead.

Preface
Introduction

Chapter 1: The Great Transformation
Diffusion of Economic Power
The Cyclical Narrative
The Global Crisis Impact
The Secular Narrative
Stages of Growth, Classes of Industrializers

Chapter 2: From Tradition to Modern Growth
Eclipse of Tradition and Carnage
Toward Social Contract
Malthusian Stagnation
From Tradition to Modernity
Kinds of Industrializations
Colonial Legacies
Between Tradition and Modernity

Chapter 3: Industrial Growth
Preconditions for Take-Off
The Process of Take-Off
Drive to Technological Maturity
Multipolar Turning Point
Sensitivity to Initial Conditions
Vicissitudes of Nationalism

Chapter 4: Market Growth
Drivers of Market Growth
The Challenge of Debt
Will China and India Suffer from Debt Crises?
Will the Emerging World Suffer from Debt Crises?
Waves of Innovation
Severed Linkage
Market Growth and Global Middle Class
Consumption in the Emerging World
Vicissitudes of Internationalism
Global Crisis as a Transitional Growth Pain

Chapter 5: Sustainability
Toward Systemic Shocks
The Supply Shocks
The Demand Shocks
Demise of the Old Energy Order
United States as Advanced Energy Superpower
China as Emerging Energy Superpower
Global Climate Change
Toward Sustainable Growth
Multi-Decade Race over Resources

Chapter 6: The Rise and Decline of Urban Revolution
Urbanization in the Advanced West
Advanced Global Cities
Urban Revolution in the Emerging World
Emerging Megacities
From Urban Acceleration to Deceleration
The Eclipse of Urbanization

Chapter 7: Eclipse of Demographic Dividends
A Short History of World Population and Growth
Multipolar Populations
Stage of Demographic Transition
Next Four Decades
Maturing, Stationary Population

Chapter 8: Advanced Growth
United States
European Integration
Germany
France
United Kingdom
Italy
Japan

Chapter 9: Emerging Growth (I)
China
India
Large Emerging Economies
Brazil
Russia

Chapter 10: Emerging Growth (II)
Indonesia
Mexico
Turkey
Potential Emerging Economies
Egypt
Nigeria

Chapter 11: Stages of Growth, Waves of Democracies
The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly
Prosperity and Democracy
Early Democratization
Postwar Democratization
Growth and Emerging Democracies
Market Growth
Quest for the Consent of the Governed

Chapter 12: Unipolar Dollar, Multipolar Trade and Investment
Early Globalization and Colonialism
The Golden Age: The Postwar Advanced Economies
The Golden Age: The Post-1980 Emerging World
Multipolar World, Unipolar Currency
Growth and Appreciation
Multipolar Trade and Investment

Chapter 13: The Great Handoff: From the United States to China
A Short History of U.S.–Chinese Relations
The Sino-U.S. Rapprochement
Economic Issues
Strategic Issues
From Unipolarity to Multipolarity

Chapter 14: Emerging Asia: Prosperity or Cold War
Emerging Asia: Shifting Center of Economic Gravity
Asia’s Strategic Gravity
From U.S. Unipolarity to Rebalancing in Asia
Why Containment
Multipolar Approach to War and Peace

Chapter 15: The Clash of Polarities
Toward Global Governance
Toward Multipolar Consensus
Alternative Kuznets Curve
Inequality of Class, Inequality of Location
Income Divergence
The Rich-Poor Country Problem

Appendix: On the Method
Differences with Conventional Growth Accounts
Revised Stages of Growth
Multipolar Growth Poles

About the Author
Index

Supplemental Materials

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