Hurricanes of the North Atlantic Climate and Society

by Elsner, James B.; Kara, A. Birol

• ISBN13: 9780195125085
• ISBN10: 0195125088
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 1999-06-10
• Publisher: Oxford University Press

Summary

Called the greatest storms on the planet, hurricanes of the North Atlantic Ocean often cause tremendous social and economic upheaval in the United States, Mexico, and the Caribbean. And with the increasing development of coastal areas, the impact of these storms will likely increase. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of North Atlantic hurricanes and what they mean to society. It is intended as an intermediary between hurricane climate research and the users of hurricane information. Topics include the climatology of tropical cyclones in general and those of the North Atlantic in particular; the major North Atlantic hurricanes, focusing on U.S. landfalling storms; the prediction models used in forecasting; and societal vulnerability to hurricanes, including ideas for modeling the relationship between climatological data and analysis in the social and economic sciences.

Table of Contents

Hurricane Characteristics	1	(14)
Descriptions	2	(1)
Definitions	3	(7)
Environment	10	(5)
Hurricane Categories and Impacts	15	(22)
Life Cycle	15	(6)
The Saffir/Simpson Scale	21	(3)
Storm Surge	24	(3)
Hurricane Tornadoes	27	(1)
Subtropical Cyclones	28	(2)
Tropical Only Hurricanes	30	(1)
Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricanes	31	(2)
On Frogs and Hurricanes	33	(1)
Extratropical Cyclones	34	(3)
Hurricane Climate Data	37	(15)
Data Sources	37	(3)
Technological Advances	40	(4)
Classifications	44	(5)
Proxy Data	49	(3)
North Atlantic Hurricanes	52	(33)
Abundance	52	(7)
Season Length	59	(4)
Intensity and Duration	63	(3)
Origin	66	(7)
Tracks	73	(8)
Dissipation	81	(4)
Tropical Only Hurricanes	85	(26)
Designation	85	(2)
Abundance	87	(4)
Season Length	91	(2)
Intensity and Duration	93	(3)
Origin	96	(8)
Tracks	104	(1)
Dissipation	105	(6)
Baroclinically Enhanced Hurricanes	111	(26)
Middle Latitude Influence	111	(2)
Abundance	113	(3)
Season Length	116	(2)
Intensity and Duration	118	(4)
Origin	122	(2)
Tracks	124	(1)
Dissipation	125	(2)
Baroclinically Initiated Hurricanes	127	(10)
Major Hurricanes	137	(28)
Maximum Intensity	137	(1)
Abundance	138	(6)
Season Length	144	(1)
Origin and Dissipation	145	(3)
Duration	148	(1)
Tracks	148	(2)
Major U.S. Hurricanes	150	(15)
U.S. Hurricanes	165	(46)
Data Sources	166	(1)
Landfalls	167	(2)
Frequencies	169	(4)
Relation to Basin-Wide Activity	173	(1)
Decadal Variability	174	(14)
Annual and Seasonal Frequencies	188	(1)
Landfalls by Category	189	(1)
Preferred Paths	190	(21)
Hurricanes of Puerto Rico, Jamaica, and Bermuda	211	(29)
Hurricanes of Puerto Rico	213	(12)
Hurricanes of Jamaica	225	(7)
Hurricanes of Bermuda	232	(8)
Hurricane Cycles and Trends	240	(39)
Time Series Analysis	241	(10)
Superposed Epochs	251	(19)
Hurricane Trends	270	(9)
Hurricane Return Periods	279	(30)
Recurrence Intervals	280	(5)
Return Periods	285	(21)
Limitations	306	(1)
Trends	307	(2)
Hurricanes of the Early 1990s	309	(16)
Two Consecutively Active Hurricane Seasons	309	(4)
Comparisons to the Early 1990s	313	(8)
Baroclinically Initiated Hurricanes	321	(1)
Climate Considerations	322	(3)
History of Seasonal Hurricane Forecasting	325	(14)
Physical Relationships	326	(2)
Composite Charts	328	(3)
Satellites and Easterly Waves	331	(1)
Statistical Relationships	332	(1)
Early Prediction Models	333	(2)
Modifications	335	(4)
Seasonal Forecast Models	339	(16)
Measures of Seasonal Activity	340	(1)
Cross Validation	341	(3)
CSU Regression Models	344	(2)
FSU Regression Models	346	(2)
Poisson Random Process	348	(2)
Probabilistic Prediction	350	(5)
Sub Basin Forecast Models	355	(14)
Sub Basins and Coastal Regions	356	(2)
Climate Factors	358	(1)
Base Rates and Forecast Accuracy	359	(3)
Discriminant Analysis	362	(2)
Significant Models	364	(3)
Physical Linkages	367	(2)
Prospects for Extended Range Outlooks	369	(10)
The ARMA Approach	369	(4)
The Iterative Approach	373	(2)
An Experimental Extended Range Forecast	375	(1)
Prospects For Decadal Outlooks	376	(3)
People at Risk	379	(28)
Deadliest North Atlantic Hurricanes	380	(4)
A Hurricane Problem	384	(2)
County Population Changes	386	(15)
City Population Changes	401	(2)
Projected Population Changes	403	(4)
Property at Risk	407	(22)
Hurricane Damage	408	(3)
Hurricane Warnings	411	(3)
Costliest U.S. Hurricanes	414	(7)
Damage Costs	421	(4)
Property Values	425	(4)
Catastrophe Insurance	429	(19)
Insured Losses	430	(1)
Components of Catastrophe Insurance	431	(3)
A New Awareness	434	(3)
Diversification	437	(3)
Risk and Return	440	(2)
Coping Strategies	442	(6)
Integrated Assessment	448	(15)
Expected Utility	449	(2)
Probability	451	(3)
Social Vulnerability to U.S. Hurricanes	454	(1)
Value of Seasonal Predictions	455	(4)
Chaos and Complexity	459	(2)
Simulation	461	(2)
References	463	(18)
Index	481