Ifo Survey Data In Business Cycle And Monetary Policy Analysis

by Sturm, Jan-Egbert; Wollmershaeuser, Timo

• ISBN13: 9783790801743
• ISBN10: 3790801747
• Format: Paperback
• Copyright: 2004-12-30
• Publisher: Physica Verlag

Summary

The business surveys of the ifo Institute (short for "Information und Forschung") are internationally renowned. Every month close to 7,000 enterprises are questioned on their short-term planning and their appraisals of the actual and future business situation. The confidence indicator frequently referred to as the Ifo Business Climate Index is derived from the responses to this Ifo Business Survey. While the Index attracts a lot of attention by practitioners (especially financial market analysts), the use and empirical exploitation of this and other components of Ifo business surveys is - amongst academics - still relatively scarce. The present volume, based on a conference entitled "The Academic Use of Ifo Survey Data", gives examples of timely research questions which can be addressed by qualitative survey data like the monthly Ifo Business Survey. It shows that this type of real-time data can be very informative when it comes to forecasting real economic activity or exploring monetary policy transmission.

Table of Contents

Survey Activity of the Ifo Institute
Gernot Nerb	1	(18)
Part I Business Cycle Analysis
Forecasting Quarterly German GDP at Monthly Intervals Using Monthly Ifo Business Conditions Data
Stefan Mittnik, Peter Zadrozny	19	(30)
Real Wages and Business Cycle Asymmetries
Ulrich Woitek	49	(12)
Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey
Thomas A. Knetsch	61	(32)
Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?
Jan Jacobs, Jan-Egbert Sturm	93	(22)
A Leading Indicator for the Dutch Economy: A Methodological and Empirical Revision of the CPB System
Henk Kranendonk, Jan Bonenkamp, Johan Verhruggen	115	(30)
Part II Monetary Policy Analysis
Firm Size and Monetary Policy Transmission Evidence from German Business Survey Data
Michael Ehrmann	145	(28)
The Role of the Ifo Business Climate Indicator and Asset Prices in German Monetary Policy
Elmer Sterken	173	(30)
Credibility and Transparency of Central Banks: New Results Based on Ifo's World Economic Survey
Sandra Waller. Jakob de Haan	203