India's Emerging Nuclear Posture: Between Recessed Deterrent and Ready Arsenal

by Tellis, Ashley J.

• ISBN13: 9780833027740
• ISBN10: 0833027743
• Format: Hardcover
• Copyright: 2001-08-01
• Publisher: Natl Book Network

Summary

After a hiatus of almost 24 years, India startled the international community by resuming nuclear testing in May 1998. Pakistan responded later the same month with five nuclear tests of its own. The belief that the nuclear tests in South Asia have not only altered the strategic environment in the region but also transformed New Delhi into a nuclear weapons power recurs constantly in Indian strategic and political analyses. This book will address these issues in the context of a broader understanding of India's strategic interests, its institutional structures, and its security goals. The author argues that the truth of the matter is much more complex than most Indian analysts believe and that despite demonstrating and ability to successfully undertake nuclear explosions, India still has some way to go before it can acquire the capabilties that would make it a consequential nuclear power.

Author Biography

Ashley J. Tellis is a senior policy analyst at RAND.

Table of Contents

Preface	v
Figures	ix
Maps	xi
Tables	xiii
Acknowledgments	xv
Acronyms	xxiii
Introduction	1	(8)
Strategic Factors Affecting India's Nuclear Posture	9	(108)
Explaining the Heritage of Nuclear Ambiguity	10	(10)
Understanding the Variables Affecting India's Nuclear Posture	20	(97)
The Global Nuclear Regime	20	(19)
The Regional Nuclear Threat Environment	39	(37)
Relations with Key Countries	76	(13)
Domestic Politics and National Economic Performance	89	(28)
Assessing Alternative Indian Nuclear Postures	117	(134)
Alternatives Involving Denuclearization	125	(47)
Alternative I: Renounce the Nuclear Option	126	(29)
Alternative II: A Regional ``Nuclear-Free Zone''	155	(13)
Evaluating Denuclearization	168	(4)
Alternatives Involving Nuclearization	172	(71)
Alternative III: Maintaining the Nuclear Option	173	(38)
Alternative IV: A Recessed Deterrent	211	(14)
Alternative V: Developing a Ready Nuclear Arsenal	225	(18)
What Will India Choose?	243	(8)
Toward a Force-In-Being (I): Understanding India's Nuclear Doctrine And Future Force Posture	251	(226)
India's Nuclear Doctrine: Concerns, Contexts, and Constraints	259	(107)
The Declaratory Level of Policy	261	(35)
The Operational Level of Policy	296	(70)
Fashioning a Deterrent: The Logic and Structure of the Evolving Force-in-Being	366	(101)
Limited in Size	374	(27)
Separated in Disposition	401	(27)
Centralized in Control	428	(39)
Taking Stock	467	(10)
Toward a Force-In-Being (II): Assessing The Requirements And Adequacy of The Evolving Deterrent	477	(248)
Putting the Pieces Together: What India Has, What India Hasn't	478	(193)
Fissile Materials	478	(20)
Nuclear Weapons	498	(29)
Delivery Systems	527	(55)
Supporting Infrastructure	582	(53)
Procedural Systems	635	(36)
Meeting the Demands of Successful Deterrence	671	(54)
The Strategic Implications of India's Nuclear Posture	725	(42)
Bibliography	767	(96)
Index	863